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2010 Tropical Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Igor Julia Karl |
Cyclone Names Lisa Matthew Nicole Otto Paula Richard Shary Tomas Virginie Walter |
| Saffir-Simpson Category |
Maximum Sustained Wind Speed | Minimum Surface Pressure | Storm Surge | |||
| mph | m/s | kts | mb | ft | m | |
| 1 | 74-95 | 33-42 | 64-82 | greater than 980 | 3-5 | 1.0-1.7 |
| 2 | 96-110 | 43-49 | 83-95 | 979-965 | 6-8 | 1.8-2.6 |
| 3 | 111-130 | 50-58 | 96-113 | 964-945 | 9-12 | 2.7-3.8 |
| 4 | 131-155 | 59-69 | 114-135 | 944-920 | 13-18 | 3.9-5.6 |
| 5 | 156+ | 70+ | 136+ | less than 920 | 19+ | 5.7+ |
#17 Published Tuesday April 20, 2010 at 11:00 am EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Monday 4/19 was 85 deg at Milton Whiting Field AP on the panhandle north region and Tarpon Springs marine station #TARF1 on the central peninsula region. The cold spot this morning was 45 deg at Jacksonville Cecil AP non peninsula north region.
As surmised in discussion #16 heavy thunderstorms broke out across the whole of the inland peninsula yesterday. This was thanks to a nearby weakening cold front, a passing mid level (500 mb) disturbance and associated cold mid level temperature, low level sea breeze, lake and outflow boundary collisions and low level instability due to solar insulation.
Statewide the largest rainfall total that I could find was 1.96" at Wewahitchka 1.6 SW CoCoRaHs station #FL-GF-2 in Gulf County. In the Tampa Bay area the largest rainfall total that I could find was 1.69" at Tampa Delaney Creek SWFWMD #DLNF1 on the central peninsula region. Yesterday at my location six miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa I measured 0.49" of rain. The minimum barometric pressure was 29.85".
For more statewide rainfall data check out http://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ListDailyPrecipReports.aspx and http://kamala.cod.edu/fl .
A similar weather pattern as yesterday exists today for more inland thunderstorm development (30-50%) across the whole of the peninsula with another potent mid level (500 mb) disturbance upstream racing towards the Florida region. However with a slightly drier and more stable atmosphere thunderstorm coverage could be less than yesterday. The biggest threat for severe weather will be in the form of hail and high down bursting straight line wind gusts.
On Wednesday 04/21 the weather will continue warm and humid with a small chance for rain and maximum/minimum temperature in the 80's/60's. Across the north peninsula, non peninsula north and panhandle north regions the weather will be mostly dry with lower humidity levels and warm to mild with maximum/minimum temperature in the 70's/40's to 80's/50's.
During the Thursday-Monday 04/22-26 period the weather will be very warm statewide with less humidity and maximum temperature flirting with 90 deg. for the first time this spring season. Rain probabilities and humidity levels increase statewide during the Sunday-Monday 04/25-26 period. There is a chance for severe weather with the greatest threat across the northern part of the state. There is also a chance into the central peninsula.
#16 Published Monday April 19, 2010 at 11:00 am EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Sunday 4/18 was 87 deg at Tallahassee AP COOP on the panhandle north region. The cold spot this morning was 52 deg at Quincy FAWN on the panhandle north region.
The central and south peninsula regions saw a significant rainfall event on Sunday 04/18. As surmised in discussion #13 the heaviest rainfall occurred across the south peninsula region.
Statewide the largest rainfall total that I could find was 4.04" at Pembroke Pines 2.4 ESE CoCoRaHs station # FL-BW-21 in Broward County. I found 5 rainfall totals above 3.00", 27 rainfall totals above 2.00" and to many to count above 1.00". For more statewide rainfall data check out http://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/ListDailyPrecipReports.aspx and http://kamala.cod.edu/fl .
Yesterday at my location six miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa I measured 0.34" of rain. The minimum barometric pressure was 29.85". Polk County missed out on the heaviest rainfall. The largest rainfall total that I could find here in Polk County was 0.68" at Solivita 2.0 SSW CoCoRahs #FL-PK-22. Nearby Hillsborough County received significant rainfall totals as large as 1.86".
With a weak cold front in the region coupled with passing mid level (500 mb) disturbances in the subtropical jet stream, rain and thunder chances 40-60%will continue for the central and south peninsula region during the Monday-Wednesday 4/19-21 period. The weather will continue warm and humid with maximum/minimum temperature in the 80's/60's. Across the north peninsula, non peninsula north and panhandle north regions the weather will be mostly dry with lower humidity levels and warm to mild with maximum/minimum temperature in the 70's/50's to 80's/60's.
During the Thursday-Monday 04/22-26 period the weather will be very warm statewide with less humidity and maximum temperature flirting with 90 deg. for the first time this spring season. Rain probabilities and humidity levels increase statewide during the Sunday-Monday 04/25-26 period.
#15 Published Sunday April 18, 2010 at 1:30 pm EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Saturday 4/17 was 85 deg at Milton Whiting Field on the panhandle north region. The cold spot this morning was 48 deg at Mossy Head CWOP DW4491 on the panhandle north region.
Paragraph #4 in discussion #13 is still valid.
#14 Published Saturday April 17, 2010 at 12:00 pm EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Friday 4/16 was 86 deg at Venice COOP on the central peninsula region. The cold spot this morning was 48 deg at Jacksonville Cecil AP on the non panhandle north region.
Paragraphs #3 & 4 in discussion #13 are still valid.
#13 Published Friday April 16, 2010 at 11:00 am EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Thursday 4/15 was 86 deg at Venice COOP on the central peninsula region. The cold spot this morning was 46 deg at Jacksonville Cecil AP on the non panhandle north region.
Yesterday at my location six miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa it was also quite breezy with a maximum wind gust of 28 mph from the ENE.
During the Friday-Saturday 04/16-17 period it will be a bit breezy but not as much as on previous days, warm with maximum/minimum temperature in the 80's/60's and mostly dry. There will be a very small chance <20% of a passing shower.
With an approaching weak cold front and extra tropical surface low pressure system rain 60-50% south, 40-30% central and 20-10% north and thunder chances increase for the Sunday-Monday 04/18-19 period, then back to drier and a bit cooler weather behind the cold front during the Tuesday-Wednesday 04/20-21 period. The extra tropical surface low pressure system will cross the south peninsula region on Sunday and it looks like this is where the heaviest rainfall and thunder will occur. Rainfall could be heavy with localized flooding.
#12 Published Thursday April 15, 2010 at 12:30 pm EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Wednesday 4/14 was 87 deg at Venice COOP on the central peninsula region. The cold spot this morning was 52 deg at Crestview AP on the panhandle north region.
Yesterday at my location six miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa it was also quite breezy with a maximum wind gust of 31 mph from the ENE.
Paragraph #3 in discussion #11 is still valid.
#11 Published Wednesday April 14, 2010 at 11:00 am EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Tuesday 4/13 was 88 deg at Venice COOP on the central peninsula region. The cold spot this morning was 52 deg at Lake Woodruff Dam RAWS on the central peninsula region.
Yesterday at my location six miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa this morning I measured only 0.06" of rain. Several showers moved through the area and I got lucky with one passing directly overhead. It was also quite breezy with a maximum wind gust of 28 mph from the east.
During the Thursday-Saturday 04/15-17 period it will be breezy, warm with maximum/minimum temperature in the 80's/60's and dry. However there will be a very small chance <20% of a passing shower. With an approaching weak cold front rain and thunder chances increase for the Sunday-Monday 04/18-19 period, then back to dry and a bit cooler weather behind the cold front during the Tuesday-Wednesday 04/20-21 period.
Weather forecast models are hinting at a return to cooler and wetter weather beginning around Thursday 04/22.
#10 Published Tuesday April 13, 2010 at 10:30 am EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Monday 4/12 was 87 deg at Tallahassee AP COOP on the panhandle north region. The cold spot this morning was 45 deg at Mossy Head CWOP DW4491 on the panhandle north region.
Yesterday at my location six miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa it was also quite breezy with a maximum wind gust of 31 mph from the ENE.
Paragraph #3 in discussion #9 is still valid.
#9 Published Monday April 12, 2010 at 11:00 am EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Sunday 4/11 was 88 deg at Devil's Garden COOP on the south peninsula region. The cold spot this morning was 44 deg at Mossy Head CWOP DW4491 on the panhandle north region.
Today will be another warm day state wide with maximum temperatures in the 80's. Rain and thunder probabilities are 0-10% for the panhandle north, non peninsula north, north peninsula and north central peninsula regions. 20-30% for the central peninsula region, 40-50% for the south central peninsula region and 60-70% across the south peninsula region and Keys.
For the Tuesday-Monday 04/12-19 period the weather will be warm and dry state wide. Maximum temperatures will be in the 80's statewide, minimum temperatures will be on the 40'-50's north, 50's-60's central and 60's-70's south.
#8 Published Sunday April 11, 2010 at 11:00 am EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Saturday 4/10 was 88 deg at Cache and Oasis RAWS on the south peninsula region. The cold spot this morning was 40 deg at Crestview AP on the panhandle north region.
Paragraph #3 in discussion #7 is still valid.
#7 Published Saturday April 10, 2010 at 11:00 am EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Friday 4/9 was 90 deg at Ft. Lauderdale Executive AP on the south peninsula region. The cold spot this morning was 37 deg at Jacksonville Cecil AP on the non peninsula north region.
Slightly cooler air arrives for the Saturday-Sunday 4/10-11 period, mainly north of a Tampa to Melbourne line.
However rain chances increase again for the Monday-Wednesday 04/12-14 period as the old stalled cold front moves back north as a warm front in conjunction with a mid level (500 mb) shortwave trough sweeping across the peninsula. Right now it looks like most of the rain and thunder will be focused across the southern half of the peninsula. Rain probabilities are 60-50% south, 40-30% central, 20-10% north.
#6 Published Friday April 9, 2010 at 11:00 am EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Thursday 4/8 was 89 deg at Brighton Reservation on the south central peninsula region. The cold spot this morning was 52 deg at Ft. Green COOP on the central peninsula region.
During yesterday through early this morning scattered significant rainfall fell across the panhandle NW, non peninsula north, north peninsula and north central peninsula regions. This occurred as a mid level shortwave trough rounded the base of a longwave trough extending south into the northern part of the state. Further from the energy lighter showers fell across the central and south central peninsula regions.
Here at my location six miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa this morning I measured only 0.07" of rain. For more statewide rainfall data check out the CoCoRaHs web page at http://www.cocorahs.org/Maps/GetMap.aspx?state=FL&type=precip&date=04/09/2010&cp=0 .
At 11:00 am EDT the weak cold front lies across the central peninsula region from a Melbourne to Sarasota line and will move slowly SE to across the south peninsula region as the day progresses. Ahead of the weakening cold front as daytime heating occurs creating more low level instability coupled with low level convergence, some heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms may break out across the south central peninsula region.
Slightly cooler air arrives for the Saturday-Sunday 4/10-11 period, mainly north of a Tampa to Melbourne line. However rain chances increase again for the Monday-Wednesday 04/12-14 period as the old stalled cold front moves back north as a warm front. Right now it looks like most of the rain and thunder will be focused across the southern half of the peninsula, 70-60% south, 50-40% central, 30-20% north.
#5 Published Thursday April 8, 2010 at 11:00 am EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Wednesday 4/7 was 91 deg at Miles City RAWS on the south peninsula region. The cold spot this morning was 53 at Cross City AP on the north peninsula region.
Here at my location six miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa this morning I had a very balmy minimum temperature of 65 deg. Yesterday's maximum temperature was 85 deg and with the dewpoint as high as 63 deg it actually felt summer like, with beads of sweat pouring forth on my forehead as I worked in my flower garden.
The next weak cold front will move across the northern part of the state today with a slight chance of severe weather and then rest of the state on Friday 4/10, with thunder and rain probabilities of 60-50% north, 40-30% central and 20-10% south. Slightly cooler air arrives for Saturday 4/10. However rain chances may increase again for the Sunday-Monday 04/11-12 period as the cold front moves back north as a warm front.
We no longer have the subtropical jet stream racing overhead the Florida region. So the only jet stream energy available to produce strong cold fronts with lot's of rain across the Florida region is the polar jet stream which is located far to the north. So unless the subtropical jet stream redevelops, from hear on out cold fronts will be weaker and weaker with time as the sun climbs ever higher in the sky.
#4 Published Wednesday April 7, 2010 at 10:00 am EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Tuesday 4/6 was 88 deg at Marianna AP on the panhandle west region and also at Lake George RAWS on the central peninsula region. The cold spot this morning was 49 deg at NZ4O Nobleton East on the central peninsula region.
Paragraph #2 in discussion #3 is still valid.
#3 Published Tuesday April 6, 2010 at 2:00 pm EDT
Tentatively the warm spot in the state on Monday 4/5 was 90 deg at Bloxham RAWS, Chipley COOP and New Hope COOP on the panhandle NW region. The cold spot this morning was 46 deg at Crestview AP on the panhandle NW region and NZ4O Nobleton East on the central peninsula region.
Rain chances look a bit higher now ahead of the next cold front which arrives on Friday 4/10, with 60-50% north, 40-30% central and 20-10% south. Cooler weather arrives on Saturday morning 4/11 and continues through Wednesday morning 4/14. Look for 70's/30's-40's north, 70's/40's-80's/50's central and 80's/50's-60's south.
#2 Published Monday April 5, 2010 at 2:00 pm EDT
In discussion #1 the minimum temperature of 22 deg at Crestview AP and 33 deg at my location in Lakeland was April Fools B.S. Either nobody caught it or nobody cared.
We were blessed with a sunny sky, warm temperature and reasonable humidity on Easter Sunday 4/4, the holiest of holy days for me as a born again Christian. The warm spot was High Springs COOP with 88 deg. and the cold spot was also at High Springs COOP with 47 deg on the non peninsula north region. The only annoyance for me personally was the high pollen level from the five oak trees in my yard. The pollen rained down as we held the Easter egg hunt for the grandchildren.
It looks like the warm and dry weather will continue through the Tuesday-Monday 4/6-12 period, with only a small chance of rain and slightly cooler weather with the passage of a weak cold front beginning on Friday 4/9.
Weather forecast models are hinting at a return to a colder and wetter period beginning around Tuesday 4/13 but that is so far down the road that we can ignore that solution for now.
On May 1st I will issue my outlook for the upcoming hurricane season.
#1 Published Thursday April 1, 2010 at 10:00 am EDT
The cold spot in the state early this morning was 22 deg at Crestview AP in the western part of the panhandle north region. Wow talk about a temperature anomaly for April 1st!
Here at my location six miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa I had a minimum temperature of 33 deg, which missed the record minimum for the date and month by only one degree.
NOTE!!! Standard Disclaimer-
As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2004, I do not expend the $$$ resources necessary for access to in depth raw weather forecasting data nor the time necessary to conduct an in depth daily meteorological synoptic analysis. Therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range and a 120 hour forecast accuracy in the low 90% range. To put it in simple terms my weather forecasting skill is a bit rusty {:<))
This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will publish by 11:00 AM EDT/EST and then again as further updates are necessary. On some days I will not publish anything at all, it will always depend on what's going on with the weather. Also this technical weather discussion/forecast looks into the near and mid range time wise and also at times the distant future, as well as discusses a bit of the past. It is not intended to be a resource for in depth daily weather forecasts for every location in Florida. For that consult your local National Weather Service forecast office.
As weather forecasting is still an inexact science, these "not for profit" discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property,
are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This discussion herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2010 by Thomas F. Giella, retired Meteorologist, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without advanced permission as long as proper credit is given.
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