You can contact me
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Meteorologist
Lakeland, FL at
meteorologist at tampabay dot rr dot com

#4 Published Tuesday 12/07/04 at 10:00 am EST.

As all know we have had mild weather so far in Florida in Fall 2004. But as I've warned for a good while now this pattern will come to an end, rather abruptly at that. The weather pattern will do a complete flip beginning on Saturday 12/11/04 to much colder and wetter and will last for the next 15-20 days.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion Update
#2004-011A Published Wednesday 02/25/2004 at 11:00 PM

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

On Monday 02/23/04 I posted:

The SOI had shifted back to positive a month or so ago and the end result was the cold period between 2/15-20/04 and a less potent subtropical jet stream and therefore weaker low latitude winter storm systems. As an end result here in SW Plant City I’ve measured only 0.90” of rainfall so far this month. By the way there is an approximate three week lag in sensible weather after the SOI switches sign. Well the SOI has now shifted back to negative again and you guessed it a return to a more potent subtropical jet stream and stronger winter storm systems. And just in time for Florida’s severe weather season peak.

In any event the (STJ) subtropical jet stream is definitely strengthening again and California can verify that fact, as they have getting slammed by a series of strong winter storm systems deep into the south. Looking within the STJ there are at least four shortwave impulses racing across the southern part of the country towards Florida.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion
#2004-011 Published Monday 02/23/2004 at 4:00 PM

Valid Through Sunday 02/22/04

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

I haven’t published an outlook since Thursday 02/19/04 due to time constraints involving

my website design business. Maybe I should change the name of this discussion to the Florida Weekly Weather Discussion!

First a hindcast-

The period Friday-Sunday 02/20-22/04 was cold to cool across the panhandle north

region and northern peninsula, cool to mild on the central peninsula and mild to warm across the southern peninsula. On Saturday a weak cold front stalled across the central peninsula, with a very large dewpoint gradient, then moved back northward as a warm front on Sunday.

As follows are minimum temperatures during the period at my suburban location in SW Plant City east of Tampa on the central peninsula:

20^th- 39

21^st- 59

22^nd- 51

23^rd- 49

Also for East Nobleton on the north central peninsula:

20^th- 32

21^st- 52

22^nd- 44

23^rd- 42

Now a forecast-

Remember El Nino? Or better yet the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). It’s oscillation

between a positive and negative sign this winter season has given us cool and wet periods and cold and dry periods, though winter 2003-2004 has been milder over the southern peninsula, as is often the case. We were also shielded from the endless Arctic outbreaks that have occurred in North America this winter.

The SOI had shifted back to positive a month or so ago and the end result was the cold period between 2/15-20/04 and a less potent subtropical jet stream and therefore weaker low latitude winter storm systems. As an end result here in SW Plant City I’ve measured only 0.90” of rainfall so far this month. By the way there is an approximate three week lag in sensible weather after the SOI switches sign. Well the SOI has now shifted back to negative again and you guessed it a return to a more potent subtropical jet stream and stronger winter storm systems. And just in time for Florida’s severe weather season peak.

In any event the (STJ) subtropical jet stream is definitely strengthening again and California can verify that fact, as they have getting slammed by a series of strong winter storm systems deep into the south. Looking within the STJ there are at least four shortwave impulses racing across the southern part of the country towards Florida.

Impulse #1 is producing an area of thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast from LA through MS, AL and panhandle Florida today. It’s not moving very quickly eastward as we currently have a weak high pressure heat ridge block along the eastern seaboard. By the way this ridge is ensuring that maximum temperatures exceed 80-85 deg. on the peninsula during the next 72 hour period. Impulse #2 is across central TX and #3 and 4 over the desert SW.

With only the GFS-5 (old AVN) forecast model even remotely close to verifying the current weather pattern, models are basically useless in helping to determine which disturbance will be the “big blow” for Florida. BUT using the GFS-5, north Florida may see a 150+ mph jet maximum at 250 mb (approximately 34,000 feet up), a 115+ mph jet maximum at 500 mb (approximately 18000 feet up) and a 50+ mph low level jet at 850 mb (approximately 5000 ft). Also a CAPE reaching 3000+, a helicity of 250+, a lifted index of (LI) of -4 to -6, precipitable water (PW) exceeding 1.50” and surface dew points approaching 70 deg. And also a 850 mb temperature of 0 deg. C approaching the central Gulf Coast on the left side of the cutoff low pressure center. It appears that a developing high pressure REX Block will force the last and main storm system south and east across the neck of the Florida peninsula, a bad thing for severe weather potential for the Florida peninsula.

In any event the evolving stormy pattern is very complicated and tough to nail down at this moment. My best guess would be Tuesday 02/24/04 as the day and the panhandle north as the bulls eye for excessive rainfall and severe weather potential. Wednesday 02/25/04 for the north and north central peninsula, followed by the central and southern peninsula overnight and into Thursday 02/26/04.

Following the storms will be much cooler weather through Thursday-Sunday 02/26-29/04, with temperatures 5-10 deg. below normal. As a matter of fact North Georgia into western North Carolina and points NE ward will probably see a little winter mix of precipitation.

Briefly, future weather for the month will be very changeable due to a progressive (fast moving) stoked up sub tropical jet stream pattern, due to the negative SOI. We will experience a roller coaster pattern of strong warm ups followed by winter storms, severe weather and strong cool downs.  

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
SKYWARN Observer HIL-249
SWFWMD Observer #574
Plant City, FL, USA

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Florida Daily Weather Discussion:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
Plus Daily MF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion
#2004-010 Published Thursday 02/19/2004 at 12:00 PM

Valid Through Sunday 02/22/04

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

I haven’t published an outlook since Friday 02/13/04 due to time constraints.

I began an update on Monday 02/16/04, to cover the recent rainfall event but got sidetracked and never finished it. To rehash it quickly though, the winter storm system that raced across the state on Saturday-Sunday 02/14-15/04 was more disorganized due to a positive SOI, but substantial rainfall fell across the whole of the state. Rainfall totals of 0.50- 1.50” were common, with quite a few totals in the 2.00-3.00” range. Here in suburban SW Plant City I measured 0.88”.

A few weeks ago I began discussing how our weather pattern would eventually turn colder again during the second half of the month, well that has come to fruition. Seems I’ve been pretty lucky at forecasting major weather pattern changes several weeks in advance this winter season.

The coldest minimum temperatures of the month occurred early this morning. The state cold spot was 24 deg. at Ft. White on the non panhandle north region and also at East Nobleton on the north central peninsula.

Here are some selected Florida minimum temperatures for Thursday morning 02/19/2004.

I didn’t have time this morning to collect more minimum temperature readings. All locations are inland and rural.

*- My Private Station Network

#- Private Stations with Accurate Instruments and Exposures

Panhandle North-

Crestview AP- 25

Non Panhandle North & North East-

#Fort White- 24

 

North Central Peninsula-
Brooksville South AP- 29

*East Nobleton- 24

#Holder- 29

Inverness Climate St- 30

Mount Plymouth- 30

Central Peninsula-

Balm FAWN- 32

*Plant City North (Knights Station)- 27

*Plant City West- 29

*Plant City SW- 31

*Darby- 26

South Central Peninsula-
Archbold Bio St- 26
#Old Venus- 26

South Peninsula/Northern Everglades-
Immokalee FAWN- 37

South Peninsula/Southern Everglades-
West Kendall AP- 44

Briefly, future weather for the rest of the month will be very changeable due to a progressive (fast moving) jet stream pattern. We will experience a roller coaster pattern of strong warm ups followed by winter storms and strong cool downs. I’ll expound in more detail next time around.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
SKYWARN Observer HIL-249
SWFWMD Observer #574
Plant City, FL, USA

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Florida Daily Weather Discussion:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
Plus Daily MF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2004-007 Published Thursday 02/05/2004 at 11:00 AM Valid through Sunday 02/08/04

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

First a quick weather review. Yet another heavy snowstorm has hammered the Mid Atlantic and New England regions in the past 48 hours. I saw reports of up to 30” in parts of PA.  Yet another winter storm is eying the same regions during the next 48-72 hour period. The winter of 2002-2003 was very snowy for the Northeastern U.S. and it looks like the winter of 2003-2004 may surpass last year. More proof of global warming, NOT:<))

Here in Florida a large and fairly disorganized El Nino enhanced winter storm dropped heavy rainfall totals statewide on Friday-Saturday 01/30-31/04. Totals of 1.00-3.00” were common across the central peninsula with 2.00-4.00” totals across the southern peninsula.

The first four days of February 2004 have been cold to cool across the north, cool to mild across the central peninsula and mild to warm across the southern peninsula. On Wednesday afternoon 02/04/04 maximum temperatures exceeded 80 deg., across the southern peninsula with Naples hitting 85 deg, thanks to a nearby 588 dcm high pressure ridge.

January 2004 rainfall totals ended up above normal for most of the state, with temperature below normal. Here at my location in suburban SW Plant City east of Tampa the month rainfall total was 4.00”, +1.49” above normal. Month temperature averaged out at 57.6 deg., -3.6 deg. below normal.

Looking down the road in the near term as I write this outlook, another El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream winter storm system is racing eastward across the Gulf Of Mexico towards Florida. This morning we are seeing a rapid return of moisture from the Pacific Ocean in association with the subtropical jet stream. At the surface we are seeing a strong SE wind flow that will eventually turn to the south. Trailing the strong warm front currently moving northward across the northern peninsula maximum temperatures should exceed 80 deg. today on the whole of the peninsula. Here in SW Plant City the temperature had already reached 70 deg. by 9:00 AM!

Looking at the ETA forecast model which was verifying at 7:00 am this morning, during the next 48 hours we should see a 50+ mph 850-950 mb low level jet, and be in the divergent right rear quadrant of a 150+ mph jet max at 500 mb and a 175 mph+ jet max at 250 mb. Jet maxes act to suck air upwards in a vertical fashion in what we call vertical velocities and aid in strong thunderstorm development. As far as severe weather prediction parameters, helicity values already exceed 150 and are expected to flirt with 500, the lifted index is a 0 to -1 and is expected to reach -3 to -5, the CAPE energy index is 1500 and expected to reach 3000. Plus dew points will approach 70 deg. This all adds up to another widespread heavy rainfall event with an embedded squall line of thunderstorms and severe weather potential. Best chances for severe weather should be across the north on Friday, east peninsula Friday evening and south peninsula on Saturday.

Much colder weather roars into the state on early Saturday morning 02/07/04 behind yet another strong cold front. As a matter of fact some ocean effect snow showers are possible early Sunday morning 02/08/04 along the west coast of Florida between approximately Weeki Wachee and Cedar Key, as a cold onshore wind flow, subfreezing temperatures at 850 mb and relatively warm shelf ocean temperatures in the 50’s act in unison to produce a broken deck of snow shower producing stratocumulus. A similar snow shower event occurred on the east coast of Florida between Cape Canaveral and St. Augustine in January 2003. On early Monday morning the subfreezing temperature line should extend southward into the inland rural central peninsula north of I-4, with some isolated pockets of subfreezing temperatures across the inland rural south central peninsula.

Looking further down the road at teleconnection patterns into mid February 2004 the endless see saw pattern of pressure system location continues. The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) (El Nino/La Nina) has now shifted back to a positive phase. This signals colder and drier weather for Florida. The Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern will become positive. This also signals colder and drier weather for Florida. However the current strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will both shift back to a more neutral or slightly cold phase and this signals warmer weather for most of North America including Florida.

What does all of this mean? A more normal winter weather pattern for the eastern 2/3’s of the U.S. and Florida for the second half of February 2004, with possibly the coldest weather of the winter season so far for Florida BUT with no devastating Siberian Express Arctic blasts as the air masses with be Cp. The first half of March 2004 should see changeable cool to mild and wet weather return for Florida. Yes another shift back to a negative SOI.

It’s hard to believe when you consider how long bitter Arctic air has been on the weather map in North America this winter season, BUT it appears that Florida will be spared from any of the record breaking Arctic blasts this season. The weak El Nino with it’s +1-2 deg. F above normal warm Pacific Ocean temperature anomaly will have worked it’s protective magic for Florida's multi billion $$$ agriculture industry.

Take Care,

Thomas F. Giella

Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster

SKYWARN Observer HIL-249

SWFWMD Observer #574

Plant City, FL, USA

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Florida Daily Weather Discussion:

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive

Plus Daily MF Radio Propagation Outlook:

http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.  

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2004-006 Published Friday 01/30/2004 at 2:00 PM Valid through Sunday 02/01/04

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Sorry for the ten day period of silence. I suffered a double whammy of a crashed hard drive on my computer and a massive Roadrunner ISP outage in my area.

First a quick weather review. Virtually all of Canada, New England and parts of the Midwest and Mid Atlantic regions have seen an incredible run of record breaking cold and snowy weather. An endless series of brutally cold Arctic air masses have crossed the North Pole region from the Siberian Arctic region of Russia into North America. The end result has been an approximate four week period of almost unprecedented subzero temperature.

I think we have to go back to the 1930-1940 period to see a comparable period of continuous intense cold weather, definitely proof of man induced global warming! I say that sarcastically as the global warming scare crowd now tie all weather extremes warm and cold and wet and dry to global warming. With that kind of junk science argument you just can’t lose!

The incredibly brutal subzero regime has now shifted back to the west and south as the N.E. U.S. finally starts to warm up very slowly. Actual minimum temperatures during the past 48 hour period have been colder then -40 deg. below zero F in parts of Minnesota and North Dakota and colder then -60 deg. F in parts of Saskatchewan, Canada!!!

Five or six weeks back I began discussing how El Nino would begin asserting itself by the third week of January 2004. Well that concept came to fruition, as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is still into a negative phase. This meant a stoked up subtropical jet stream and cool and wet weather for Florida, with no devastating hard freeze events and this has occurred.

Here is a sample of the cold and wet weather on the central Florida peninsula as observed by me here in suburban SW Plant City east of Tampa. As follows are minimum temperatures and rainfall.

07- 40 deg

08- 38

09- 46 0.65”

10- 46

11- 33

12- 39

13- 38

14- 35

15- 42

16- 44

17- 43

18- 54 1.30”

19- 53 0.33”

20- 39

21- 36

22- 35

23- 36

24- 32

25- 41

26- 54

27- 48 0.82”

28- 35

29- 27

30- 50 0.01”

Here is a sample of the cold weather on the north central Florida peninsula as observed by a family member in rural East Nobleton NE of Brooksville. As follows are minimum temperatures.

07- 32 deg

08- 30

09- 38

10- 37

11- 25

12- 31

13- 27

14- 28

15- 35

16- 37

17- 36

18- 47

19- 48

20- 32

21- 29

22- 28

23- 29

24- 25

25- 34

26- 47

27- 41

28- 32

29- 18

30- 43

Like December 2003 January 2004 will end up at least 5 deg. or more below normal.

The rainfall events on 01/18-19/04 and on 01/27/04 were classic stoked up subtropical jet stream El Nino enhanced widespread rainfall events, with 1.00-2.00+ rainfall totals and thunder.

The cold minimum temperatures in Florida on Thursday morning 01/29/04 were tied with the 12/21/03 cold spell as the coldest weather of the season so far. The cold spot in the state on Thursday morning was 15 deg. at Fort White in the non panhandle north. On the central peninsula the cold spot was 18 deg. at East Nobleton. On the southern peninsula the cold spot was 38 deg. at Ortona. Here in suburban SW Plant City east of Tampa I saw 27 deg. with frost.

Other notable minimum temperatures on the central peninsula include 20 deg. at Holder, 22 deg. at Darby, 23 deg. at Brooksville and Knights Station, 24 deg. at Inverness and Umatilla and 25 deg. at Deland and Mount Plymouth.

The sub freezing line extended southward into the inland rural citrus growing region on the south central peninsula. Old Venus saw 27 deg. with Archbold at 28 deg.

This airmass was of Arctic origin and did not show up at the 850 mb level
where temperatures were between 39 and 46 deg. F. The airmass slipped underneath Jet stream steering winds so to speak.

Looking down the road in the nearer term as I write this outlook, another El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream winter storm system is racing eastward across the Gulf Of Mexico towards Florida. We are currently in the divergent right rear quadrant of a 165 mph subtropical jet stream maximum. It’s surface reflection is a developing surface low pressure system in the gulf. From it we have a stationary frontal boundary that stretches eastward across the southern peninsula. The heaviest rainfall and thunder for today should be focused along this frontal boundary. On the cooler and drier side of the front on the central peninsula we will see only light over running rain showers.

On Saturday 01/31/04 rain and thunder chances will increase from south to north on the peninsula as the stationary front over the south begins moving northward as a warm front.

Some isolated severe thunderstorms may fire off along the warm frontal boundary. The best chance for heavy rainfall over the central and northern peninsula will occur overnight and into the morning hours of Sunday 02/01/04. A weak cold front will sweep across the state on Sunday-Monday 02/01-02/04 bringing an end to the rain and usher in chilly weather again.

Another El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream winter storm system will arrive on Thursday 02/05/04.

Through the first full week of February 2003 the weather pattern will be one of cool to mild with occasional wet periods BUT still no devastating cold waves.

Looking further down the road into mid February 2003 at teleconnection patterns, the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) (El Nino/La Nina) will have shifted back to a positive phase. This signals colder and drier weather for Florida. The Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern will become more positive. This also signals colder and drier weather for Florida. However the current negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will both shift back to a more neutral or slightly positive phase and this signals warmer weather for most of North America including Florida.

What does all of this mean? A more normal winter weather pattern for the eastern 2/3’s of the U.S. and Florida, with possibly the coldest weather of the winter season so far BUT with no devastating Siberian Express Arctic blasts. It’s hard to believe when you consider how long bitter Arctic air has been on the weather map in North America this winter season, BUT it appears that Florida will be spared from any of the record breaking Arctic blasts this season. The weak El Nino with it’s +2 deg. F above normal warm Pacific Ocean temperature anomaly will have worked it’s protective magic for Florida multi billion $$$ agriculture industry.

Stay tuned though, as our Martian neighbors may break our second exploratory surface robot and personally deliver both of them back to us. If that happens I forecast an extended period of fright :<)

Take Care,

Thomas F. Giella

Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster

SKYWARN Observer HIL-249

SWFWMD Observer #574

Plant City, FL, USA

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Florida Daily Weather Discussion:

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive

Plus Daily MF Radio Propagation Outlook:

http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion
#2004-005 Published Monday 01/19/2004 at 6:00 PM Valid through Thursday
01/22/04

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Several weeks or more back I began discussing El Nino asserting itself by
the third week of January 2004. Well that concept is coming to fruition, as
the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is deeply into a negative phase and has
been headed in that direction for approximately three weeks. What does this
mean? A stoked up subtropical jet stream and cool and wet weather for
Florida, with no devastating hard freeze events.

During the past 48 hour period Florida has seen the most vigorous El Nino
induced winter storm of the season. We have seen a 160+ mph jet stream max
overhead at 250 mb and a 110+ mph jet stream max at 500 mb. Jet stream maxes
act like large vertical vacuum cleaners sucking air vertically and assisting
in creating thunderstorms and rainfall.

Sunday 01/18/04 saw widespread heavy rainfall across the whole of the state
with thunder, high winds and hail. 1.00-2.00" rainfall totals were very
common, with many areas receiving 2.00-2.75" of rainfall. Here in suburban
SW Plant City east of Tampa I measured 1.30". Today Monday 01/19/04 has seen
two more rounds of scattered thunderstorms with hail on the peninsula,
thanks to a second 500 mb shortwave trough and two vorticity maximums. Here
in suburban SW Plant City east of Tampa I have measured 0.33" of rainfall.

We currently have a cold front sweeping across the state ushering in much
colder weather. We should see near or slightly below freezing minimum
temperatures in inland rural areas of the central peninsula north of S.R. 54
for early Wednesday morning 01/21/04 and then again on Saturday morning
01/24/04. By Sunday-Monday 01/25-26/04 we should see yet another vigorous El
Nino enhanced winter storm system bring more beneficial rainfall.

Looking down the road over the next two weeks we should see a cool and wet
period, as El Nino continues to exert it's influence on the sunshine state.
My thinking back in the late fall was for no more devastating hard freeze
threats for the remainder of the winter season from February 2004 onward,
thanks to a persistent El Nino pattern but I'm not as confident in that
concept now.

To back up a little for the moment, as most of us know the NE U.S. and New
England has seen record breaking Arctic cold in the past week, with minimum
temperature records falling left and right. Some of minimum temperature
readings were the coldest in 50 years and it looks like most of New England
will see January 2004 as the coldest January on record, amazing! If we look
northward into Canada even colder weather has been seen and lasting 2-3
weeks! It's that darned global warming thing again.

The weather pattern that brought the Arctic Express across the North Pole
into Canada, the Great Lakes region and New England would normally have
funneled the Arctic air right into the Florida. That's right we missed an
historic freeze event. Why? Because of the recent surge in the negative
SOI/El Nino pattern. The current El Nino amounts to only a +1-2 deg. F
Pacific Ocean surface water temperature anomaly but that's been enough to
protect the central and southern Florida peninsula from Arctic air
intrusions. However the north and north central regions did see an Arctic
air intrusion before Christmas 2003, with Ft. White seeing a minimum
temperature of 14 deg., and Holder and East Nobleton seeing 19 deg. on
12/21/03.

Recently and for at least the next two to three weeks we are going to see a
negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and also a negative North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO). Both funnel Arctic air into the U.S. The Pacific North
America (PNA) pattern which has been positive, also aids in funneling Arctic
air into the eastern 2/3's of the U.S. The PNA pattern is now going into a
negative signature, which means that the coldest air will shift into the
Great Plains region east of the Rocky Mountains. Normally Florida would see
a heat ridge build into the region in response to the negative PNA, much
like the period 12/29/03-01/04/04 that saw a period of maximum temperatures
in the mid 70's to low 80's. BUT not this time as the negative SOI/El Nino
will force the heat ridge to say flat with progressive (fast moving) zonal
flow and cool and wet weather.

Eventually though the negative SOI and PNA patterns should shift back to a
positive signature again, like in December 2003. With a positive SOI, and
PNA and a negative AO and NAO, we would see a thumb high pressure ridge pop
up in the Caspian Sea region of Kazakhstan, a high pressure block in the
vicinity of Greenland and a high pressure ridge into the western U.S. and
Canada.

This all adds up to the flood gates opening up for the Arctic air express to
make it into peninsular Florida in February 2004, much like February 1996!

Remember though this concept is educated speculation, derived from an
understanding of teleconnection patterns. Stay tuned and I'll keep all
informed.

Take Care,

Thomas F. Giella

Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster

SKYWARN Observer HIL-249

SWFWMD Observer #574

Plant City, FL, USA

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Florida Daily Weather Discussion:

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive

Plus Daily MF Radio Propagation Outlook:

http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2004-004 Published Friday 01/16/2004 at 11:00 PM Valid through Monday 01/19/04

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

I continue with a disruption of my raw weather data stream which has hindered me in producing timely updates.

North and central Florida continues to see below normal temperature with 10 cold mornings in a row.

The cold spot in the state on Tuesday 01/13/04 was 24 deg. at Fort White in the non peninsula NE region. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 27 deg. at Holder and East Nobleton.

The cold spot in the state on Wednesday 01/14/04 was 28 deg. at East Nobleton.

The cold spot in the state on Thursday 01/15/04 was 32 deg. at East Nobleton.

The cold spot in the state on Friday 01/16/04 was 27 deg. at Fort White.

As follows are minimum temperatures at my private weather station here in suburban SW Plant City east of Tampa for the past 10 day cold to cool spell.

07- 40 deg

08- 38

09- 46

10- 46

11- 33

12- 39

13- 38

14- 35

15- 42

16- 44

As follows are minimum temperatures at my private weather station in East Nobleton between Brooksville and Bushnell for the past 10 day cold to cool spell.

07- 32 deg.

08- 30

09- 38

10- 37

11- 25

12- 31

13- 27

14- 28

15- 35

16- 37

Quite chilly but still no big statewide cold wave and amazing considering that we have had record breaking Arctic air on the weather map for almost two weeks due to global warming. By the way some big global warming conference in New England was cancelled this past week due to record breaking cold weather.

Eastern Canada and New England are experiencing the coldest weather in 50 years, with actual minimum temperatures of -58 deg. below zero in Quebec Canada, with -40 deg. below zero in parts of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. The subzero line extended southward into West Virginia and Maryland during the past 48 hours!

However Florida continues to be safe from any unmodified devastating Arctic air intrusions through at least the next 7 days. But renewed Arctic air will move into the northern plains and upper Midwest next week and we need to keep a close watch on the weather goings on.

We will see a welcomed significant rainfall event on Sunday 01/18/04, with cold weather continuing through much of next week.

 

Take Care,

Thomas F. Giella

Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster

SKYWARN Observer HIL-249

SWFWMD Observer #574

Plant City, FL, USA

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Florida Daily Weather Discussion:

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive

Plus Daily MF Radio Propagation Outlook:

http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion Update

#2004-003a Published Saturday 01/11/2004 at 12:00 PM Valid through Tuesday 01/13/04

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Quite chilly in the “Chamber of Commerce” tropical paradise state this morning. The state cold spot was 20 deg. at Fort White in the non peninsula north region. Crestview in the NW panhandle region was right behind at 22 deg. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 32 deg. at East Nobleton, Holder and Ocala. The cold spot on the south peninsula was 38 deg. at Immokalee, with the 30’s degree line deep into the southern Everglades.

Tonight should be another cold one with the subfreezing line down to approximately I-4 west of the Florida turnpike in rural areas, due to radiational cooling. The east side of the peninsula should be warmer due to expected onshore flow during the overnight hours.

The peninsula continues to look safe from an unmodified Arctic express invasion at least through Sunday 01/18/04.

Take Care,

Thomas F. Giella

Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster

SKYWARN Observer HIL-249

SWFWMD Observer #574

Plant City, FL, USA

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Florida Daily Weather Discussion:

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive

Plus Daily MF Radio Propagation Outlook:

http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2004-003 Published Saturday 01/10/2004 at 2:00 PM Valid through Tuesday 01/13/04

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Sorry for the three days of silence. Recently I got my winter season flu shot but then proceeded to catch the flu anyway. It was probably the only flu bug not in my vaccination! Just my luck.

First a quick weather recap of the past few days.

On Wednesday 01/07/04 the first frozen precipitation of the season in the form of ice pellets (sleet) fell across the NW panhandle region of the sunshine state. That’s right frozen precipitation, a regular winter occurrence across the northern part of the state.

On Thursday morning 01/08/04 the subfreezing line extended southward to approximately S.R. 44 on the inland rural west central peninsula. The state cold spot was 20 deg. at Fort White on the non peninsula NE. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 28 deg. at Holder and east Nobleton. The south peninsula I don’t know!

The cold shot ended a 9 day run with above normal temperature and humidity on the peninsula. Here in suburban SW Plant City east of Tampa I recorded a maximum temperature of 83 deg. on Sunday 01/04/04, 15 deg. above normal, with four consecutive days at 80 deg. or higher.

But by Wednesday 01/07/04 the maximum temperature only reached 59 deg. The cold spell lasted only briefly though as maximum temperatures rebounded to the low to mid 70’s on Thursday-Friday 01/08-09/04, ahead of the next cold front.

On Friday afternoon and evening a narrow swath of moderate rainfall between 0.25-1.00” fell along the high tech U.S. 92 corridor across the central peninsula. Here in Plant City I measured 0.65” of rainfall. The rainfall enhancement was caused by a combination of a warm and moist feed from the subtropical jet stream, strong upward vertical velocities (rising air) tied to a polar jet 500 mb vorticity maximum and divergence in the right rear quadrant of a polar jet 250 mb jet streak! The associated extra tropical low pressure system tracked ENE across the northern part of the state, forcing the next cold front to sweep across the state during the overnight hours of this morning. A classic weak El Nino disturbance with the polar and subtropical jet stream phasing with each other!

And what a cold front it is! Yesterday afternoon the maximum temperature was 75 deg. here in Plant City, falling to 64 deg. by 1:00 am this morning and then down to 45 deg. by 2:00 pm this afternoon. At mid afternoon temperatures are hovering in the 30’s and 40’s north, 40’s central, 50’s south and 60’s in the Florida Keys, pretty chilly with the 10-20 mph north wind under cloudy skies.

Under clearing skies but with a breezy north wind the subfreezing line should extend southward to approximately S.R. 50 west of U.S. 27 on the west central peninsula for early Sunday morning 01/11/04 and then down to approximately S.R. 60 on the central peninsula for early Monday morning 01/12/04. That may have to be adjusted a little further southward though.

Looking down the road we should stay in a cold to cool pattern through at least Saturday 01/17/04 but after that date things are a bit unclear as most weather forecast models do not agree with one another and one has to depend soley on teleconnection signals. As fellow retired military and private Meteorologist Ron Bujok of Holder, FL pointed out to me a few days ago, we continue in a progressive (fast moving) jet stream pattern, where the western U.S. high pressure ridge is continually undercut by the El Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream. This prevents a longer term high latitude block from holding a strong ridge in the western U.S. and Canada and a deep trough over the eastern 2/3’s of the U.S. This Pacific North America jet stream pattern (PNA) is necessary for all significant hard freeze events on the Florida peninsula.

What does all this mean? Lesser chances that we will see unmodified Arctic air screaming southward into Florida during the current colder weather cycle. Let me make it clear though that this is not written in stone. Why?

During the period the polar and subtropical jetstream's may eventually phase again over the deep south. Arctic air from the north and heat/moisture from the tropics means cyclogenesis (extratropical storm formation) across Florida, pulling any Arctic air in the lower 48 states southward into Florida. In modern times and from memory only once has a serious freeze descended upon Florida with an active El Nino, January 1977, yikes.

However the 3 month El Nino Pacific Ocean temperature anomaly only amounts to 1 deg. F so far which is very weak, so the “no big freeze” rule may not apply this winter! As I mentioned earlier, the big thing missing so far is a longer term blocking pattern with no STJ undercutting of the ridge and of course we all hope it stays that way.

By the way the Arctic air mass currently over Quebec and New England is the coldest in 7-10 years, with minimum temperatures as low as -50 deg. F below zero in eastern Canada and -30 to -40 deg. F in inland New England this morning and that’s not wind chill. The subzero line dipped southward to northern Virginia this morning. Next week an even colder Arctic air mass arrives over the North Pole region courtesy of our friends in Siberian Russia. The source region of this next air mass saw -75 deg. F a few days ago.

Anytime Arctic air is on the weather map we in Florida must take heed! So keep checking this column every day and I will keep all informed. Stay warm!

Take Care,

Thomas F. Giella

Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster

SKYWARN Observer HIL-249

SWFWMD Observer #574

Plant City, FL, USA

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Florida Daily Weather Discussion:

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive

Plus Daily MF Radio Propagation Outlook:

http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

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Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2004-002b Published 01/07/2004 at 10:00 AM Valid through 01/07/04

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Another quick update to the previously published 72 hour weather outlook.

Winter Returns to North and Central Florida!!!

Wow what a difference a day makes. Subfreezing minimum temperatures made a return to the panhandle north, NE, peninsula north and peninsula north central regions this morning. With a 10-15 mph N-NNE wind the tentative cold spot in the sunshine state was at several locations across the north with 28 deg.

The cold spot on the central peninsula was 32 deg. at East Nobleton. Mid to upper 30’s dipped southward into the west central peninsula to just east of Tampa, where it was 39 deg. at Vandenberg Airport. Dewpoints in the mid teens also reached southward into the inland areas of the Tampa Bay area, west of the central ridge area. Here in suburban SW Plant City the minimum temperature was 40 deg. with a minimum dewpoint of 17 deg. That’s a 41 deg. drop from yesterday’s maximum temperature of 81 deg.

As of this morning the cold air had not penetrated into the southern peninsula. Immokalee was the cold spot with 56 deg.

Take Care,

Thomas F. Giella

Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster

SKYWARN Observer HIL-249

SWFWMD Observer #574

Plant City, FL, USA

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Florida Daily Weather Discussion:

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive

Plus Daily MF Radio Propagation Outlook:

http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2004-002a Published 01/06/2004 at 10:00 AM Valid through 01/07/04

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Just a quick update to the previously published 72 hour weather outlook

Our 10 day warm spell is rapidly coming to an end as the first push of modified Arctic air sweeps across the state today behind a strong cold front. It appears that we will be moving into yet another major weather pattern change with a prolonged cold to cool spell.

We should see a 20-25 deg. temperature drop compared to today through Thursday 01/08/04, with a light freeze into the inland rural north central peninsula. A second cold front with some cold over running rainfall should occur on Friday 01/09/04, with a light freeze once again into the north central peninsula for Saturday morning 01/10/98.

A brief warm up to near normal should occur on Sunday 01/11/04, with yet another cold front sweeping across the sunshine state on Monday 01/12/04. This third push should send the subfreezing line into the inland rural central peninsula.

Now the bad news, I began warning of a significant freeze event possibility back on 12/30/03 and the possibility still exists between 01/13-23/04. Not only are teleconnection patterns pointing to a PNA jet stream pattern that would allow the Arctic express to sweep across the state, some longer weather forecast models are pointing to the same now. At this time though the freeze event does not appear to be of historic proportions though.

No need to panic though just start taking necessary precautions and keep an eye on my weather outlooks!

Take Care,

Thomas F. Giella

Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster

SKYWARN Observer HIL-249

SWFWMD Observer #574

Plant City, FL, USA

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Florida Daily Weather Discussion:

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive

Plus Daily MF Radio Propagation Outlook:

http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2004-002 Published 01/04/2004 at 11:00 AM Valid through 01/07/04

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Like my space weather outlooks I’ve decided to produce atmospheric weather outlooks valid for a 72 hour period.

The Florida peninsula has been experiencing a warm spell since 12/22/03, with temperatures above normal from the 12/29/03 onward. At my location in suburban SW Plant City east of Tampa the following daily maximum temperatures have been observed.

12/22- 71 deg -4 deg below normal

12/23- 76 deg +1 deg above normal

12/24- 73 deg -2 deg below normal

12/25- 65 deg -10 deg below normal

12/26- 71 deg -4 deg below normal

12/27- 72 deg -3 deg below normal

12/28- 73 deg -2 deg below normal

12/29- 77 deg +2 deg above normal

12/30- 78 deg +3 deg above normal

12/31- 81 deg +6 deg above normal

01/01- 79 deg. +8 deg above normal

01/02- 78 deg. +7 deg above normal

01/03- 81 deg. +10 deg above normal

This Sunday morning I observed a minimum temperature of 61 deg. +12 deg. above normal and at 12:00 noon the temperature is already 80 deg. Today should be the peak of the current warm spell with temperatures in the low to mid 80’s and dewpoints of 65 to deg. deg., that’s right very late spring like.

The warmest maximum temperature I could find on the peninsula on Friday 01/02/04 was 84 deg. at St. Leo and Inverness, on Saturday 01/03/04 83 deg. at Belle Glade. Today and Monday should see more 80+ deg. maximum temperatures.

In response to the heat ridge currently over the SE U.S. we are seeing a cold core long wave low pressure trough over the western U.S. This trough and associated thumb block is allowing very cold air from Siberia to cross over the North Pole and drain southward into Canada, the U.S. and even Mexico. Minimum temperatures in Siberia are running colder then -70 deg. below zero.

This Sunday morning has seen minimum temperatures of -30 to -50 deg. below zero in southern and central Canada, -26 to -30 deg. F below zero in Montana, with the sub zero line down to Flagstaff, Arizona, at -9 deg. below zero. As a matter of fact minimum temperatures in the upper teens have been occurring in northern Mexico at the same latitude as Tampa, Florida, yikes!

During the period Monday-Tuesday 01/04-05/04 the 591 dcm high pressure heat ridge block near Florida finally dissipates as a cold front sweeps across the state and temperatures finally return to normal. A second cold front will sweep across the state on Friday-Saturday 01/09-10/04 returning the state to below normal temperature.

As I first published on 01/01/04 now comes potential future problems for Florida. The cold longwave trough currently out west will slowly migrate eastward and end up back over us by approximately mid month. Between January 4^th and 10^th we will go through as transition from warm to cool and then to by the 13^th cold again.

This will coincide with the coldest part of Florida Winter climatologically speaking and we just have to hope by then that the record breaking -70 deg. F temps in Siberia now moving over the North Pole region into Canada and western U.S. is depleted before mid month.

With December a cold month citrus trees became dormant and of course more cold resistant. A prolonged warm spell is reawakening them and makes them vulnerable to even a moderate freeze.

Bottom line is this, a significant freeze is very “possible” between approximately January 13-23 on the Florida peninsula so get prepared. Fortunately though no mid and long range weather forecasting models currently indicate the necessary strong Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern necessary for a truly devastating statewide killing freeze. A PNA pattern means a strong ridge out west extending northward into western Canada and Alaska, a deep trough in the eastern U.S. and a high latitude thumb or omega block that locks in the pattern for an extended period of time. This teleconnects Siberian Arctic air directly into Florida.

By the end of January I expect another surge from El Nino and it may win out on the third try and end our freeze threat for the rest of the season but give us a cool, rainy rest of winter and spring 2004, with severe weather and extra tropical winter storm bombogenesis possible.

But heck what do I know?!

Take Care,

Thomas F. Giella

Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster

SKYWARN Observer HIL-249

SWFWMD Observer #574

Plant City, FL, USA

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Florida Daily Weather Discussion:

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive

Plus Daily MF Radio Propagation Outlook:

http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

Back To The Top

#2004-001 Published 01/01/2004 At 4:00 PM

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

I hope everyone had a great Christmas and I wish everyone a happy, safe and prosperous 2004!

After a warm October and November 2003 we saw a global pattern shift in the jet stream that gave us a colder then normal December 2003, with near normal precipitation. At my private weather station in suburban SW Plant City December 2003 averaged out at 57.5 deg., 5.1 deg., below normal, rainfall totaled 2.39”, 0.02” above normal.

The 2003 rainfall total was 70.40”, 16.39” above normal. 2003 was the third year in a row with above normal

rainfall. 

2002- 90.11”, +38.94” above normal 

2001- 62.36”, +11.19” above normal

Though December 2003 was colder then normal, the central and southern peninsula saw a warm spell after 

Christmas Day, with temperatures above normal from the 29th onward. At my location the following maximum 

temperatures were recorded.

12/26- 71 deg -4 deg below normal

12/27- 72 deg -3 deg

12/28- 73 deg -2 deg

12/29- 77 deg +2 deg

12/30- 78 deg +3 deg

12/31- 81 deg +6 deg

The period between 12/22-30/03 continued cold to cool in inland areas of the panhandle and non peninsula north regions, with continued subfreezing mornings through the 31st. Some areas of the inland rural north central peninsula also saw some subfreezing minimum temperatures through the 28th. The rest of the state saw minimum temperatures in the 40's and 50's.

Back on December 21^st I posted the following:

…..The chances of a significant freeze event between Christmas and the new year has now been eliminated, as the positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, which consists of a ridge in the west and a trough in the east will get undercut and beaten down as the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream re-exerts itself. We should see near normal temperature and precipitation for the remainder of the month and it could extend through the first 1-2 weeks of January 2004!.....

A few days ago a weather friend asked me why we were seeing our current warm spell.

The warm spell is being caused by a weak El Nino Pacific Ocean water temperature anomaly trying to assert itself again, like it did in October and November 2003. It's also a classic case of a progressive (fast moving) jetstream flow with occasional phasing of the Polar/Arctic and subtropical jet streams at our latitude. It all started with the arrival of the simple winter extra tropical low pressure system in the subtropical jetstream on Christmas Eve.

By the way the last time I saw this similar pronounced non blocking global jet stream pattern oscillation was in Winter 1992-1993, the year of the vicious “No Name Storm”. By the way I find the media coined term of “No Name Storm” very annoying because it implies that the storm was an unnamed out of season warm core hurricane that somehow snuck up on everyone. The storm was simply a winter cold core extra tropical low pressure storm system that underwent bombogenesis (rapid strengthening) in the Gulf Of Mexico. These storms are very common along the coasts of the mid Atlantic and New England areas but only occur in the Gulf Of Mexico on average once every 20 years!

Now back to the warm spell. The Kona low and pineapple connection of moisture near Hawaii, which is being stoked up by El Nino, represents large scale air and moisture lift (rising air and moisture). That teleconnects (is tied to) to the 591 dcm high pressure heat ridge near Florida and over the Bahama Islands. The moist air that rose near Hawaii is now sinking near Florida, as the air has to come down somewhere. Sinking air compresses and warms and dries, bingo warm spell. Weather that the tourists, love until they jump into the ocean water and find it in the 40’s and 50’s. They then discover that the tourist brochure advertising 80 deg. water was an accidental typographical error???!!!

In response to the heat ridge currently over the eastern U.S. we are seeing a cold core long wave low pressure trough over the western U.S. This trough and a thumb block is allowing very cold air from Siberia to cross over the North Pole and drain southward into Canada, the U.S. and even Mexico. As a matter of fact minimum temperatures in the teens have been occurring in Mexico at the same latitude as central Florida, yikes!

Now comes future problems for Florida. The trough currently out west will slowly migrate eastward and end up back over us by approximately mid month. Between January 4^th and 10^th we will go through as transition from warm to cool to cold again.

This will coincide with the coldest part of Florida Winter climatologically speaking and we just have to hope by then that the record breaking -80 deg. F temps in Siberia now moving over the North Pole into Canada and western U.S. is depleted before mid month.

With December a cold month citrus trees became dormant and of course more cold resistant. A prolonged warm spell is reawakening them and makes them vulnerable to even a moderate freeze.

Bottom line is this, a significant freeze is very possible between approximately January 10-23 on the Florida peninsula so get prepared.

By the end of January I expect another surge from El Nino and it may win out on the third try and end our freeze threat for the rest of the season but give us a cool, rainy rest of winter and spring 2004, with severe weather and extra tropical winter storm bombogenesis possible.

But heck what do I know.

Take Care,

Thomas F. Giella

Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster

SKYWARN Observer HIL-249

SWFWMD Observer #574

Plant City, FL, USA

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:

http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm

Florida Daily Weather Discussion:

http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive

Plus Daily MF Radio Propagation Outlook:

http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.