2003 Florida Daily Weather Discussion

2003 FLORIDA DAILY WEATHER DISCUSSION
"A Weather Discussion Blog"
You can contact me
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Meteorologist
Lakeland, FL at
meteorologist at tampabay dot rr dot com

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-70 Published 12/30/03 At 9:00 PM

The period between 12/22-30/03 continued cold to cool as the state experienced a very slow warm up. Inland areas of the panhandle and non peninsula north regions continued to see subfreezing mornings through today. Some areas of the inland rural north central peninsula also saw some subfreezing minimum temperatures. The rest of the state saw minimum temperatures in the 40's and 50's.

To me personally the current warm spell only really began yesterday 12/29/03 when max. temps reached 5-8 deg above normal, in the upper 70's to around 80 deg. In any event the warm spell is simply being caused by El Nino trying to assert itself again, like it did in November. It's a classic case of progressive jetstream flow with occasional phasing of the Polar/Arctic and subtropical jet streams. It all started with the arrival of the simple extra tropical cyclone in the subtropical jetstream on Christmas Eve. By the way the last time I saw this pronounced pattern was in Winter 1992-1993!!!!!

The Kona low and pineapple connection near Hawaii which is induced by El Nino represents of course large scale lift. That teleconnects to the heat ridge near us over the Bahama Islands as the sinking air has to come down somewhere. The mean trough currently out west will slowly migrate eastward and end up back over us by approximately mid month.

This will occur during the coldest part of Florida Winter climatologically and we just have to hope by then that the record breaking -80 deg. F temps in Siberia now moving over the North Pole into Canada and western U.S. is depleted before mid month. With December a cold month citrus trees became dormant and of course more cold resistant. A prolonged warm spell will wake them again.

By the end of January I expect another surge from El Nino and it may win out on the third try and end our freeze threat for the rest of the season but give us a cool, rainy rest of winter and spring 2004, with severe weather and extr atropical winter storm bombogenesis. But heck what do I know.

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-69 Published 12/21/03 At 3:00 PM

As forecast models predicted, the cold high pressure center moved ENE across the panhandle north region and then into south Georgia during the overnight hours. This kept the cold air advection machine on at the boundary level and precluded long periods of calm wind at the surface on the central and southern peninsula. A small finger of the high pressure center did nose southward across the peninsula during the latter half of the night, allowing temperatures to fall below freezing in inland rural areas of the central and south peninsula.

The cold spot in the state was 14 deg. at Fort White in the non panhandle north region. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 19 deg. at Holder and Nobleton East. The cold spot on the south peninsula was 31 deg. at Immokalee.

Some notable minimum temperatures in the inland south central citrus region of the peninsula include 24 deg. at Old Venus, 26 deg. at Archbold and 32 deg. at Palmdale. The east side of the citrus growing region stayed above freezing.

Some selected minimum temperatures for 12/21/03. You can readily see warmer urban, coastal and higher elevation locations and colder lower lying rural inland regions.

*- My Private Station Network

#- Private Stations with Accurate Instruments and Exposures

Panhandle North-
Apalachicola- 31

Bronson FAWN- MM

Carrabelle FAWN- 26
Chipley- 26
Crestview- 21
De Funiak Springs- 28
Jay FAWN- 28

Madison- 24
Marianna- 25
Marianna FAWN- 24

Monticello- mm
Monticello FAWN- 23

#New Hope- 24
Panama City- 32
Perry- 23
Quincy- mm
Quincy FAWN- 25
Steinhatchee Fire Tower- 25
Tallahassee Int AP- 21
Tallahassee Canopy Oaks Elem- mm
Tallahassee Chiles HS- mm

Non Panhandle North & North East-

#Fort White- 14
Glen St. Mary- 21
Jacksonville WSO AP- 24
Jasper- 24
Lake City- 25
Live Oak- mm
Live Oak FAWN- 22
MacClenny FAWN- 22
Middleburg- mm
Starke- 23

North Peninsula-
Alachua FAWN- 21

Bronson FAWN- 28
Chiefland- 29
Cross City- 21
Gainesville- 22
Hastings- 30

High Springs- mm
Lake Butler- mm
Mayo- mm
Putnam Hall FAWN- 27

North Central Peninsula-
Apopka FAWN- 34
Avalon FAWN- 36

#Brooksville- 29

Brooksville South AP- 21

Clermont Climate St- 36

#Holder- 19
Citra FAWN- 25
Daytona Beach Int AP- 36
Inverness Climate St- 25
The Villages- 30
#Lady Lake- 28
Leesburg AP- 34

Mount Plymouth- 24

Nobleton FAWN- 23

#Nobleton- mm

*Nobleton East- 19
Ocala AP- 25
Ocklawaha FAWN- 31
Okahumpka FAWN- 31
Orlando Int AP- 37
Orlando Ex AP- 40

Orlando East- 35
Pierson FAWN- 27
Sanford AP- 38
Tavares FAWN- 37
Umatilla FAWN- 27

Central Peninsula-
#Balm- 33

Balm FAWN- 33
Bradenton FAWN- 33

*Dade City- 29

Dade City South- 27
Dover FAWN- 31

Kenansville FAWN- 32
Kissimmee AP- 34
Lake Alfred FAWN- 34
Lakeland Linder AP- 33

*Lakeland SW- 29
Melbourne Int AP- 39

Melbourne NWS- 37
Palm Bay- 32

Plant City Climate St- 31
*Plant City North (Knights Station)- 26
*Plant City West- 28
*Plant City SW- 29
Ruskin Tampa Bay NWS- 33
*Darby- 22

#Kenneth City- 35

Scottsmoor- 31
St. Leo- 27

St. Pete./Clearwater Int AP- 43
St. Pete. Albert Whitted AP- 46
Sarasota/Bradenton AP- 37

Tampa Int AP- 36

Tampa East Vandenberg AP-28

Tampa South MacDill AFB- 39
#Zephyrhills NE- mm

South Central Peninsula-
Avon Park- 30
Archbold Bio St- 26
Brighton- 36
Fort Pierce Int AP- 39
Fort Pierce FAWN- 37
Okeechobee- 37
#Old Venus- 24

Ona FAWN- 35

Palmdale FAWN- 32

Sebring FAWN- 35

Vero Beach- 39
Vero Beach AP- 39

South Peninsula/Northern Everglades-
Belle Glade- 40

Belle Glade FAWN- 36
Clewiston- 35
Devils Garden- mm
Punta Gorda- 34
Fort Myers Page AP- 40
Fort Myers Int AP- 38
Moore Haven- 38

Immokalee- 35
Immokalee FAWN- 31
La Belle- mm

Marco Island- 40
Naples Muni AP- 41
Naples East- 39

Ortona- 33
South Bay- 35

South Peninsula/Southern Everglades-
#Boynton Beach West- mm

Everglades City- 40
Fort Lauderdale Int AP- 47
Fort Lauderdale Exec AP- 45
Fort Lauderdale FAWN- 45
Homestead Gen AP- 40
Homestead AFB- 46
Homestead FAWN- 37
Miami Int AP- 47
Miami Beach- 48

Ochopee- 40
Perrine- 39
Royal Palm Beach West- 41
West Kendall AP- 43
West Palm Beach Int AP- 44

Florida Keys-

#Key Largo- 49
Key West Int AP- 54
#Key West Inland- 52
Key West NAS-
Marathon- 52
Tavernier- 50

A warm up is already underway this afternoon with a NE wind, with today�s maximum temperatures at least 10 deg. warmer then yesterday. Sunday mornings minimum temperatures should be 10-20 deg. warmer then this morning, with some isolated pockets of near freezing minimum temperatures in normally colder inland rural areas of the north central and north peninsula regions.

We will continue with a slow warm up to near normal by Christmas Eve 12/24/03 with a small chance of rain, then colder weather again for Christmas Day 12/25/03. This next cold spell will be warmer then the last.

The chances of a significant freeze event between Christmas and the new year has now been eliminated, as the positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, which consists of a ridge in the west and a trough in the east will get undercut and beaten down as the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream re-exerts itself.

We should see near normal temperature and precipitation for the remainder of the month and it could extend through the first 1-2 weeks of January 2004!

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-68 Published 12/20/03 At 2:00 PM

The latest dry cold front is currently racing across the state bringing renewed strong cold and dry air advection. As I discussed yesterday we are seeing inland dewpoints crash into the teens north and central and 20�s south as the afternoon is progressing. During the day temperatures are still in the 40�s north, 50�s central and 50�s to around 60 south at 2:00 pm. The cold spot this morning was Fort White in the non panhandle north region with 21 deg. The contiguous subfreezing line in inland rural areas dipped down to approximately S.R. 60, further south then I expected. The cold spot on the central peninsula was at East Nobleton with 24 deg. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was at Homestead FAWN with 37 deg.

Some west central Florida minimum temperature readings were as follows:

*- My Private Station Network

#- Private Stations with Accurate Instruments and Exposures

32 *Suburban SW Plant City

29 *Rural West Plant City

27 *Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)

33 *Urban Dade City

26 *Rural Darby

33 *Rural SW Lakeland

36 #Rural Balm

-- #Rural NE Zephyrhills

34 #Urban Brooksville

24 *Rural East Nobleton

-- #Rural Nobleton

32 #Rural Holder

32 #Rural Lady Lake

40 #Suburban Kenneth City

Just a reminder. As the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, this not for profit weather discussion and forecast outlook is not for use in lieu of official sources, is not for protection of life or property, is for educational purposes only and is subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

For early Sunday morning 12/22/03 the contiguous hard freeze line will extend southward to approximately I-4, in inland rural areas of the central peninsula.

The moderate freeze line will extend southward to approximately S.R. 70, in inland rural areas of the south central peninsula. Normally colder areas such as Archbold will see hard freeze conditions.

The light freeze line will extend southward to approximately U.S. 41 west of U.S. 27, in inland rural areas of the south peninsula.

The 32 deg. line will extend southward to the latitude of Homestead in inland rural areas of the deep south peninsula.

Minimum temperatures could be a little colder or warmer depending on the exact track of the approaching Arctic cold high pressure center. Forecast model data points to a path across the panhandle north which, would be a warmer scenario but a SE�ward dip to the central peninsula is also possible and a colder scenario.

We will then see a slow warm up to near normal by Christmas Eve 12/24/03 with a chance of rain, then colder weather again for Christmas Day 12/25/03.

The chances of a significant freeze event between Christmas and the new year has been reduced now, as the positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, which consists of a ridge in the west and a trough in the east will get beaten down due to a developing and approaching strong El Ninoish (is that a word) low latitude winter storm.

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-67 Published 12/19/03 At 11:00 AM

The latest dry cold front is currently racing across the state bringing renewed cold air advection. Actual in my opinion dry air advection would be a more accurate description, as we should see dewpoints crash into the teens north and 20�s central as the afternoon progresses. During the day temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 40�s north, 50�s central and 60�s south. The tentative cold spot was Tallahassee in the panhandle north region with 34 deg. I say tentative because I didn�t look that closely.

For early Saturday morning 12/21/03 I expect the contiguous subfreezing line to extend southward to approximately S.R. 54, west of U.S.27 on the west central peninsula. The freezing temperatures should be accompanied by wind (advective freeze), negating the warming advantages of locations near trees and homes. During the day on Saturday I expect another dry cold front to sweep across the state, this time delivering even lower dewpoints to the peninsula. Dewpoints in the teens should extend deep into the central peninsula, setting the stage for a hard freeze into portions of the central peninsula for Sunday morning.

We can then expect the coldest temperatures of the season on Sunday morning 12/22/03 with a hard freeze across the north and also extending southward into the inland rural central peninsula down to approximately S.R. 50. We will see a moderate freeze into the inland rural areas of the central peninsula down to approximately S.R. 60. and a light freeze deep into the southern peninsula to approximately the Alligator Alley west of U.S. 27.

Minimum temperatures could be a little colder or warmer depending on the exact track of the approaching Arctic cold high pressure center. Forecast model data points to a path across the panhandle north but a SE�ward dip to the central peninsula is also possible and a bad scenario.

We will then see a slow warm up to near normal by Christmas Eve 12/24/03 with a chance of rain, then colder weather again for Christmas Day 12/25/03.

Back in November 2003 I forecasted a colder then normal December 2003 and it has come to pass.

Fortunately though the El Ninoish (is that a word) stoked up subtropical jet stream would eventually undercut the colder PNA pattern and should prevent a prolonged very cold weather period LIKE WE SAW IN January 2003.

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-66 Published 12/18/03 At 12:00 PM

The coldest air mass of the season settled in over the sunshine state early this morning. The state cold spot was 25 deg. at Crestview in the NW panhandle region and 25 deg. also at Nobleton FAWN on the west central peninsula region. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 36 deg. at Immokalee.

The contiguous subfreezing line extended down to approximately S.R. 60 on the central peninsula in inland rural areas. There was also a large secondary pocket of subfreezing temperature readings on the east and south central peninsula regions. The subfreezing line did extend further south then I expected, as the last data I looked at pointed to the cold high pressure ridge center passing north and east of the peninsula not across it.

Why did it get so cold in the east and south central citrus growing region? It was simply a case of trajectory, with the cold high pressure center moving SE from the Gulf Coast to the south central peninsula, as it followed mid level steering winds. As the high passed west and then south of the central and northern areas of the state, temperature falls were halted during the middle of the night as a light westerly onshore flow commenced. A similar situation occurred during the historic Christmas freeze in 1983, with the coldest temperatures on the peninsula occurring in the south central region, with readings in the low to mid teens!

Minimum temperatures for west central Florida this morning.

31 Suburban SW Plant City

31 Rural West Plant City

30 Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)

MM Urban Climate Station Plant City

35 Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport

35 Rural FAWN Station Dover

39 Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport

32 Rural SW Lakeland

38 Suburban NWS Office Ruskin

36 Rural Balm

29 Rural Darby

32 Urban Dade City

MM Rural NE Zephyrhills

36 Urban Brooksville

28 Suburban Brooksville Airport

25 Rural FAWN Nobleton

28 Rural East Nobleton

28 Rural Nobleton

28 Rural Holder

32 Rural Lady Lake

41 Urban & Coastal Tampa Intl Airport

39 Urban & Coastal Mac Dill AFB

36 Suburban Kenneth City

44 Urban & Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Intl Airport

48 Urban & Coastal St. Pete Albert Whitted Airport

40 Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport

Other notable minimum temperatures include:

East Central Peninsula-

Mount Plymouth 31

Palm Bay 31

Kenansville 32

Deland 32

The Villages 32

South Central Peninsula-

Old Venus 29

Archbold 30

Ft. Pierce ARC 30

Palmdale FAWN 33

Today should be a little on the cool side with mid 50�s north, 60 to low 60�s central and mid to upper 60�s south. We should see an onshore west wind during the overnight hours hold minimum temperatures above freezing for most of the peninsula. The onshore flow will be ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will race across the state during the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning.

We can then expect the coldest air mass of the season with a light freeze in the inland rural areas of the central peninsula and a near freeze into inland rural areas of the south central peninsula for Saturday morning 12/21/03. Then a moderate freeze in the inland rural areas of the central peninsula and a light freeze into inland rural areas of the south central peninsula for Sunday morning 12/22/03.

We will then see a slow warm up to near normal by Christmas Eve 12/24/03 with a chance of rain and then colder for Christmas Day 12/25/03

I realize that I�m repeating the following three paragraphs below everyday but it�s because the potential has not diminished.

Also Alaska and Canada has been a source region for once brutally cold Arctic air mass after another for the past three months and this will continue. Recently temperatures have dropped to -60 deg. F in Alaska and -40 deg. F as far south as Saskatchewan, Canada. It all adds up to a possibility of bitter cold Arctic air racing southward towards Florida with little modification due to snow cover. This is what happened in December 1983 and 1989.

BUT LIKE I SAID LAST WEEK AND YESTERDAY, I�M NOT PREDICTING A BIG FREEZE. I�M ONLY DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL USING CLIMATOLOGY AND TELECONNECTIONS.

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-65 Published 12/17/03 At 4:00 PM

I lost my Roadrunner ISP internet connection for the past couple of days so was not able to track the N.E. U.S. weekend storm as it unfolded.

On Saturday 12/13/03 I posted:
At this moment it's looking like 18-24" from western Maryland, to central
Pennsylvania, through upstate New York, all of Vermont, all of New Hampshire
except the SE corner and inland Maine. The same area of New Hampshire and
Maine that saw up to 40" on 12/11/03 may see 30-40" again.

On 12/14/03 posted:

I now say that some areas could see 50" snowfall totals!

Today Tuesday 12/17/03 I say:

I was finally able to check snowfall totals from the weekend storm earlier this morning. I found totals of 18-30� from central Pennsylvania, through upstate New York, north central Vermont, northern New Hampshire and into Maine. I also found some reports of 42� in portions of Vermont and Maine, so I consider that my snow forecast pretty much verified.

On Saturday 12/13/03 I also posted:
On 12/17-18/03 another heavy snow event will occur once again and this time
it could be heavy along the coast like the first storm of the season.

Today Wednesday 12/17/03 I say:

I haven�t had time to look closely at the current developing storm, so I�ll take a forecasting bye on this one this time.

Now to Florida weather.

On 12/13/03 I said:

We will see another one day period with a warm up into the 70�s on Tuesday 12/16/03, followed by yet another winter storm system sweeping across the sunshine state early on Wednesday 12/17/03, with a chance of thunderstorms, followed by much colder weather. Though we should see another widespread significant rainfall event, without a repeat of a surface low tracking along the north Florida region rainfall totals should be less this time around but should be enough to push month totals above normal.

Today Wednesday 12/17/03 I say:

Well that�s pretty much how it happened. As the subtropical and polar jet streams did not phase this time, all of the heavy rainfall totals occurred across the south central and southern peninsula regions yesterday, nearer the moisture feed and core of the subtropical jet stream, with widespread 1.00-2.00� rainfall totals and a few 3.00+� totals also.

Today�s cold front has been racing across the state with very strong cold air advection in it�s wake. For the northern and central areas of the state maximum temperatures for the day occurred during the overnight hours and also early this morning. Afternoon temperatures have fallen into the 40�s north, 50�s central and 60�s south on NW winds gusting to 35-45 mph!

This cold air mass will be the coldest of the season so far with a light freeze into inland rural areas of the north central and also portions of the west central peninsula on Thursday morning 12/18/03.

We will see a reinforcing cold front sweep across the state on Friday 12/19/03, followed by a light freeze into inland rural areas of the south central peninsula for Saturday-Sunday mornings 12/21-22/03.

Our progressive (fast moving) weather pattern should continue slowing down as ridging continues to build into the western U.S. and Canada. We should therefore see a slow warming trend into Christmas Eve day, then yet another winter storm arrives in the state. Christmas Eve/Christmas day could be windy, chilly and rainy, BAH HUMBUG!

I continue to be concerned about the �potential� for a significant freeze event for the agricultural areas of Florida between Christmas and into the new year. The series of winter storms racing across the country will help to create a positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, with is a ridge in the west and a trough in the east and also a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. (NAO) It�s possible that much of the eastern 2/3�s of the U.S. will have snow cover for an extended period of time. Also Alaska and Canada has been a source region for once brutally cold Arctic air mass after another for the past three months and this will continue. Recently temperatures have dropped to -60 deg. F in Alaska and -40 deg. F as far south as Saskatchewan, Canada. It all adds up to a possibility of bitter cold Arctic air racing southward towards Florida with little modification due to snow cover. This is what happened in December 1983 and 1989.

BUT LIKE I SAID LAST WEEK AND YESTERDAY, I�M NOT PREDICTING A BIG FREEZE. I�M ONLY DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL USING CLIMATOLOGY AND TELECONNECTIONS.

Fortunately though the El Ninoish (is that a word) stoked up subtropical jet stream would eventually undercut the colder PNA pattern and should prevent a prolonged very cold weather period.

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-64 Published 12/15/03 At 12:00 PM

It was quite chilly this morning across the north and central areas of the state after strong cold air advection during the overnight and early morning period. Tentatively the cold spot in the state this morning was 25 deg. at Crestview in the NW panhandle region. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 34 deg. at Holder and East Nobleton. The cold spot across the southern peninsula was 47 deg. Immokalee.

Here in suburban SW Plant City east of Tampa the min. temp. was 38 deg. with a 10 mph north wind. The 38 deg. reading fell from yesterday�s max. temp. of 69 deg. The barometric pressure rose from 29.80� to 30.24�.

I also received 1.65� of rainfall yesterday. Other Plant City area rainfall totals include 1.74� at the climatological station and 1.88� at the SWFWMD station. Looking at statewide rainfall reports this morning, we saw a very uniform pattern from the NW panhandle to the southern peninsula, with virtually all locations receiving at least 1.00� of rainfall and many between 1.50-2.25� of rainfall, with isolated totals of 3.00+�.

As we continue in the progressive weather pattern, we will see a fast warm up from today�s cold weather. Tonight�s low temperatures will probably occur between 12:00-2:00 am, as the prevailing wind quickly veers to a warmer and more moist NE-E flow ahead of the next winter storm center.

We will see another one day period with a warm up into the 70�s on Tuesday 12/16/03, followed by yet another winter storm system sweeping across the sunshine state early on Wednesday 12/17/03, with a chance of thunderstorms once again, followed by much colder weather. Though we should see another widespread significant rainfall event, without a repeat of a surface low tracking along the north Florida region rainfall totals should be less this time around but should be enough to push month totals above normal.

This cold air mass may be the coldest of the season so far with a light freeze into inland rural areas of the north central peninsula on Thursday morning 12/18/03 and then into the south central peninsula and near freezing in urban areas on Friday/Saturday morning 12/19-20/03.

Our progressive (fast moving) weather pattern should begin slowing down as ridging builds into the western U.S. and Canada. Therefore I don�t have the timing down yet for the next winter storm system and colder weather will arrive somewhere around the Christmas Eve/Day Period.

BUT LIKE I SAID LAST WEEK AND YESTERDAY, I�M NOT PREDICTING A BIG FREEZE. I�M ONLY DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL USING CLIMATOLOGY AND TELECONNECTIONS.

Fortunately though the El Ninoish (is that a word) stoked up subtropical jet stream would eventually undercut the colder PNA pattern and should prevent a prolonged very cold weather period.

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-63 Published 12/14/03 At 2:00 PM

First let�s mention the huge and probable record breaking snow storm for the middle Atlantic and New England regions.

On 12/11/03 I posted:

In the last 24 hours the same areas of the mid Atlantic and New England
regions that received 18-40" snow last week are now seeing a heavy rainfall
event. This storm system will dump snow on its northern fringes.

Speaking of snow, as improbable as it may seem the same areas that received
heavy snowfall last week may experience another heavy snow fall event early next
week!

On 12/13/03 I posted:

At this moment it's looking like 18-24" from western Maryland, to central
Pennsylvania, through upstate New York, all of Vermont, all of New Hampshire except the SE corner and inland Maine. The same area of New Hampshire and Maine that saw up to 40" on 12/11/03 may see 30-40" again.

On 12/17-18/03 another heavy snow event will occur once again and this time
it could be heavy along the coast like the first storm of the season.

On 12/14/03 I now say that some areas could see 50� snow fall totals!

Now to Florida weather.

On Saturday 12/13/03 ahead of the cold front we saw a mild and pleasant day with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 60�s north, low to mid 70�s central and upper 70�s south.

Most of the northern and central areas of the state received appreciable rainfall overnight and earlier this morning. Much the central peninsula received 1.00-2.00� of needed rainfall, with a smaller area in Manatee, Sarasota and Orange Counties receiving 3.00+�.

I did not hear of any severe weather across the northern and central parts of the state as the squall line swept through during the overnight hours and was missing the extra atmospheric instability due to surface heating that the Sun would have provided. Now severe weather the southern peninsula may be another story today as the squall line is seeing the added atmospheric instability from surface heating.

Cold air advection will begin later tonight and last into Monday 12/15/03 as the complex low pressure system in the Carolina�s strengthens.

We will see another one day period with a warm up into the 70�s on Tuesday 12/16/03, followed by yet another winter storm system sweeping across the sunshine state on Wednesday 12/17/03 with a chance of thunderstorms once again, followed by colder weather. This cold air mass may be the coldest of the season so far with a light freeze into inland rural areas of the south central peninsula and near freezing in urban areas on Friday/Saturday morning 12/19-20/03.

I don�t have the timing down yet but another winter storm and colder weather will arrive somewhere around the Christmas Eve/Day.

I�m increasingly concerned about the �potential� for a significant freeze event for the agricultural areas of Florida between Christmas and into the new year. The series of winter storms racing across the country will help to create a positive Pacific North America (PNA) jet stream pattern, with is a ridge in the west and a trough in the east and also a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. (NAO) It�s possible that much of the eastern 2/3�s of the U.S. will have snow cover for an extended period of time. Also Alaska and Canada has been a source region for once brutally cold Arctic air mass after another for the past three months and this will continue. Recently temperatures have dropped to -60 deg. F in Alaska and -40 deg. F as far south as Saskatchewan, Canada. It all adds up to a possibility of bitter cold Arctic air racing southward towards Florida with little modification due to snow cover. This is what happened in December 1983 and 1989. BUT LIKE I SAID LAST WEEK I�M NOT PREDICTING A BIG FREEZE. I�M ONLY DISCUSSING THE POTENTIAL USING CLIMATOLOGY AND TELECONNECTIONS.

Fortunately though the El Ninoish (is that a word) stoked up subtropical jet stream will eventually undercut the PNA pattern and should prevent a prolonged cold weather period.

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-62 Published 12/12/03 At 11:00 AM

Per yesterday�s discussion where I forecasted the subfreezing line down to I-4 in inland rural areas, it did not occur. After discussing the fast moving weather pattern we are presently in, I then failed to take into account high cloudiness upstream over Texas associated with the next incoming winter storm system and mid level clouds upstream in association with a weak 500 mb shortwave trough. In any event the mid and high level broken cloud decks brought the temperature fall to a screeching halt.

At my location in suburban SW Plant City the temperature did drop from 62 deg. to 43 deg. in three hours but then bottomed out at only 40 deg. The cold spot in the state was 32 deg. at multiple locations across the north and north central regions.

Today through Saturday morning 12/13/03 will continue chilly but we then we see a big warm up into the 60�s and 70�s during the day Saturday ahead of the next winter storm system. This next storm system arrives late Saturday into Sunday and continues to look more potent then the last system. It looks like we will see phasing of the polar and subtropical jet stream phasing along the Gulf Coast. This would place Florida in the right rear quadrant of a 150+ mph jet maximum and provide for large scale isentropic lift and a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall event. There also exists a minor to moderate potential for severe weather.

I place rain probabilities as follows:

Panhandle North- Saturday Night/Sunday Morning 90-80%.

Central Peninsula- Sunday Morning/Sunday Afternoon 80-70%.

Southern Peninsula- Sunday Afternoon/Evening 70-80%.

Colder weather rushes in again for Monday-Tuesday 12/15-16/03 followed by yet another storm system and colder weather for Wednesday-Thursday 12/17-18/03 and once again on Tuesday-Wednesday 12/23-24.

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-61 Published 12/11/03 At 11:00 AM

We continue in a progressive (fast moving west to east) weather pattern. What that translates into here in Florida is that weather systems are zipping along so quickly that we are not getting the time necessary to develop a good moisture feed ahead of each passing system for significant rainfall, nor deep penetration of really cold air after each system passes.

I continue to see teleconnection signs of a developing high latitude thumb ridge or block, a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a positive Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA). This translates into a slower moving weather system pattern with relatively warm and dry conditions in the far west, a transition in the plains states and cold and wet conditions in the eastern U.S.

In the last 24 hours the same areas of the mid Atlantic and New England regions that received 18-40� snow last week are now seeing a heavy rainfall event. This storm system will dump snow on its northern fringes. Speaking of snow, as improbable as it may seem the same areas that received heavy snowfall last week may experience another heavy snow fall event early next week!

Back in Florida It looks like I should have stayed with my original rainfall probability forecast of 50/40/30% for yesterday instead of upping it to 60/50/40% but I did see indications that a heavier rainfall event was possible. Statewide rainfall totals ranged from .01-0.75� with many locations receiving .50� or more. We did see a pretty large surface pressure drop with this system. At my location in SW Plant City the barometric pressure fell from 30.21� to 29.74� as the storm system approached.

The cold spot in the state was 33 deg. at Jay in the NW panhandle region. On the peninsula the cold spot was 35 deg. at Alachua. Today we are seeing a mostly cloudy, windy and chilly day with ongoing strong cold air advection.

This afternoon northern areas of the state will struggle out of the 40�s, 50�s central and 60�s south on a WNW-NW wind gusting to 35 mph. As the 500 and 850 mb wind flow turns north later today dry air advection will kick in cutting off the cold air stratocumulus across the state. Though this present air mass is a little warmer then the last, we should see better radiational cooling then last time around. This means a huge temperature drop after sunset with the subfreezing line extending southward to the I-4 corridor in inland rural areas.

Friday 12/05/03 through Saturday morning 12/06/03 will continue very chilly but we then we see a big warm up into the 60�s and 70�s during the day Saturday ahead of the next winter storm system. This next storm system arrives late Saturday into Sunday and looks to be more potent then the last system. Looks like we may see phasing of the polar and subtropical jet stream phasing along the Gulf Coast. This would place Florida in the right rear quadrant of a 150 mph jet max. and provide for large scale isentropic lift and a widespread heavy rainfall event. However this scenario is not written in stone though because a strengthening El Nino complicates everything.

Colder weather rushes in again for Monday-Tuesday 12/15-16/03 followed by yet another storm system for Wednesday 12/17/03.

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-60 Published 12/10/03 At 10:00 AM

During the overnight hours the associated vorticity maximum accelerated towards the ESE and brought it's rain shield over the southern peninsula instead of the central peninsula as I had thought.

PWAT's have increased to 1.30" with a helicity of near 300 but with limited instability partially due to cloud cover, continued atmospheric capping and a more unidirectional SW wind flow, it looks like the thunderstorm and rain chances for the central peninsula are now pretty low.

Over the northern peninsula nearer the energy a hefty squall line should rake the region as the day progresses.

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-59 Published 12/09/03 At 12:00 PM

Another chilly morning dawned across most of the sunshine state. The cold spot in the state was 33 deg. at New Hope in the panhandle north region.

During the past 18 hours winds have veered from NNE-SE signaling the beginning of a big warming trend and increase in moisture. Temperatures should recover to near or even a little above normal through Wednesday 12/10/03.

It now appears that rain chances will be higher tomorrow then it first appeared. We should see a spoke or finger of energy from a passing 500 mb shortwave trough cross the north and central part of the state, in conjunction with a strong 850 mb southerly wind jet and a decent moisture feed from the Pacific Ocean.

I�m raising rainfall probabilities to 70% panhandle north 60% peninsula north, 50% central and 40% south. We should look for a squall line of thunderstorms to race across the peninsula, with isolated severe thunderstorms possible. The line should weaken though as it crosses the peninsula.

The associated cold front will sweep across the whole of the state on Thursday 12/11/03, with another big cool down for the period Thursday-Saturday 12/11-13/03 but probably a little warmer then the last one.

Another big warm up will occur during the day on Sunday with temperatures once again recovering to near or above normal.

The next storm system and cold front arrives in Florida on Sunday-Monday 12/14-15/03 and this storm should tap even more Pacific Ocean region moisture via the subtropical jet stream and provide for the possibility of a wider and heavier rainfall event for the state. This next storm looks somewhat El Nino�ish.

Looking further north into the U.S. we will see severe weather and heavy rainfall across the deep south, heavy rainfall, snow melt and probable flooding in the mid Atlantic region, with more snow on the northern fringes during the next 72 hours.

The same areas should get slammed again beginning on Sunday 12/14/03 and lasting for another 72 hours.

As the (NAO) swings to negative by mid month I expect a colder and wetter period of weather for the remainder of December 2003 for the eastern 1/3 of the U.S. Actually the colder then normal period may extend into the middle of January 2004. Thereafter a stronger El Nino should bring milder and wetter weather to the deep south.

To add another specter to the weird weather goings on of late, we now have T.S. Peter in the far east Atlantic Ocean. Like T.S. Odette it may be a hybrid system instead of purely tropical. In any event it should not last long. Someone can correct me if I�m wrong but I don�t remember ever seeing a �P� named storm or a #16 storm in the Atlantic basin? Also this is the first time since 1887 that two tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic basin during December.

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-57 Published 12/07/03 At 4:00 PM

The cold spot in the state this morning was 24 deg. at East Nobleton in the west central peninsula region. The cold spot across the north was 26 deg. at Tallahassee. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was at Immokalee with 38 deg.

It was quite cold in some areas of the west central peninsula with widespread frost, due to long periods with a calm wind. The subfreezing line extended southward to S.R. 60 west of US. 27. Some colder locations on the south central peninsula region dipped below 32 deg. also, including Old Venus at 31 deg. As happens sometimes the central peninsula was colder then the non peninsula north. Sometimes the south central peninsula will be coldest.

Minimum temperatures this morning on the west central peninsula:

32 Suburban SW Plant City

29 Rural West Plant City

26 Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)

32 Urban Climate Station Plant City

33 Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport

33 Rural FAWN Station Dover

35 Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport

31 Rural SW Lakeland

36 Suburban NWS Office Ruskin

35 Rural Balm

25 Rural Darby

34 Urban Dade City

MM Rural NE Zephyrhills

34 Urban Brooksville

30 Suburban Brooksville Airport

30 Rural FAWN Nobleton

24 Rural East Nobleton

MM Rural Nobleton

33 Rural Holder

37 Urban & Coastal Tampa Intl Airport

37 Urban & Coastal Mac Dill AFB

37 Suburban Kenneth City

43 Urban & Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Intl Airport

44 Urban & Coastal St. Pete Albert Whitted Airport

40 Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport

Today was chilly but a warmer day late fall day then Saturday under weak cold air advection (CAA). Maximum temperatures were 5-10 deg. warmer and dewpoints 10-15 deg. warmer today then yesterday on light north winds. Today�s maximum temperatures ranged from the upper 40�s to mid 50�s north, upper 50�s to mid 60�s central and upper 60�s to low 70�s south.

With clear skies, a light wind and a dry air mass in place I expect the temperature to drop rapidly during the first half of the night under near perfect radiational cooling conditions. The second half of the night should see a more moist NE wind flow above the boundary layer bringing a halt to the temperature fall.

Monday morning should dawn with another round of subfreezing minimum temperatures into portions of the inland rural central peninsula north of I-4 but lowest temperatures may occur around 3:00 am.

We will see a rapid warm up Monday afternoon through Wednesday 12/10/03, with a moderate chance of rain on Wednesday, as another cold front sweeps across the state on Wednesday and into Thursday 12/11/03. At this moment the next air mass looks to be a little warmer then the present one.

The �Old South� north and northeastward through the Midwest, Mid Atlantic and southern New England regions saw an early and historic heavy snowfall event in the past few days. Next week promises and even more widespread snow event in the Eastern U.S. Why do I bring this up? Because it�s reminds me of December 1983 and 1989 when early snowfalls across the eastern U.S. set the stage for brutal cold waves into Florida around Christmas time.

Now I�m not forecasting record breaking cold waves for Florida later this month. I have to say this because I made similar comments in December 2000 and it was misconstrued. When the cold did not come I was accused of crying wolf. It takes a whole series of weather events to bring about a bitter cold repeat like Christmas 1983 and 1989. For more

Information on these historic cold waves check out my sub website at http://66.175.38.157/sub/fmci18.htm .

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" space and atmospheric weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted � 1988-2003 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-56 Published 12/06/03 At 9:00 PM

The cold spot in the state this morning was 32 deg. at Marianna in the NW panhandle region.

Today was a chilly and blustery late fall day in Florida under strong cold air advection (CAA) in the wake of yesterday�s cold front and today�s squeeze play between the strengthening east coast winter storm and the Arctic high pressure ridge in Texas. Maximum temperatures were 20-30 deg. colder today then yesterday on north winds gusting to 35 mph. Today�s maximum temperatures ranged from the 40�s north, 50�s central and 60�s south, with dewpoints in the mid 20�s to mid 30�s.

As of 9:00 pm EST some locations on the central peninsula are seeing a calm wind, allowing temperatures to plummet into the mid to upper 30�s. I expect(ed) a north wind at 5-10 mph wind overnight for the whole of the state, keeping temperatures above freezing in inland rural areas south of approximately I-4. However if the current trend continues the subfreezing line will probably reach down to near S.R. 60 in inland rural areas, with spotty 32 deg. readings in the colder areas of the south central peninsula and northern Everglades.

Sunday maximum temperatures should be 5-10 deg. warmer then today under sunny skies

And a dry north wind. Monday morning should dawn with another round of subfreezing minimum temperatures in portions of the inland rural central peninsula.

We should see a slow warming trend into the middle of next week then another cold frontal passage thereafter.

T.S. Odette continued to strengthen today with sustained winds near hurricane force. Hispaniola�s 10,000+ foot mountains should all but destroy Odette.

It�s been a seemingly strange weather year on planet Earth in 2003 with a record cold Winter in Antarctica and South America, a very early T.S. Anna, a very late T.S. Odette, record heat and drought in the western U.S., record early Arctic cold in Siberian Russia, Alaska and Canada, and an early snow storm in the mid Atlantic and New England that should not have occurred. Also we had a moderate El Nino Pacific Ocean temperature anomaly at the beginning of this year that faded into a weak La Nina by late spring, that faded into a La Nada (nothing) by mid summer and now we are seeing a weak and strengthening El Nino again! Even the Sun went nuts in the past month or so with record large sunspots, mind boggling size solar flares, extreme geomagnetic storms and visible Aurora three different times in Florida this fall.



                                                                      Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-55 Published 12/04/03 At 12:00 PM

The cold spot in the state this morning was 46 deg. at Darby, Holder and East Nobleton on the central peninsula. Here in SW Plant City I had a reading of 54 deg. Up north Marianna had 50 deg. and down south Immokalee had 52 deg.

We should see an increase in low and mid level moisture and above normal temperature on a breezy SE-SW wind ahead of the next cold front during the next 36 hour period. The cold front will sweep across the state on Friday-Saturday 12/05-06/03 ushering in another cold spell through Monday 12/08/03. I expect subfreezing temperatures to visit portions of the inland rural peninsula on Monday morning north of S.R. 50.

As I mentioned before I expect the month of December 2003 to be much colder and wetter then November. Temperature will average out a little below normal and precipitation a little above normal. Why? The North Atlantic Oscillation will swing back into a negative phase, which always produces colder then normal temperature in the Eastern U.S.

El Nino continues to slowly strengthen but will probably not impact our sensible weather in the form of a consistent cool and wet period until the latter part of January through March 2004. That leaves us vulnerable to crop damaging freezes between mid December and mid January.

As of this morning we have an out of season tropical depression #20 that has formed south of the Greater Antilles. It may become a short lived Tropical Storm Odette and track NE across the big island of Hispanola then get chewed apart by strong westerly wind shear north of the big islands. A named storm in December is unusual but not unprecedented.

West Central Florida area the minimum temperatures early this morning were:

54 Suburban SW Plant City

51 Rural West Plant City

49 Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)

54 Urban Climate Station Plant City

51 Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport

55 Rural FAWN Station Dover

49 Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport

55 Suburban NWS Office Ruskin

58 Rural Balm

46 Rural Darby

MM Rural NE Zephyrhills

57 Urban Brooksville

51 Suburban Brooksville Airport

49 Rural FAWN Nobleton

46 Rural East Nobleton

MM Rural Nobleton

46 Rural Holder

59 Urban & Coastal Tampa Intl Airport

60 Urban & Coastal Mac Dill AFB

MM Suburban Kenneth City

60 Urban & Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Intl Airport

63 Urban & Coastal St. Pete Albert Whitted Airport

56 Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport

                                                                           Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion
#2003-54 Published 12/03/03 At 11:00 AM

A breezy and mild day today with low humidity north and central regions. Perfect Florida winter weather. Another strong cold front will sweep across the state on Friday 12/5/03 ushering in a cold and windy weekend.

The cold spot in the state this morning was 32 deg. at Crestview in the NW panhandle region, the cold spot on the central peninsula was 39 deg. at east Nobleton and 44 deg. at Ortona on the south peninsula.
                                                                             Back To The Top

Florida Daily Weather Discussion

#2003-53 Published 12/02/03 At 12:00 PM

Standard Disclaimer

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted � 1988-2003 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

I�m back and so is winter my favorite time of the year! Summer in Florida can be a long row to hoe typically lasting from mid May to mid October. As we all know summer 2003 was very wet like summer 2002.

As we all know too October and November 2003 were warmer and drier then normal and in a sense prolonged our summer season of heat and humidity. Here at my personal weather station in suburban SW Plant City October 2003 averaged out at 74.8 deg. +0.4 deg. above normal, rainfall 0.75�, 2.08� below normal. November 2003 averaged out at 69.7 deg, 2.7 deg. above normal, rainfall 1.82�, 0.04� below normal. Here in Plant City I observed a maximum temperature of 90 deg. on the 5^th, a new record for the date and month. I have personal weather records going back to 1950 and have never seen a 90 deg. reading in November until now.

The reason for the warm fall weather can be tied to a weak but strengthening (ENSO) El Nino ocean water temperature anomaly, and a positive (AO) Arctic Oscillation and (NAO) North Atlantic Oscillation. What are these? Our atmosphere and oceans contain regional and hemispheric size circulations that change phase with time, creating our sensible weather. Meteorologists and Oceanographers continue to discover new circulations proving that our planet is a complicated beast that will never be tamed nor fully understood. Many of these circulations create short term and medium term weather patterns of heat and cold, flood and drought. For more information on weather oscillations check out the right side column of my website Florida Space and Atmospheric Weather Institute website at http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm .

The peninsula did not see it�s first substantial cold front until November 14^th, way behind schedule so to speak and the first real cold spell did not arrive until the 28^th. To recap the past few days of weather goings on.

The cold spot in the state on Sunday the 30^th was Crestview in the NW panhandle region with 23 deg. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 27 deg. at Holder in Citrus County and East Nobleton in Sumter County. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 44 deg. at Immokalee. The subfreezing line extended down to near I-4 in inland rural areas of the central peninsula. The coldest southward subfreezing temperature occurred in Knights Station just north of Plant City with 30 deg. Here in suburban SW Plant City I had a reading of 33 deg. Other notable southward minimum temperatures include 34 deg. at Archbold and 32 deg. in Venus in Highlands County and 32 deg.

The cold spot in the state on Monday December 1^st was 28 deg. in Jasper and Cross City in the non panhandle north region, with the 32 deg. line extending down to approximately S.R. 44 in inland rural north central peninsula. Here in SW Plant City I had a reading of 51 deg. During the day renewed (CAA) cold air advection began anew on the peninsula behind a 500 mb shortwave trough.

The cold spot in the state this morning was 34 deg. at Brooksville and East Nobleton on the central peninsula. Here in SW Plant City I had a reading of 40 deg. During the overnight hours another cold front swept across the peninsula and is responsible for our breezy conditions from the NE this morning.

We should see a breezy NE wind for the next 72 hours with near normal temperature. During the period Thursday-Friday 12/4-5/03 another strong cold front will sweep across the state ushering in another cold snap similar to last weekend, with subfreezing temperatures visiting portions of the inland rural peninsula.

I expect the month of December 2003 to be much colder and wetter then November. Temperature will average out a little below normal and precipitation a little above normal. Why? The North Atlantic Oscillation will swing back into a negative phase, which always produces colder then normal temperature in the Eastern U.S.

Back To The Top

#2003-52 Published Tuesday 04/29/03 At 5:00 PM EDT

First it was T.S. Anna, now it appears that the disturbance in the central Gulf Of Mexico may become Sub-tropical Storm or even Tropical Storm Bill within 36-48 hours! I still expect a very busy tropical cyclone season much like 1995.
Due to personal illness I'm going to terminate this daily weather discussion until probably sometime in the fall.

Back To The Top

#2003-51 Published Tuesday 04/29/03 At 11:00 AM EDT

Due to time constraints within my website design business I have decided to discontinue the Florida Daily Weather Discussion. I do expect another very wet summer season, as well as a very busy tropical cyclone season so get ready now.

Back To The Top

#2003-50 Published Saturday 04/26/03 At 8:00 AM EDT

Yesterday morning I posted, "Looking at the severe weather indices across the central and northern areas of the state this morning they do support tornado formation". That turned out to be an understatement, as the long lived Derecho/MCC of thunderstorms raked the north and central peninsula during the day yesterday, the central peninsula during the overnight hours and now the southern peninsula this early morning, with numerous instances of severe weather.

Preliminary severe weather reports that I have gathered so far this morning include-

Tornadoes- 4
Funnel Clouds- 2
Water Spouts- 1
Wind Damage- 10
Hail- 32 Including one report of 2.75" dia, one of 2.00", one of 1.75" and five of 1.00"

This storm system has also been a prolific producer of hundreds of thousands of lightning bolts, intra cloud (IC), cloud to cloud (CC) and cloud to ground (CG). I was awakened repeatedly through out the night by close cloud to ground lightning strikes. As an amateur radio operator with big outside antennas this is always an un-nerving experience. Up to two hours after the rain ended here in Plant City this morning I could still hear thunder from overhead IC and CC lightning activity.

The largest measured rainfall total I could find was 5.07" in Kenneth City in central Pinellas County. Here in suburban SW Plant City I measured 2.31", with a report from Balm of 2.28". NWS NEXRAD Radar rain estimates from Ruskin, Melbourne and Jacksonville show an east west swath of 3-5" from Citrus and Hernando Counties eastward through Sumter, Lake, Orange, Seminole and Osceola Counties, with a maximum of 7-8" in the vicinity of Lake Apopka. A second maximum of 2-4" occurred in a rectangular shaped area from Pasco County southward through Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, Sarasota and Hardee Counties, with a maximum of 6-7" in southern Pinellas County.

This severe weather event of the past 24 hours has it's origins in a classic case of strong diffluent and divergent flow aloft sandwiched between the Polar and Sub-tropical jetstreams, with several vorticity maximums. As the day wears on this pattern of diffluence and divergence will continue as it slides slowly eastward, with mid and upper level drying moving into the region. This will mean sunshine, surface heating and therefore added instability and a steepening lapse rate, that may trigger a second round of thunderstorms across the central peninsula later in the afternoon, with continued thunderstorms and severe weather possible across the southern peninsula.

Back To The Top

#2003-49 Published Friday 04/25/03 At 11:00 AM EDT

Quite a strong Derecho/Mesoscale Convective Complex of Thunderstorms across the panhandle/big bend area of the north this late morning. It's lightning signature is quite impressive. As the day progresses it should move in a general easterly direction, with some southward growth into the north central peninsula.

Looking at the severe weather indices across the central and northern areas of the state this morning they do support tornado formation. We have a strong low level jet from the south at around 40 mph between 980-880 mb, a Lifted Index (LI) of -7 to -11, Helicity values of 200-450, CAPES of 2000-4000 and 500 mb temperature of -13 to -16 deg. C.

Some inhibitors to thunderstorm development at the moment though are precipitable water (PW) amounts of only 1.25" and some subsidence (sinking air) around 850 mb, in the wake of the first vorticity maximum that crossed the northern peninsula earlier this morning. A second vorticity maximum SW of Tampa Bay will provide the necessary upward vertical velocities and lift to break the cap and allow for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and into the evening. Best thunderstorm chances though will be across the north central peninsula.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will linger for Saturday-Sunday 04/26-27/03 especially across the southern peninsula, with better thunderstorm chances once again across the central and northern peninsula for Monday-Tuesday 04/28-29/03, as another mid and upper level short wave trough embedded in the subtropical jetstream traverses the region.

Back To The Top

#2003-48 Published Thursday 04/24/03 At 11:00 AM EST

In a prelude to the approaching summer monsoon rainy season the period Wednesday-Friday 04/16-18/03 featured east coast west coast sea breeze boundary collisions and associated rain showers and thunderstorms in narrow north south bands on the peninsula. Day one and two saw the thunderstorms form along the west side of the peninsula, day three along the central spine of the peninsula, all three days the thunderstorms moved from west to east. Most rainfall amounts were small in the order of 0.05-0.20" but some areas did receive 0.75-1.80" of needed rainfall. There was some enhancement of the storms with passing mid and upper level disturbances in the sub-tropical jet stream.

Things became real interesting on Sunday 04/20/03 when the NHC/TPC issued the earliest tropical distrubance formation alert ever, as Sub-Tropical Storm Ana developed in the SW Atlantic Basin. Ana was upgraded to a tropical storm on Tuesday 04/22/03 and then became extra-tropical on Wednesday evening 04/23/03.

This is an ominous portend to what is expected to be a very active tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic Basin. However this does not mean that we will see numerous early season tropical threats in Florida. My memory may be failing me but it seems that the last time we had an abnormally early season tropical disturbance in April was in 1992, when the second disturbance of the season did not come until August, in what was an overall quiet tropical cyclone season. Unfortunately though that August tropical disturbance was category 5 Hurricane Andrew!!!

The north and central areas of the state were treated to a late season cold front beginning on Tuesday 04/22/03. Unfortunately though all the significant precipitation with the system fell across the northern part of the state. Minimum temperatures across the north and portions of the inland rural west central peninsula fell into the low to mid 40's on Wednesday-Thursday mornings 04/23-24/03, with 50's elsewhere on the central peninsula. Dew points during the day on Wednesday fell into the 30's north and 40's central, a very pleasant late spring day.

During the day today Thursday 04/24/03 we should see a rapid return of heat and moisture from south to north ahead of the next late season cold front. The 500 mb shortwave trough and it's attendant vorticity spokes will begin impacting the northern part of the state later today and then as far south as Brooksville northward early Friday morning 04/25/03, in the form of thunderstorms. During the day on Friday and continuing into Saturday 04/26/03 some significant rainfall totals may be seen in association with scattered thunderstorms, some that will be strong to severe. Rainfall chances look to be around 60-50% north, 50-40% central and 40-30% south. This storm system already has a history of severe weather from the southern Rockies and Plains eastward into the old south.

Cooler weather should return once again for the northern 2/3's of the state on Sunday 04/27/03. Looking further ahead into May 2003, we enter the traditional hot, humid and dry period, while we await the beginning of the summer monsoon rainy season, which climatological averages say begins around May 21st on the central peninsula and May 15th on the southern peninsula.

It is possible that the extreme dryness may not occur this May, as the slowly waning El Nino pattern may continue to send thunderstoms producing mid and upper level disturbances across the state, sparing us a severe fire season.

Back To The Top

#2003-47 Published Thursday 04/10/03 At 11:00 AM EST

We are in a pretty benign weather pattern at the moment so not much to talk about. We did see some pretty chilly maximum temperatures for mid April on Thursday-Friday 04/10-11/03, in the low to mid 60's with W-NW winds gusting to 35-40 mph. We also saw some chilly minimum temperatures on Saturday-Monday 04/12-14/03, in the low 40's to low 50's. Maximum temperatures have since rebounded into the mid and upper 80's with minimum temperatures in the low 50's to low 60's beginning on Sunday 04/13/03.

Warm weather should continue with a slow increase in humidity. There is a small chance of low topped rainshowers today in association with a departing upper level low and vorticity spoke, mainly inland and east coast.

The next chance of a more scattered rainfall event will occur on Monday-Tuesday 04/21-22/03 with a late season cold front.

The further into the Spring season we get the lesser chance that we will see significant rainfall, especially with El Nino continuing to fade. Most years the period between the third week in April to the third week in May is normally pretty dry but hot and humid, as the cold fronts fade and we await the beginning of the monsoon like rainy season.

We also begin to think about the impending tropical cyclone season which begins on June 1st. Dr. Gray of Colorado State University is forecasting another active season with 12 named storms, 8 hurricanes, three of which will be intense.

Back To The Top

#2003-46 Published Thursday 04/10/03 At 11:00 AM EST

It's not out of the norm to see extremes of weather in April in Florida and April 2003 is certainly just that, extreme. First we saw the record cold with the subfreezing line dipping into the inland rural north central peninsula on Tuesday-Wednesday 04/01-02/03, followed by the record heat into the low to mid 90's with scattered summer like thunderstorm activity in inland areas of the peninsula on Saturday-Tuesday 04/05-08/03 and now back to much colder weather.

An unusually strong extra-tropical cut off low is moving slowly across the deep south, with it's attendant strong surface low reflection and cold front. It's described as a cut off low as it has become cut off or detached from the main polar jet stream at mid and upper levels. The cutoff low was centered over eastern Arkansas yesterday and today the large system is now spinning over Georgia. The cold front has raced across the state in the past 24 hours with bands of rain and thunderstorms, with some isolated severe cells forming on the east side of the peninsula. Here in suburban SW Plant City I measured 0.58" of rain, with .50-1.25" totals scattered around the peninsula.

Late this Thursday morning 04/10/03 across the northern 2/3's of the state we are seeing mostly cloudy skies with strong W-NW winds gusting to 30-40 mph, with temperatures struggling to climb out of the 40's across the north, 50's central and 60's south. As the day progresses we should see scattered instability type rain showers develop across the north and central part of the state, with continued strong W-NW winds gusting as high as 50 mph in coastal areas and chilly temperatures.

Lapse rates are very steep in the cold pool of air associated with the cut off low. Looking at SKEW-T data from this mornings soundings at 8:00 am, Tampa had an 850 mb temperature of +3 deg. C, a 500 mb temperature of -15 deg. C and a wet bulb 0 at 5420 feet. At Tallahassee nearer the cut off low center it's even more extreme with an 850 mb temperature of -2 deg. C, a 500 mb temperature of -25 deg. C and a wet bulb 0 at 3333 feet, very winter like.

What does this all mean besides scattered cold rainshowers? How about some winter like precipitation with frozen graupel, ice pellets or small hail falling across the north and maybe into the north central areas of the state as the day progresses.

The next three days will continue cold to cool for mid April, with maximum temperatures in the 60's north, around 70 central and mid 70's south, with minimum temperatures in the upper 30's north, low to mid 40's central and upper 40's to mid 50's south on Friday-Sunday 04/11-13/03.

We should see a steady warm up next week with temperatures returning to normal by mid week.

Back To The Top

#2003-45 Published Monday 04/07/03 At 11:00 AM EST

Here are the new record cold minimum temperatures set on Tuesday 04/01/03 within the NWS Tampa bay forecast area of responsibility.

NEW RECORD OLD RECORD LOWS FOR LOWS FOR NORMAL RECORDS LOCATION APRIL 1 APRIL 1 LOW BEGAN
CHIEFLAND 5 SE* 32 39 IN 1964 52 1956
INVERNESS 3 SE 30 34 IN 1987 53 1948
TARPON SPRINGS 41 42 IN 1987 58 1948
PLANT CITY 37 39 IN 1987 57 1931
LAKELAND 39 42 IN 1987 58 1948
SARASOTA-BRADENTON 41 42 IN 1987 58 1948
AVON PARK 2 W 38 39 IN 1987 57 1931
ARCHBOLD BIOLOGIC STN 32 34 IN 1987 52 1969
PUNTA GORDA 4 ESE 41 44 IN 1987 59 1965
FORT MYERS 44 46 IN 1987 61 1931

Early Tuesday morning 04/02/03 also saw near record low minimum temps. in the 30's and 40's north and central, with 40's and 50's south. Here in suburban SW Plant City I recorded 46 deg., with my second weather station in rural N Plant City seeing 43 deg. On Tuesday-Wednesday 04/02-03/03 temperatures remained below normal, with maximum temperatures rebounded slowly into the mid to upper 70's, with minimum temperatures in the mid 40's to mid 50's.

During the Friday-Sunday 04/04-06/03 period the deep layer high pressure ridge SE-S of Florida strengthened again allowing temperatures to sky rocket, with maximum's on the peninsula in the mid 80's to low 90's and minimums in the upper 60's to upper 70's. Fortunately though dewpoints remained low in the 40's and 50's, so the low 90 readings were tolerable. The statewide official maximum temperature on Sunday was at La Belle east of Fort Myers with 92 deg. An unoffical reading of 93 deg. was recorded in rural Balm, approximately 25 miles SE of Tampa. I also recorded 93 deg. at my suburban location in SW Plant City but I think my maximum temperature readings are running approximately 2 degrees to warm because of the suburban heat island affect, with many nearby homes and streets. Late Sunday evening the east coast sea breeze made it to the west side of the peninsula and collided with the west coast seabreeze, spawning a broken line of showers.

For the Monday-Tuesday 04/07-08/03 period we should see an increase in late afternoon rain shower and even thunderstorm activity, as the convection inhibiting low level cap weakens, as the sea and lake boundary collisions have more moisture to work with. Due to continued mid level dryness, some thunderstorms could be strong to locally severe, especially on Tuesday evening.

For the Wednesday-Thursday 04/09-10/03 period another strong cold front will sweep across the state, with a pre-frontal squall line of strong thunderstorms and then much cooler weather will arrive for Thursday-Saturday 04/10-12/03. Temperature drops of 20-30 deg. are expected with new record minimum temperatures possible.

Last but not least, Dr. Gray of CSU predicts another busier then normal hurricane season, a trend that began in 1995 and will likely continue for the next 10-20 years. As of April 2003, for the 2003 season Dr. Gray forecasts 12 named storms and 8 hurricanes, 3 of which will be intense! The norms are 9.6, 5.9 and 2.3.

Due to the still existent but weakening El Nino ocean water temperature pattern, the hurricane season will probably start slowly and end with a bang!

Back To The Top

#2003-44 Published Tuesday 04/01/03 At 11:00 AM EST

After a very warm and wet March 2003 old man Winter reared his ugly head one last time, with the sunshine state experiencing a strong cold and dry air advection event on Monday 03/31/03. At it's peak dewpoints fell into the low to mid 20's deep into the southern peninsula, with mid teens in inland areas of the central peninsula.

Here in suburban SW Plant City at 3:00 pm yesterday I observed a dewpoint of 15 deg! By late yesterday evening barometric pressures rose past 30.40" across the entire state. Here in suburban SW Plant City I observed a barometric pressure reading of 30.47" at 10:00 AM this morning, with Cross City reporting 30.51" and Punta Gorda reporting 30.42".

Tuesday morning 04/01/03 dawned with record breaking minimum temperatures for the date across much of the state. The cold spot across the north was 32 deg. at Tallahassee and Mayo. However the cold spot in the state this morning was 26 deg. at East Nobleton, on the central peninsula, The Brooksville FAWN station was a close second with 27 deg. The cold spot across the southern peninsula was 29 deg. at Venus, with Archbold second at 32 deg. Other notable minimum temperatures on the southern peninsula include 37 deg. at Immokalee and 40 deg. at Ortona. Even with a very dry Arctic airmass in place some scattered frost was observed in many areas.

On Saturday 03/19/03 I posted, ".....For early Tuesday morning the subfreezing line should extend down to approximately S.R. 50 in inland rural areas with frost, with a pocket of near freezing temperatures in the inland rural south central peninsula.....". I actually under estimated the intensity of the cold wave as the subfreezing line dipped down to approximately I-4, with a pocket of sub freezing minimum temperatures across the southern peninsula.

In the immediate Tampa Bay area the minimum temperatures early this morning were:

35 deg. Suburban SW Plant City
31 deg. Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)
37 deg. Urban Climate Station Plant City
37 deg. Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
37 deg. Rural FAWN Station Dover
36 deg. Suburban Kenneth City
41 deg. Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
39 deg. Suburban NWS Tampa Bay Office Ruskin
37 deg. Rural Balm
43 deg. Urban/Coastal Tampa International Airport
51 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Airport
44 deg. Urban/Coastal Mac Dill AFB Tampa
41 deg. Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport
54 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete. Albert Whitted Airport

We should see one more cold night then a big warm up will begin, with maximum temperatures once again reaching the mid 80's by Thursday 04/03/03.

Between freezing minimum temperatures, record rainfall events and hordes of birds it's been a dismal strawberry season for local farmers. However I did forecast our dismal 2002-2003 winter weather back in September 22, 2002. It's been on the Internet all season at:

2002-2003 FLORIDA WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
Check it out again at the end of September 2003 and you will be better informed.

Back To The Top

#2003-43 Published Saturday 03/29/03 At 11:00 AM EST

It looks like most of the dynamics necessary for a squall line of heavy to severe thunderstorms is missing for early Sunday morning 03/30/03, so I would expect just a line of rain showers with the cold front as it crosses the west coast of the peninsula. Later in the day along the east coast and across the southern peninsula some thunder may be heard.

The big story is the probable record breaking Arctic cold wave headed for the sunshine state. For Sunday I expect maximum temperatures only in the low to mid 50's north, upper 50's to low 60's on north central peninsula, low 70's falling into the low 60's for the central peninsula and mid to upper 70's south, before the cold front arrives across the south.

The subfreezing line will dip into the inland rural north for early Monday morning 03/31/03, with 40's and 50's on the peninsula. For early Tuesday morning the subfreezing line should extend down to approximately S.R. 50 in "inland rural areas" with frost, with a pocket of near freezing temperatures in the inland rural south central peninsula.

Looking at some climatological minimum temperatures records for 04/01/03, on the central peninsula the record minimum temperature for Plant City is 39 deg., with 32 deg. the lowest on record for April, Tampa is 41 deg for the date and month.

Bushnell on the north central peninsula 35 deg. with 31 deg. the lowest on record for April.

Archbold on the south central peninsula 34 deg. with 27 deg. the lowest on record for April.

Back To The Top

#2003-42 Published Friday 03/28/03 At 10:00 AM EST

WOW!!! My Wednesday morning outlook calling for severe weather for Thursday turned out to be an understatement, as we saw a statewide severe weather outbreak, the worst of this winter season and the worst in quite a few years. Numerous funnel clouds, tornadoes, large hail, torrential rains and intense lightning was observed from the Panhandle to the Everglades. Unfortunately there was one fatality in the Miami area and four more just across the Florida border in deep South Georgia due to tornadoes.

Injuries and much property damage due to tornadoes and strong straight line winds also was observed. Hail of up to 2.00" diameter (golf ball size) as well as widespread 1.00-4.00" rainfall totals were also observed, with up to 6.00" falling in Pasco and Hernando Counties due to cell entrainment. Here in suburban SW Plant City I measured only 0.28" of rainfall, as my location was only grazed by six separate severe thunderstorms that passed just to my west. However I did observe a funnel cloud and dime size hail.

During the afternoon yesterday temperatures fell from the mid 80's into the upper 50's to low 60's in many areas, as the cold air present aloft was brought to the ground by down bursting straight line winds and hail. There was no extra-tropical surface low and attendent cold front associated with yesterdays severe weather. This was a classic case of very cold air aloft in association with a mid and upper level shortwave trough, a jet stream maximum and plenty of CAPE and Helicity. Yesterdays severe weather outbreak reminded me of the March 30th 1996 severe weather event and somewhat of the state wide severe weather outbreak of April 4th 1966.

This Friday afternoon 03/28/03 into Saturday 03/29/03 will see very warm, humid and windy weather with only very small rain chances, as we see rising heights with a short lived shortwave ridge move across the state. However by late Saturday night a new low and mid level storm system and it's associated strong cold front will race across the Gulf Coast region into Florida, with it's phased polar and sub tropical jet streams. This system will spawn a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms, that will arrive along the west side of the peninsula early Sunday morning 03/30/03 and race SE across the peninsula during the day.

In the wake of this second late winter season storm system, unusually cold late season polar air will race into the state Sunday afternoon, with only 60's deg. afternoon maximum temperatures expected. The subfreezing line will then extend into the inland rural west central peninsula for early Tuesday morning 04/01/03, winters last gasp!

The last April light freeze event that occurred on the inland rural central peninsula was in April 1989 but many April's do see 30's deg. minimum temperatures.

As an example in rural Bushnell in 1989 31 deg., 1990 35 deg., 1991 36 deg.

In rural Plant City 1997 39 deg., 2000 38 deg., 2001 38 deg.

Let me make this clear though, I'm not forecasting a damaging freeze event for our agricultural interests.

By the way on this date in 1955 one inch of snow fell in northwest Florida. This is the latest date of measurable snow on record. Also un-measurable snow has fallen in the month of April in Florida.

Back To The Top

#2003-41 Published Wednesday 03/26/03 At 10:00 AM EST

We are seeing a rapid return of heat and moisture this morning across the peninsula on a SE-S wind, ahead of the next mid and upper level disturbance currently located in the western Gulf Of Mexico. We have a significant low level cap (temperature inversion) which will limit thunderstorm activity today. Any isolated activity that does form will occur in association with lake and sea breeze boundaries. With the 500 mb temperature at -16 deg. C and a wet bulb 0 at 8785 feet, any storms that do form will contain intense lightning, damaging downburst winds and large hail.

The developing storm system over the western Gulf Of Mexico will move rapidly eastward overnight in the El Nino enhanced sub tropical jet stream. This system will spawn a large area of strong to severe thunderstorms, that will arrive along the west side of the peninsula early Thursday morning 03/27/03 and race SE across the peninsula during the day.

Friday 03/28/03 into Saturday 03/29/03 we will see warm, humid and windy weather with lesser rain chances. However by late Saturday night a second low and mid level storm system and it's associated strong cold front will develop over the western Gulf Of Mexico and move rapidly eastward in the phased polar and sub tropical jet streams. This system will spawn a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms, that will arrive along the west side of the peninsula early Sunday morning 03/30/03 and race SE across the peninsula during the day.

In the wake of the second storm system unusually cold late season polar air will race into the state Sunday afternoon, with 60 deg. afternoon maximum temperatures. The subfreezing line will extend into the inland rural north central peninsula for early Monday-Tuesday 03/31-04/01/03! Winters last gasp!

Back To The Top

#2003-40 Published Tuesday 03/25/03 At 1:00 PM EST

As I surmised in my Saturday 03/22/03 post, Sunday 03/23/03 turned out to be wet and thundery, thanks to another embedded mid level shortwave disturbance and frontal boundary. Much of the central peninsula along the I-4 corridor and points south saw 1.00-2.50" rainfall totals again. Here in suburban SW Plant City I measured 1.78" of rain, bringing my March total to 5.21".

Our quasi stationary frontal boundary ended up completely clearing the state as a cold front, heralding in much drier and cooler air for a change. Minimum temperatures early Monday morning 03/24/03 dropped into the 40's north, 50's central and 60's south. Early this Tuesday morning 03/25/03 saw minimum temperatures dip into the 40's north and central and 50's and 60's south. The cold spot this morning was 42 deg. at Crestview in the NW panhandle but I suspect it was colder at my now destroyed weather station in East Nobleton. Here in suburban SW Plant City I had 48 deg. the lowest minimum temperature this month and coldest since February 24th.

With one week left in the month the daily mean temperature has averaged 5-10 deg. above normal, with above normal precipitation, except for the southern peninsula, thanks to a persistent split jet stream flow and deep layer high pressure block SE of the state. This pattern is now finally undergoing a major change though.

We should see one more pleasant day today but then heat and moisture starts returning for Wednesday 03/26/03 on an E-SE wind. Thunderstorms should be around for the Thursday-Saturday 03/27-29/03 period, with MUCH colder weather arriving for the Sunday-Monday 03/30-31/03 period. We could see some 30 deg. minimum temperature readings into the inland rural central peninsula on Monday morning!

It looks as though the next 10-15 day period into April could be cooler then normal, stay tuned!

For thoughs of you following the war in Iraq, our troops are suffering day two of a sand storm on a 50 mph SW wind, soon to be a 40 mph NW wind and much colder weather. It's still winter time in the deserts of the middle east.

Speaking of the war, I voted for President George W. Bush in 2000, as a life long Conservative Republican BUT he has proved to be to liberal for me, the "new" Republican Party too. I supported the war in Afghanistan because it was where the 9/11 terrorists hailed from. However The president failed to convince me that Iraq should be #2 on the pre-emptive list but as a disabled veteran I fully support our troops. Countries like Iran, Syria, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia should be higher the list then Iraq.

I have followed the war closely via the Internet and the BBC on shortwave radio and I'm very pained and dismayed so far to see our troops getting killed and captured because of touchy feely politically correct rules of battle engagement, that our civilian politicians are forcing upon our men. It reminds me to much of Korea and Vietnam where the politicians did not allow the generals to prosecute the war to win.

If you are forced into war you then kill people and break things, it's not a liberating police like action like we are calling it. Iraq is playing dirty and commiting war crimes against us but we are to worried about global public opinion, to open a can of whup ass like we did in 1990-91! The only thing that the Iraqi citizens hate more then Saddam Hussein is us. If our politicians don't stop this touchy feely strategy soon we will lose this war like in Vietnam, because we did not have the will to win.

Back To The Top

#2003-39 Published Saturday 03/22/03 At 11:00 AM EST

The five week trend of above normal temperature and rainfall continues in the sunshine state, thanks to a persistant deep layer high pressure heat ridge SE of the state. Maximum temperatures reached the low 90's in inland areas of the central and southern peninsula on Wednesday-Thursday 03/19-20/03, with minimum temperatures ranging from the upper 60's to mid 70's. The toasty readings have also been accompanied by high humidity levels, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70's, very much like a day in July.

Much like the stormy period of Sunday-Wednesday 03/16-19/03, Friday 03/21/03 saw widespread strong thunderstorm activity across the central peninsula, in association with a weak cold front and a mid and upper level disturbance embedded in the El Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream. Rainfall was focused along the I-4 corridor, with 1.00-2.50" falling. Due to entrainment localized rainfall totals of 3.50-5.00" fell in central and southern Pinellas County. A weather friend of mine measured an even 4.00" in Kenneth City. Here in suburban SW Plant City I measured 2.30".

Today we are seeing quite a moisture contrast across the peninsula, in association with a weak stationary front lying across the central peninsula from near Sarasota to Melbourne. North of this line dewpoints are in the 50's and 60's, with 70's to the south. The south central peninsula is currently seeing widespread heavy thunderstom activity.

Sunday-Monday 03/23-24/03 promises to be wet and thundery again across the central and southern peninsula. The western end of the stationary front will move back north as a warm front, as a surface extra-tropical low forms on it, in association with yet another disturbance embedded in the El Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream, that will swing across the state. With dry air aloft and a low wet bulb zero level, downburst straight line winds and hail are probable. Virtually every storm system to swing across the state this month has been accompanied by large hail falls.

Last Monday 03/17/03 I had another personal run in with lightning. Below is an excerpt on it from my sub web page located at: http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci3.htm .

Lightning incident #8 March 17, 2003:

I was feeling somewhat better with my second flu bug of the season so went outside at about 3:40 pm to make my 160-10 meter antenna lightning grounding system more permanent, due to all the recent lightning storms. At 3:55 pm I was squatting at one of my 10 foot "in the ground" ground rods, attempting to clamp the #6 ground wire to it from the antenna. Suddenly I felt a static electricity charge and before I could let go of the wire and rod I got jolted pretty good, as an upward moving stepped lightning leader from my 160-10 meter "L" antenna went looking for the downward moving lightning leader, from a developing thunderstorm approximately four miles to my SE. Fortunately an upward moving lightning leader from another object nearby, a concrete and rebar reinforced 35 foot street light approximately 200 yards to my SW, took the strike!!! As I write this email my hands are still tingling. I knew there was danger, as the 500 mb temperature was -12 deg. C and this assists in excessive lightning development but there was nothing in the area when I started. This lightning bolt was the first one of the day in my area.

Back To The Top

#2003-38 Published Monday 03/17/03 At 11:00 AM EST

Thanks to the El Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream and vorticity spokes rotating across the state from a deep layer cutoff low meandering across the deep south, we saw quite an active three day period Friday-Sunday 03/14-17/03 severe weather wise for the central and southern peninsula.

Friday afternoon and evening saw heavy rainfall amounts of 1.00-2.50", straight line wind damage and at least eight reports of 0.75-1.00" diameter hail across the south central and east central peninsula. Saturday 03/15/03 was relatively quiet but the severe weather came back strong on Sunday 03/16/03.

During the early afternoon Sunday severe thunderstorms erupted along the west coast seabreeze boundary from near Fort Myers to Bayport, much like a summer day. With 500 mb temperatures at approximately -13 deg. C and the wet bulb zero at approximately 9500 feet, the storms produced excessive lightning, 0.75-1.25" of rainfall totals, 0.75-1.00" hail and straight line wind damage across the central and southern peninsula. Here in suburban SW Plant City I measured 1.02" of rainfall.

Late Sunday evening into early this Monday morning 03/17/03 saw another heavy line of heavy thunderstorms race across the peninsula from SW-NE, in association with another vorticity spoke rotating across the state from the deep layer cutoff low. Straight line wind damage occurred in the Riverview and Balm areas. 24 hour rainfall totals surpassed 3.00" at some locations on the central peninsula, with up to 5.00" across the southern peninsula.

For today we should see some rough weather once again, as yet another vorticity spoke rotates across the state from the deep layer cutoff low. The (LI) lifted index is -4, The 500 mb temperature is approximately -12 deg. C and the wet bulb 0 is at approximately 10,000 feet. However (PW) precipitable water is down to 1.18", and there is a cap between 900-800 mb, so any activity that develops across the peninsula ahead of the squall line in the eastern Gulf Of Mexico, will need lake and ocean seabreeze boundary collision assistance.

Most of the state should see a drying trend on Tuesday-Wednesday 03/18-19/03 but it will stay very warm and humid. The period Thursday-Sunday 03/20-23/03 will see rain chances increase once again.

Back To The Top

#2003-37 Published Friday 03/14/03 At 9:00 AM EST

With my website design business suddenly picking up this month in this otherwise miserable double dip recession, I've been hard pressed for extra time to publish my daily weather discussion in a timely manner. I find myself providing weekly recaps of past weather events instead of providing outlooks.

The past seven day period has continued very warm and humid with maximum temperatures near 90 deg. on the central peninsula and exceeding 90 deg. on the southern peninsula daily. The northern part of the state has continued very changeable, as cold fronts have been able to clear that region.

Much of the north and north central peninsula has seen lot's of severe weather during the period. Last Sunday 03/09/03 saw severe weather on the central peninsula near the Brooksville and Sarasota areas. A confirmed F0 tornado did damage in the Sarasota area. My remote weather station located in East Nobleton sustained damage on Sunday at approximately 4:00 pm due to straight line wind gusts of 100 mph!!!

Today-Monday 03/14-17/03 will also be a very stormy and wet period, so hang onto your hats!!!

Back To The Top

#2003-36 Published Saturday 03/08/03 At 4:00 PM EST

While most of the country east of the Rocky Mountains has seen cold to incredibly cold weather during the first week of March, most of the Florida has been basking in very warm but humid weather, thanks to an unusually strong high pressure heat ridge block SE of the state. Many areas have seen daily maximum temperatures in the mid to upper 80's, with low 90's on the southern peninsula and mid 60's to mid 70's for minimum temperatures

The exception has been across the north and at times the north central peninsula, where a couple of cold fronts cleared those regions on Sunday 03/02/03 and again Friday 03/07/03, producing low to mid 60's for maximum temperatures and scattered rainfall. A shortwave trough passed across the central peninsula yesterday, producing significant rainfall totals of 0.50-1.50", mainly north of I-4.

Looking down the road, the peninsula should see a continued warmer and wetter then normal pattern for the next seven days BUT during this period BIG changes will begin taking place in the global weather pattern. These changes will eventually lead to a return of much colder, no shockingly colder weather by approximately Saturday 03/15/03 and should last for approximately one week. Stay tuned!

Back To The Top

#2003-35 Published Saturday 03/01/03 at 7:00 PM EST

Once again we saw a significant rainfall event across the state on Friday 02/28/03, especially in west central Florida where rainfall totals ranged between 1.00-2.25". The rainfall event was in association with a weak cold front that moved down the state to an approximate Sarasota to Melbourne line. Quite a range in temperature occurred with mid 50's to mid 60's north, upper 60's to upper 70's central and low 80's to low 90's south.

By early this morning 03/01/03 the front moved back north as a warm front, with quite a severe weather outbreak across the northern peninsula and NE part of the state. Many occurrences of large hail were reported, with golf ball size hail (4.5"+) observed SW of Jacksonville.

Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected again on Sunday 03/02/03, especially across the north and north central peninsula and then again on Monday 03/03/03, with significant rainfall expected across the central and south central peninsula.

Much cooler weather once again arrives by Tuesday 03/04/03.

Looking back at February 2003 it was a Jekyll and Hyde month weather wise. The first half of the month averaged out at approximately 7 deg. below normal, continuing the much below normal temperature pattern that we saw In November, December and January. With a resurgence in the El Nino Pacific Ocean temperature anomaly and it's associated stoked up subtropical jet stream, the second half of February surged to approximately 7 deg. above normal, making for a near normal month temperature wise overall. Monthly rainfall ranged from normal to much above with 3.00-10.00" observed across the state.

We should continue to see very changeable weather during the first ten days of March 2003, with stormy, warm and cold periods but the chance of a crop threatening freeze is slim, as the El Nino enhanced sub tropical jet stream should shield the peninsula from the repeated Arctic air intrusions that plagued Florida in January and much of the eastern 2/3's nation in February.

Back To The Top

#2003-34 Published Tuesday 02/25/03 At 4:00 PM EST

Once again we saw a significant rainfall event across the state on Saturday 02/22/03, especially in west central Florida where rainfall totals ranged between 0.75-2.50". Fortunately no severe weather of any significance occurred as the heavy squall line of thunderstorms weakened while crossing the shallow cold shelf waters along the west coast of the peninsula.

Early Monday morning 02/24/03 dawned cold across much of the state behind the latest cold front, with 30 deg. temperatures penetrating into inland rural west central Florida. The cold spot in the state was 31 deg. at East Nobleton on the west central peninsula, subfreezing morning number 44 for this inland rural location.

Here is a statistical tid bit that you don't here very often. Since October 01, 2002 30 cold frontal passages have occurred across the north and central areas of the state!

A quick temperature warm up began on Monday afternoon and should continue through the rest of the week with maximum temperatures ranging from the mid 70's to mid 80's. Wet weather begins a return for Wednesday evening 02/26/03 and will last through Friday 02/28/03, thanks to the El Nino enhanced active southern jet stream. Cooler and drier weather should return for Saturday 03/01/03, with wet weather to returning once again for the Sunday-Tuesday period 03/02-04/03.

We should continue to see very changeable weather during the first ten days of March 2003, with stormy, warm and cold periods but the chance of a crop threatening freeze is slim, as the El Nino enhanced sub tropical jet stream should shield the peninsula from the repeated Arctic air intrusions that plagued Florida in January and much of the eastern 2/3's nation in February.

Back To The Top

#2003-33 Published Saturday 02/21/03 At 7:00 AM EST

The squall line is moving ESE at approximately 40 mph and this means an earlier arrival of the thunderstorms across the central peninsula and therefore an increased chance of severe weather. Latest atmospheric dynamics look very ominous for severe weather.

I would expect the strong storms to make landfall between 12:00 and 2:00 PM for the Nature Coast and 2:00 and 4:00 pm for the Tampa Bay area. Best chances for tornadoes is across the non peninsula north and with chances north of S.R./C.R. 54 on the central peninsula. The southern end of the line is pulsating as it's further removed from the dynamics and could weaken some as it crosses cold continental shelf waters.

Actually the best chance of severe weather for the peninsula could be ahead of the main squall line, across east central Florida late in the afternoon, as best heating and destabilization of the atmosphere will occur.

Back To The Top

#2003-32 Published Friday 02/21/03 At 11:00 AM EST

We saw another very warm day on Thursday 02/20/03 with maximum temperatures reaching the low to mid 80's across the peninsula. The warmest reading was 89 deg. in Kenneth City, with 85 deg. here in SW Plant City and also Avon Park and St. Leo.

With the warm front across the northern peninsula and a strong S-SW wind today temperatures should surge into the 80's again, with a 30-40% chance of thunderstorms. NWS Tampa Bay said it best for thunderstorm probabilities today.

.....KTBW SOUNDING RATHER UNSTABLE THIS MORNING...WITH CAPE VALUE NEAR 1500 AND LI AT -4.3. MODIFIED SOUNDING FOR MAX TEMPS AROUND 80 AND DWPTS IN THE U60S LEAVES LI'S AT -6 AND HEALTHY CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2K. THAT SAID...DEEP MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON CONVERGENCE AS A TRIGGER.....

Looking at the next three day period of Friday-Sunday 02/21-23/03, we are looking at another intense El Nino enhanced winter storm system tracking across the deep south and then up the U.S. East Coast. Unfortunately all dynamics are in place for the largest severe weather outbreak across the deep south since November 2002. F5 finger of God tornado potential! Much of the same region that saw 20-50" of snowfall last weekend will see snowfall melting heavy rainfall and big time flood potential. With another round of bitterly cold Arctic air getting involved, some areas will see an ice storm and even more snow.

Here in Florida the best chance of severe weather be across the north during the day Saturday, as best dynamics will coincide with the added instability from the Sun. The bulk of the heavy weather will be across the central and southern peninsula late Saturday into early Sunday, reducing severe weather chances. However severe weather is still a distinct possibility for the peninsula.

Much cooler weather returns for much of the state on Monday 02/24/03.

Looking down the road during the next 10 days we should see a very changeable period of weather with both warm and cold spells and bouts of heavy precipitation and severe weather, as the teleconnection pattern signals of El Nino and it's enhanced subtropical jet stream (-SOI) tanks at it's lowest value of the current event, in conjunction with a return to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO), which promotes colder low pressure troughing in the eastern U.S.

Best rain chances for Florida during the period will be on or around Friday 02/28/03, Sunday 03/02/03 and Tuesday 03/04/03.

Back To The Top

#2003-31 Published Thursday 02/20/03 At 11:00 AM EST

Time is still at a premium for me this week so no time for daily posts. We saw a significant rainfall event across the state on Sunday 02/16/03, especially in west central Florida where rainfall totals ranged as high as 1.00-1.60".

Colder air once again invaded the state after the rain event behind the latest cold front. The cold spot in the state this week was 32 deg. at Crestview in the NW panhandle and also at East Nobleton on the west central peninsula on Tuesday morning 02/18/03. The cold spell was short lived though as maximum temperatures climbed to the mid 70's to low 80's across much of the peninsula on Wednesday 02/19/03 and should remain there through Saturday 02/22/03.

Looks like yet another El Nino enhanced widespread heavy rainfall and severe weather threat for the state during the Friday-Sunday 02/21-23/03 period, with much colder weather returning by Tuesday 02/26/03. Minimum temperatures could dip into the 30's once again across portions of the inland rural central peninsula by Wednesday morning 02/26/03.

Looking down the road during the next 10 days we should see a very changeable period of weather with both warm and cold spells and bouts of heavy precipitation and severe weather, as the teleconnection pattern signals El Nino and it's enhanced subtropical jet stream (-SOI) tanks at it's lowest value of the current event, in conjunction with a return to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO), which promotes colder low pressure troughing in the eastern U.S.

Early in the 10 day period bitter Arctic air will once again invade the eastern 2/3's of the U.S. but this time via the Western High Plains instead of the Great Lakes region but the weakening El Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream should still shield Florida from the coldest values.

Back To The Top

#2003-30 Published Sunday 02/16/03 At 11:00 AM EST

Well I'm back. The complete process of packing, moving and then unpacking at our new house in the suburban SW neighborhood of Walden Lake in Plant City is complete. It was conducted while suffering from the flu and was definately no fun. By the way my new location is 3.8 miles SW of Downtown Plant City, versus 4.2 miles west at the last location.

First a quick review of the past 15 days is in order. Per our outlook the seemingly endless approximate 45 day period of cold weather finally broke on the peninsula on Monday afternoon 02/03/03, as El Nino began staging it's comeback, albeit much weaker then it was in December 2002. Between Monday-Friday 02/03-07/03 maximum temperatures ranged between 69 and 77 deg. and minimum temperatures between 40 and 50 deg.

Shockingly colder weather returned during Saturday-Sunday 02/08-09/03 with significant rainfall across the north central and parts of the central peninsula. Maximum temperatures in the low 40's to low 50's were observed with up to 3.00" of rainfall falling in some areas.

Much warmer daytime temperatures returned on Monday 02/10/03 with maximum temperatures ranging from the upper 60's to low 70's through Friday 02/14/03 but mornings were cold with upper 20's to upper 30's in inland rural areas of the central peninsula. The subfreezing line dipped as far south as S.R. 50 west of the Ronald Reagan Turnpike on the mornings of 02/12-14/03. The cold spot each morning on the peninsula was at East Nobleton with 29 deg. on the 12th, 28 deg. on the 13th and 31 deg. on the 14th. East Nobleton has now seen 42 days this winter with subfreezing temperatures!

Ahead of the next El Nino enhanced winter storm maximum temperatures skyrocketed on the peninsula on Saturday 02/15/03, hitting the low to mid 80's on a stromg south wind. The statewide maximum temperature was 85 deg. at Fort Myers, Balm and here in SW Plant City.

That leads us to Sunday 02/16/03 where we are staring down a large area of rain with a hefty line of embedded thunderstorms late this morning. Looking at some of the dynamics with this latest El Nino enhanced system, we have a decent moisture plume feeding into Florida from the SW via the tropical Pacific Ocean, courtesy of the subtropical jetstream. Precipitable water is high at 1.61", helicity 256, CAPE 721 and a lifting index of -3. I expect to see widespread rainfall across the peninsula today and tonight with rainfall totals of 2.00"+ possible and isolated severe weather possible.

Looking down the road in the nearer term of one week we can expect much cooler weather to return between Monday-Wednesday 02/17-19/03, with the next chance of rain and a return to warmer weather between Thursday-Saturday 02/20-22/03.

In the mid term El Nino is already in a weakening phase. This means a return to colder weather during the last week of February and into the first week of March. Though a crop threatening freeze is possible again during the period and certainly has occurred in previous years, the most recent one in February 1989, climatologically speaking it's unlikely that we will have to deal with any crop threatening freezes for the remainder of this winter season.

Back To The Top

#2003-29 Published Monday 02/03/03 At 8:00 AM EST

I am moving to a new location in the Plant City area and my postings will be irregular during the next week to ten days.

As a Meteorologist and Space Weather Forecaster I've always followed our space program closely. I lived amongst the astronauts in Clear Lake City, TX, when the Challenger disaster occurred 17 years ago and it was a horrible time. I am deeply saddened to once again see the unthinkable repeated, with the loss of Columbia and it's crew of seven. I was outside early Saturday morning 02/01/03 awaiting the signature twin sonic booms as Columbia was to pass overhead. When they did not occur I knew something had gone very wrong.

These people are the true heroes and role models for our youth, not rap musicians and athletes.

Well we have finally seen some warmer weather here in the sunshine state, with maximum temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 60's north, upper 60's to mid 70's central and mid 70's to around 80 south during the past 5 days. Unfortunately minimum temperatures have still been to cold with low to mid 30's still dipping southward into inland rural areas of the central peninsula.

January 2003 definately will be in the top 5 coldest on record here in Florida. Here in rural west Plant City the month mean temperature was 51.2 deg., 9.5 deg. below normal. The daily mean minimum temperature was 37.6 deg., 10.7 deg. below normal, with 8 days below freezing. My second station in rural north Plant City saw a daily mean minimum temperature of 35.6 deg., with 10 days below freezing. My third station in East Nobleton ENE of Brooksville saw a daily mean minimum temperature of 30.8 deg., with 18 days below freezing!!!

I've been so busy with packing and moving while fighting the flu bug for the first time in several years that I have had no time to look closely at the unfolding teleconnection weather pattern. However I'm still confident that my outlook made on 01/29/03 of cold weather returning between 02/10-15/03, with crop threatening freezes possible again.

Back To The Top

#2003-28 Published Wednesday 01/29/03 At 11:00 AM EST

Wow I could not find any subfreezing minimum temperatures anywhere in the state this morning, a rare occurence this winter. As mentioned yesterday, for at least the next 8 days we should see near normal temperature, with highs in the upper 60's to mid 70's and lows in the low 40's to mid 50's. There is a moderate chance of of rain on 02/03-05/03. Ironically January 2003 will go into the history books as one of the driest and coldest ever, after the wettest December on record in 2002. Fortunately though surface moisture is still adequate to excessive across most of the state.

Unfortunately the cold weather begins returning between 02/10-15/03, with crop threatening freezes possible again.

Back To The Top

#2003-27 Published Tuesday 01/28/03 At 11:00 AM EST

How about those Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl 37 Champs after 27 years of fan suffereing.

Cold cold cold will it ever end? Yes for at least a week. The cold spot in the state early Monday morning 01/27/03 after the latest cold front was 27 deg. at Crestview on the panhandle north.

Early this Tuesday morning 01/28/03 was even colder with Crestview once again taking top honors at 22 deg. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 24 deg. at East Nobleton. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 41 deg. at Immokalee and Ortona.

The subfreezing line extended down to approximately I-4 west of the Ronald Reagan Turnpike. The 24 deg. reading at East Nobleton was subfreezing minimum number 39 this winter season.

In the immediate Tampa Bay area the minimum temperatures early this morning were:

32 deg. Rural West Plant City
29 deg. Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)
34 deg. Urban Climate Station Plant City
35 deg. Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
35 deg. Rural FAWN Station Dover
41 deg. Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
34 deg. Suburban NWS Tampa Bay Office Ruskin
37 deg. Rural Balm
39 deg. Urban/Coastal Tampa International Airport
44 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Airport
35 deg. Urban/Coastal Mac Dill AFB Tampa
40 deg. Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport
45 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete. Albert Whitted Airport

As the weakening El Nino enhanced sub tropical jet stream continues to resurge we should see temperatures at or above 70 degrees for the next seven days, WOW!!! That has not happened since the first week of November 2002. Enjoy it while it lasts because Old Man Winter will rear his frost head again in approximately 10 days.(

Back To The Top

#2003-26 Published Sunday 01/26/03 At 11:00 AM EST

GO TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS!!!

The cold spot in the state early this morning was 24 deg.in Tallahassee in the panhandle north region. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 29 deg. at East Nobleton. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 39 deg. at Ortona. The 29 deg. reading at East Nobleton was subfreezing minimum number 37 this winter season. At that station the daily mean minimum temperature in January 2003 is running in the mid 20's!!!!!

In the immediate Tampa Bay area the minimum temperatures early this morning were:

36 deg. Rural West Plant City
34 deg. Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)
38 deg. Urban Climate Station Plant City
37 deg. Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
39 deg. Rural FAWN Station Dover
29 deg. Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
40 deg. Suburban NWS Tampa Bay Office Ruskin
41 deg. Rural Balm
43 deg. Urban/Coastal Tampa International Airport
46 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Airport
41 deg. Urban/Coastal Mac Dill AFB Tampa
45 deg. Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport
48 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete. Albert Whitted Airport

We have yet another Arctic cold front headed for Florida. It should sweep across the state early Monday morning 01/27/03, with dropping temperatures during the day. The latitudanal depth of the 500 mb longwave trough should be similar to the last, with this airmass approximately 5-7 degrees warmer then the last one, as it's Arctic origin is the Yukon of Canada not Siberian Russia. Ultimately though this latest freeze could be colder for early Wednesday morning 01/29/03 versus early this Saturday morning 01/25/03, as the cold dry Arctic high pressure ridge may place a center across north Florida this time, allowing for better radiational cooling. To clarify though this last in a recent series of four Arctic airmasses, will not be a big threat to the citrus industry.

Looks like January 2003 will close out on a cold note and probably will rank within the top five coldest January's ever! A note, the freeze event on Friday-Saturday 01/24-25/03 will not go into the history books as a "big one", as the now more southerly latitude of the citrus belt, came out without significant freeze damage. However the strawberry growers and tropical fish hatcheries of the west central peninsula may beg to differ.

Looking further down the road in the near and medium term, we should continue colder and drier then normal weather through Thursday 01/30/03 but with a slow warming trend, as our old friend El Nino tries to make a comeback during the first ten days of February. This will not be the same El Nino that brought record rainfall in December 2002, as it has now peaked and beginning to weaken.

The El Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream (-SOI) will continue to strengthen though, contributing to the blocking of intrusions of Arctic air, as the Pacific-North American jet stream pattern (-PNA) continues to deaamplify, with the big ridge in the western U.S flattening and deep trough in the eastern U.S. filling, in conjunction with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (+NAO), which promotes warmer high pressure ridging along the east and SE coast of the U.S. Also we can't forget the high pressure ridge thumb in the Caspian Sea region of Asia which will also collapse. All of these teleconnections pattern indicators say no cross polar flow transfer of bitter Arctic air from Siberian Russia into the eastern 2/3's of Canada and the U.S. for approximately 10 days.

SO FINALLY WE WILL SEE LOT'S OF 70'S IN FLORIDA AND CAN HEAD TO THE BEACH? :<) WRONG. it means colder and wetter then normal but no hard freeze threat. :<( Then guess what? The cycle of Arctic air reloading begins once again.

The El Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream (+SOI) will weaken again, removing the block to intrusions of Arctic air, as the Pacific-North American jet stream pattern (+PNA) reamplifies, with a big ridge returning in the western U.S. and a deep trough in the eastern U.S., in conjunction with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO), which promotes cold longwave troughing along the east coast of the U.S. Also we can't ignore the high pressure ridge thumb popping up again in the Caspian Sea region of Asia. All of these teleconnections patterns mean cross polar flow transfer of bitter Arctic air from Siberian Russia into the eastern 2/3's of Canada and the U.S.

This means a 10-15 day period once again in Florida beginning between 02/10-15/03 when the hard freeze threat increases once again. It looks like deja vu, with the same thing happening in 2002-2003 as in the winter of 1995-96. We have one thing on our side though in February. The Sun's angle is higher in the sky, which helps to moderate the Arctic air masses. So climatologically speaking, the chance of a hard freeze lessens by mid February. Of course higher Sun angle didn't help much in February 1835, 1895, 1899, 1917, 1955, 1958, 1968, 1970, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1984, 1985, 1989 and 1996.

Back To The Top

#2003-25 Published Saturday 01/25/03 At 11:00 AM EST

Another very cold morning across the cold barren tundra of Florida with the sub freezing line deep into the inland rural southern peninsula and the hard freeze line down to approximately S.R. 54 west of the Ronald Reagan Turnpike.

The cold spot in the state early this morning was 16 deg. at DeFuniak Springs and Jasper, across the north. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 20 deg. at East Nobleton. The cold spot across the southern peninsula was 29 deg. at Ortona.

Today's maximum temperatures should be 15-20 deg. warmer then yesterday, with mid 50's to mid 60's expected, as a brief warming trend occurs. Early Sunday morning 01/26/03 will be cold once again but warmer then recent mornings, with the sub freezing line down into inland rural areas of the north central peninsula only, near S.R. 50 west of the Ronald Reagan Turnpike.

In the immediate Tampa Bay area the minimum temperatures early this morning were:

29 deg. Rural West Plant City Below 32 deg. 13 hours
27 deg. Rural North Plant City (Knights Station) Below 32 deg. 14 hours
30 deg. Urban Climate Station Plant City
30 deg. Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
32 deg. Rural FAWN Station Dover
27 deg. Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
33 deg. Suburban NWS Tampa Bay Office Ruskin
32 deg. Rural Balm
34 deg. Urban/Coastal Tampa International Airport
37 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Airport
35 deg. Urban/Coastal Mac Dill AFB Tampa
35 deg. Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport
39 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete. Albert Whitted Airport

Unfortunately we have yet another Arctic cold front headed for Florida. It should sweep across the state early Monday morning 01/27/03, with dropping temperatures during the day. The latitudanal depth of the 500 mb longwave trough should be similar to the last, with the airmass approximately 5 degrees warmer then the last one. Ultimately though this latest freeze could be colder for early Wednesday morning 01/29/03 versus early this morning, as the cold dry Arctic high pressure ridge may place a center across north Florida this time, allowing for better radiational cooling.

Looks like January 2003 will close out on a cold note and probably will rank within the top five coldest January's ever!

Back To The Top

#2003-24 Published Friday 01/24/03 At 12:00 NOON EST

Well this morning we certainly saw the coldest minimum temperatures of the winter season and the coldest since January 1996 across the north and central regions of the state. Also once again the north and central regions have seen the lowest observed dewpoints I can ever remember, of -5 to +10 deg. F and I have personal weather records back to 1950. The northern 2/3's of the state also saw wind chills in the single digits and teens overnight, as the cold air advected in.

Minimum temperatures across the north and central regions ended up approximately 5 degrees warmer then I thought would occur and winds were approximately 5 mph higher also. Remember once again, this is an educational weather discussion site, not an operational weather forecasting site. Donate some $$$ to this endeavour and I can give you a 48 hour minimum temperature accuracy of +/- 1 deg. F.

Anyway why was it warmer? In order for a two or three day hard freeze, advective then radiative to occur, the surface high pressure center trajectory must be through NE Texas near Dallas, then SE-E along the Gulf Coast near Houston, to the Florida panhandle and then central peninsula. As the 500 mb longwave trough did not dig far enough south, due to a lack of enough 500 mb shortwaves in number traversing it and digging it southward enough, our bitter cold 1041 mb Arctic surface high pressure system is currently over northern Mississppi instead of southern Mississippi. Due to the northward displacement of the surface Arctic high pressure center, in conjunction with the delay in the surface low pressure system bombing out (very rapid strengthening) over the Carolina's, our strong cold air advection (CAA) began approximately 6 hours later then expected, allowing our minimum temperatures to be approximately 5 degrees warmer then I expected.

Also due to the northward displacement of the surface Arctic high pressure center, surface winds have become NNE-NE along the east coast of Florida, setting up a lake affect snow situation and therefore the coast from Daytona Beach to Melbourne Beach has been seeing snow falling from the skies. The same thing happened along the west coast of Florida with the December 1989 100 year freeze.

The cold spot in the state this morning was 12 degrees in Graceville in the NW panhandle. On the central peninsula East Nobleton was the cold spot with 16 deg. with Felda the cold spot on the southern peninsula with 27 deg. The freeze line dipped deep into the inland southern peninsula into NW Dade County, with the hard freeze line down to near S.R. 70 in inland areas.

Speaking of cold, at 12:00 noon the northern 1/3 of the state is still below 32 degrees with most of the central peninsula still in the mid 30's!!! Here at my rural location of West Plant City, I observed 9.25 hours below 32 deg. and 6 hours below 28 deg. and the strawberry fields are covered still covered in thick ice at this noon hour. I'm already hearing reports of 35-95% of crop damage in the local area strawberry fields. Fortunately it appears that the "new" heart of the citrus belt avoided any appreciable damage, with only the northern fringes in Polk County being nipped.

Some selected minimum temperatures for 01/23/03.
The forecast was for "rural inland" areas of the state only.

Forecast Was- Around 10 deg. To Low Teens
Panhandle NW/North-
Bronson FAWN- MM
Chipley- 16
Crestview- 17
De Funiak Springs- 14
Graceville-12
Jay FAWN- 16
Madison- 16
Marianna- 15
Marianna FAWN- 16
Monticello-MM
Panama City- 20
Panama City Beach- 15
Perry- 19
Quincy- 16
Quincy FAWN- 16
Steinhatchee- 19
Tallahassee- 19
Tallahassee Canopy Oaks Elem- 13
Tallahassee Chiles HS- 13

Forecast Was- Low To Mid Teens
Non Panhandle North-
Bell- 20
Glen St. Mary- 18
Jacksonville- 19
Jasper- 16
Lake City- 18
Live Oak- MM
Live Oak FAWN- 18
Macclenny FAWN- 18
Middleburg- 19
Starke- MM

Forecast Was- Low To Mid Teens
North Peninsula-
Alachua FAWN- 18
Chiefland- MM
Cross City- 21
Gainesville- 20
Hastings- 22
Lake Butler- 19
Mayo- 18
Putnam Hall FAWN- 20

Forecast Was- Mid To Upper Teens
North Central Peninsula-
Apopka FAWN- 22
Avalon FAWN- 25
Brooksville NE FAWN- 23
Brooksville South AP- 25
Citra FAWN- 22
Daytona Beach- 26
East Nobleton- 18
Inverness- 23
The Villages- 23
Lady Lake- 23
Leesburg AP- 24 (Urban) Mount Plymouth- 20
Ocala- 21 (Suburban)
Ocklawaha FAWN- 23
Okahumpka FAWN- 24
Orlando Int- 27 (Suburban)
Orlando Ex AP- 28 (Urban)
Pierson FAWN- 23
Sanford- 27
Tavares FAWN- 25
Umatilla FAWN- 22

Forecast Was- Upper Teens To Low 20's
Central Peninsula-
Balm- 26
Bradenton FAWN- 28
Dover FAWN- 27
Kissimmee- 27
Lake Alfred- 27
Lakeland Linder AP- 24 (Suburban)
Melbourne AP- 29 (Urban)
Palm Bay- 28 (Suburban)
Plant City North (Knights Station)- 23
Plant City West- 25/22 Below 32 deg. 9.25 Hrs, Below 28 deg. 6 Hrs
Plant City Climate St.- 26 (Urban)
Ruskin NWS- 26 (Suburban)
San Antonio-20
Scottsmoor- 26
St. Leo- MM
St. Pete./Clearwater Int- 28 (Urban Coastal)
St. Pete. Albert Whitted AP- 30 (Urban Coastal)
Sarasota/Bradenton AP- 30 (Suburban)
Tampa Int- 27 (Urban Coastal)
MacDill AFB South Tampa- 26 (Urban Coastal)
East Tampa Vandenberg AP- 25 (Suburban)

Forecast Was- Mid 20's
South Central Peninsula-
Avon Park- 28
Archbold Bio St- 29
Brighton-29
Fort Pierce AP- 30
Fort Pierce FAWN- 30
Okeechobee- 29
Ona FAWN- 28
Venus- 25
Vero Beach- 31

Forecast Was- Upper 20's To Low 30's
Southern Peninsula/Northern Everglades-
Belle Glade FAWN- 34 (Lake Exposure)
Clewiston- 31
Devils Garden- 32
Punta Gorda- 28
Felda- 27
Fort Myers Reg- 37 (Urban)
Fort Myers Int- 32 (Suburban)
Moore Haven- 33
Immokalee FAWN- 31
LaBelle- 31
Naples- 34 (Urban)
Naples East- 33 (Suburban)
South Bay- 33

Forecast Was- Low 30's
Southern Peninsula/Southern Everglades-
Flamingo Ranger St. 38-
Fort Lauderdale Int- 36 (Urban)
Fort Lauderdale Exec- 35(Urban)
Fort Lauderdale FAWN- 34 (Rural)
Homestead- 36 (Urban)
Homestead AFB- 37 (Suburban)
Homestead FAWN- 36 (Rural)
Miami Int- 37 (Urban)
Miami Beach- 36 (Urban Island)
Ortona- 30 (Rural)
Perrine- 35 (Suburban)
Royal Palm Beach West- 30 (Rural)
West Kendall Apt- 36 (Suburban)
West Palm Beach- 33 (Urban)

Forecast Was-
Florida Keys-
Key West- 45 (Waterfront)
Key West- 40 (Inland)
Kew West NAS- 44 (Waterfront Island)
Marathon- 41
Tavernier-40

Due to the position and expected trajectory of the Arctic high pressure center at the surface and also at 850 mb (5000 ft), a warmer and more moist NE flow is expected as the day wears on. This will mean an onshore flow along the east coast from St. Augustine southward to Fort Pierce and then across all of the southern peninsula. This will hold temperatures above freezing, due to an increase in dewpoints and broken SC cloud cover.

However inland areas north of S.R. 70 and west of the Ronald Reagan Turnpike will once again see subfreezing tempertures for early Saturday morning 01/15/03. Another hard freeze is expected north of I-4 and west of the Ronald Reagan Turnpike and points northward across the northern regions of the state. With a north drainage wind expected in inland regions this will be a radiative freeze (light wind), with scattered cirrus passing overhead.

These cirrus clouds will be associated with the next winter storm system and cold front headed for Florida on Sunday 01/26/03. A deep SE U.S. snow storm is expected with this next system and the snow line will be close to the Florida border, with another sub freezing temperature event expected for Tuesday-Wednesday 01/28-29/03.

Folks I'm afraid we are stuck with at least 3 more weeks of cold weather threats and we can still see even colder weather then our current event.

Back To The Top

#2003-23 Published Thursday 01/23/03 At 10:00 PM EST

The main surge of cold and very dry Arctic air was delayed in it's southward progress into the peninsula today, as the surface low pressure system bombogenisis off of the Carolina's began later then expected.

It's screaming southward for sure now on north winds of 15-30 mph, with sub zero dewpoints across the north, single digit dewpoints into the inland central peninsula and teens and 20's dewpoints further south My memory may be failing me but these are the lowest dewpoints I have ever seen with a Florida freeze event.

At 10:00 pm some selected temperatures and dewpoints:

Crestview 27/-1
Marianna 27/-1
Tallahassee 30/-1
Perry 30/-1
Jacksonville 31/1
Gainesville 32/5
The Villages 34/1
Ocala 36/3
Brooksville 37/5
Plant City 37/5
Vandenberg AP E. Tampa 39/12

We still look on track for a hard freeze in inland areas down to approximately S.R. 64, with a freeze down to an Immokalee, Belle Glade line. Unfortunately my 15 mph wind forecast overnight may be more like 15-25 mph, making all forms of cold protection innefective.

Back To The Top

#2003-22 Published Thursday 01/23/03 At 11:00 AM EST

Looking at the current and future synoptic situation, we have a very strong Arctic Jet Stream from NW Canada straight SE into Florida. At 250 mb we have a screaming jet max of 170 kts/198 mph and 120 kts/140 mph at 500 mb, over the Great Plains diving SE within the full latitude 500 mb longwave trough. We also have a 1050+ mb Arctic surface high pressure system over the Great Plains, ridging SE towards Florida, a strengthening surface low pressure system NE of Jacksonville and the Arctic cold front draped across the central peninsula.

We will also see the 1000-500 mb thickness line of 540 dcm dip down to the approximate latitude of Ocala, the 1000-850 thickness line of 1300 dcm will dip down to approximately Sebring and the 850 mb 0 deg. C/32 deg. F line will dip down to approximately Belle Glade. I also expect to see 850 mb winds from the NW at 50kts/60mph and surface winds from the NW-N gusting to 35 kts/41 mph on land and 45 kts/52 mph along the coast Very strong cold air advection (CAA) indeed.

This all adds up to a very cold and dry Arctic airmass sweeping across the state during the next 24 hours and a hard advective (windy) freeze threatening the tropical fish, strawberry, blueberry, truck crop and citrus growug regions on the central and southern peninsula on early Friday morning 01/24/03. This freeze event will be at least as severe as January 1996 and in some areas rival December 1989, as far as minimum temperature and time durations below 32 deg.

I don't normally publish exact minimum temperatures, as this is an educational not an operational weather site. Also much time and access to expensive real time data is necessary to accurately forecast minimum temperature within 2 deg. F on our heterogenous peninsula.

For tonight in inland areas we can expect:

Around 10 deg. to low teens NW pandhandle and peninsula north, with a north wind of of 15-20 mph, with a sub zero wind chill.

Low to mid teens north central, with a north wind of 15 mph, with a wind chill of 5-10 deg.

Upper teens to low 20's central, with a north wind of 15 mph, with a wind chill of 5-15 deg.

Mid 20's south central, with a north wind of 15 mph, with a wind chill of 10-15 deg.

Upper 20's to low 30's south, with a north wind of 15 mph, with a wind chill of 15-20 deg.

It should be painfully obvious that normal freeze protection measures will not be very effective with the expected 15 mph north wind.

For early Saturday morning 01/25/03 we should see a radiative hard freeze for most of the state but with the surface high pressure center not expected to drop over the central peninsula at this time, the southern 1/3 of the peninsula may be spared.

We will take a closer look at this later today or tonight.

Back To The Top

#2003-21 Published Wednesday 01/22/03 At 11:00 AM EST

We finally are seeing a temporary warming trend with maximum temperatures in the upper 60's to low 70's yesterday and low to mid 70's today. The daily averge minimum temperatures at my three weather stations for the first 22 days is as follows.

Plant City West 37.6 deg.
Plant City North 34.2 deg.
East Nobleton 27.4 deg.

It looks like my worst fears for a hard freeze this season deep into the agricultural regions of the central AND southern peninsula will come to fruition. We have discussed the hard freeze potential all season and then began zeroing in on the unfortunate event weeks ago.

All major models have now come into agreement during the past 48 hours, on a hard advection (windy) freeze event deep into the central peninsula for Friday morning 01/24/03, with a freeze down to approximately Naples to West Palm Beach on the southern peninsula. Models are running at least 10 deg. to warm for early Saturday morning, as I expect a hard radiatiative freeze deep into the inland southern peninsula. I never take models at a face value level, they are simply a tool that "can" be used to verify your thought processes. Well it's rare but the forecast models are verifying my ideas.

Here is a blend of all models MOS for Friday morning 01/24/03. These are the coldest MOS I've seen for Florida since December 1989 and this hard freeze event may very well rival or even exceed December 1989.

Crestview -4
Tallahassee 6
Marianna 8
Gainesville 8
Cross City 9
Pensacola 9
Perry 9
Jacksonville 10
Ocala 11
Apalachicola 13
Brooksville 13
Port Richey 17
Leesburg 18
Lakeland 21
Tampa 22
Orlando 23
Punta Gorda 22
Fort Myers 23
Winter Haven 24
Melbourne 24
Vero Beach 24
Sarasota 25
Naples 31
West Palm Beach 32

During the Thursday-Friday period we may see gale force winds, with maximum temperatures possibly staying below freezing more then 24 consecutive hours across the north and north central peninsula. This would be accompanied by very low wind chills in the single digits north and teens central, with the possibility of orographic and lake effect type snow showers.

I will elaborate further later today or tonight.

Back To The Top

#2003-20 Published Tuesday 01/21/03 At 9:00 PM EST

The cold spot in the state early this morning was 31 deg. at East Nobleton on the central peninsula. Daytime maximum temperatures reached 70 deg. across much of the state and the same is expected on Wednesday 01/21/03. After tomorrow the bottom falls out.

Here are the latest AVN model output statistics. The AVN has come in line with the GFS model but even colder. Friday morning 01/24/03 minimum temperatures listed below below will be with wind, with a radiational cooling freeze for Saturday morning 01/25/03. The Arctic cold front will race across the state on Thursday 01/23/03.

Crestview 3
Cross City 6
Gainesville 7
Apalachicola 10
Jacksonville 10
Perry 14
Brooksville 14
Leesburg 18
Tampa 20
Punta Gorda 21
Fort Myers 27

Back To The Top

#2003-19 Published Tuesday 01/21/03 At 5:00 AM EST

The GFS (old MRF) model that traditionally forecasts minimum temperatures with a warm bias for Florida, forecasts the following minimum temperatures for our state on Friday morning 01/24/03. These are the coldest MOS numbers I've seen for Florida since the 100 year freeze of December 1989. Must be that darned global warming thing again!

Crestview 5
Tallahassee 8
Cross City 9
Marianna 11
Milton 11
Apalachicola 12
Gainesville 12
Jacksonville 13
Ocala 13
Perry 14
Pensacola 13/15
Brooksville 15
Leesburg 22
Orlando 25
Tampa 25/27
Lakeland 25
Punta Gorda 27
Fort Myers 30/31

As we approach the end of the week these numbers should fall another 5-7 degrees. The one ray of hope is, that none of the numerical forecast models have been verifying for weeks and are currently not verifying again. However their error on minimum temperature has been on the warm side.

This is the hard freeze event that I began forecasting four months ago.

Back To The Top

#2003-18 Published Monday 01/20/03 At 11:00 AM EST

The trajectory of the cold surface high pressure system allowed it's center to settle in over the south central peninsula early this morning, resulting in the coldest minimum temperautre readings in the state being observed in this region.

The cold spot in the state early this morning was 18 deg. at Venus WNW of Lake Okeechobee in the citrus belt on the south central peninusula. The cold spot across the north was 22 deg. at Bell. The cold spot across the southern peninsula was 32 deg. at Ortona and South Bay. The subfreezing line extended deep into the inland southern peninsula, with the hard freeze line down to approximately I-4 on the central peninsula.

Other notable minimum temperatures in the citrus belt on the south central peninsula include 23 deg. at Archbold and 31 deg. at Fort Pierce and Vero Beach. Only isolated pockets of the citrus belt saw a hard freeze so damage was minimal.

Other notable minimum temperatures in the state include 23 deg. at East Nobleton, 24 deg. at Crestview, Tallahassee, Chiefland and Mount Plymouth, 25 deg. at Inverness, 27 deg. at Palm Bay, 28 deg. at Scottsmoor, 29 deg. at North Plant City (Knights Station) and 30 deg. at Melbourne.

In the immediate Tampa Bay area the minimum temperatures early this morning were:

32 deg. Rural West Plant City
29 deg. Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)
35 deg. Urban Climate Station Plant City
33 deg. Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
37 deg. Rural FAWN Station Dover
31 deg. Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
37 deg. Suburban NWS Tampa Bay Office Ruskin
37 deg. Rural Balm
43 deg. Urban/Coastal Tampa International Airport
MM deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Airport
39 deg. Urban/Coastal Mac Dill AFB
39 deg. Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport
46 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete. Albert Whitted Airport

So far this season, at my rural West Plant City weather station location I have seen 10 mornings of 32 deg. or lower, with the coldest reading at 27 deg. At my second weather station in rural North Plant City (Knights Station) 15 mornings have seen 32 deg. or lower, with the coldest reading at 25 deg. At my third weather station in East Nobleton in Sumter County 32 mornings have seen 32 deg. or lower, with the coldest reading at 19 deg.!

So far during the first 20 days of January 2003 daily mean minimum temperature has been running approximately 10-15 deg. below normal across the state!

Looking down the road in th near term, Tuesday-Thursday early mornings 01/21-23/03 look warmer but still cold to chilly but with low 70's during the day. Unfortunately it also appears that the third salvo of Arctic air that will arrive for Friday-Saturday 01/24-25/03 WILL BE THE COLDEST YET THIS SEASON and an advection type (windy). Something to note is that this latest Arctic air invasion will travel nearly it's full length from Siberian Russia to the deep south of the U.S. over snow cover, increasing the danger of a more widespread hard freeze deep into the southern peninsula.

In the mid term our Siberian Arctic express pattern will steadily reload, as the El Nino pattern stokes back up temporarily, possibly providing us with some precipitation. After tremendous El Nino enhanced record rainfall in December 2002, the first 20 days of January 2003 have been bone dry, due to the endless cold onslaught.

As is common in moderate El Nino years, as we move into the first two weeks of February 2003, expect the reloaded Siberian Express onslught of Arctic air to once again invade Florida.

Back To The Top

#2003-17 Published Sunday 01/19/03 At 11:00 AM EST

We had a second surge of wind and clouds across the peninsula overnight with the exiting 500 mb shortwave trough, saving the agricultural regions of the southern peninsula from any significant freeze damage. The subfreezing line did dip deep into the inland southern peninsula to near U.S. 41, with the hard freeze line down to near S.R. 50 west of U.S. 27 on the west central peninsula.

The cold spot in the state early this morning was 20 deg. at Tallahassee, a rare occurrence. Tallahassee has a reputation as the perennial state cold spot because it holds the all time official record low temperature in the state of -2 deg. F. Though it is usually the coldest first order station in the state, it's much warmer then other official second order climatological stations in the state. A similar situation also occurs at Brooksville which is almost always the coldest station on the central peninsula but considerably warmer then other surrounding locations like East Nobleton and Inverness. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 21 deg. at East Nobleton, with the cold spot across the southern peninusula of 31 deg. at Clewiston.

Other notable minimum teperatures include 21 deg. at Perry and Jasper across the north, 23 at Mount Plymouth, 27 at Palm Bay, 28 deg. at Venus WNW of Lake Okeechobee and 31 deg. at Fort Pierce on the central peninsula and 32 deg. at South Bay, Ortona, Big Cypress and Immokalee.

In the immediate Tampa Bay area the minimum temperatures early this morning were:

29 deg. Rural West Plant City
27 deg. Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)
30 deg. Urban Climate Station Plant City
30 deg. Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
36 deg. Rural FAWN Station Dover
32 deg. Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
33 deg. Suburban NWS Tampa Bay Office Ruskin
33 deg. Rural Balm
38 deg. Urban/Coastal Tampa International Airport
37 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Airport
36 deg. Urban/Coastal Mac Dill AFB
35 deg. Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport
44 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete. Albert Whitted Airport

This morning we are seeing renewed cold air advection (CAA) in the wake of the last 500 mb shortwave trough. Winds are shifting to north and dewpoints are once again crashing on the peninsula. You could argue that we are really experiencing dry air advection (DAA) today.

With the surface high pressure center expected over the peninsula late tonight, this means cold dry air in place, with a clear sky and calm wind, so perfect radiational cooling conditions are expected. We could see temperature "drops" overnight in inland rural areas of 30-40 degrees, with the subfreezing line dipping into the inland rural Redlands agriculture region SW of Miami. A borderline hard freeze will also threaten the inland rural citrus belt of the south central peninsula/northern Everglades, with isolated colder pockets seeing a hard freeze.

Looking down the road in th near term, Tuesday-Thursday early mornings 01/21-23/03 look warmer but still cold. Unfortunately it also appears that the third salvo of Arctic air that will arrive for Friday-Saturday 01/24-25/03 may be as cold or even colder yet, as there may be a layer of snow on the ground just across the Florida border and northward across the deep south to the Atlantic coast.

In the mid term our Siberian Arctic express pattern will steadily reload, as the El Nino pattern stokes back up temporarily, providing us with some precipitation. After tremendous El Nino enhanced record rainfall in December 2002, the first 19 days of January 2003 have been bone dry, due to the cold onslaught.

BUT as is common in moderate El Nino years, as we move into the first two weeks of February 2003, expect the reloaded Siberian Express onslught of Arctic air to once again invade Florida.

Back To The Top

#2003-16 Published Saturday 01/18/03 At 11:00 PM EST

The 500 mb shortwave trough moved through faster then I thought it would, so skies have cleared out again and winds have gone calm to near calm in inland rural areas. Here in West Plant City east of Tampa it's 29 deg. already and we fell below freezing at 8:30 pm.

It now appears that the subfreezing line will dip into the inland rural Redlands agriculture region SW of Miami. A borderline hard freeze will also threaten the inland rural citrus belt of the south central peninsula/northern Everglades, with isolated colder pockets seeing a hard freeze.

Back To The Top

#2003-15 Published Saturday 01/18/03 At 3:00 PM EST

Wow what a bone chilling sunrise early this morning with the subfreezing line down into the inland southern peninsula from Immokalee to Belle Glade, on a 5-10 mph north wind. The cold spot in the state was 17 deg. at Crestview on the NW panhandle. Tallahassee and Perry were right behind with 19 deg. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 19 deg. at East Nobleton. Other notable temperatures on the central peninsula were 23 deg. at Brooksville, 25 deg. at North Plant City (Knights Station) and 26 deg. at Venus, WNW of Lake Okeechobee, in the citrus belt. The cold spot across the southern peninsula was 31 deg. at Belle Glade, with Immokalee and Ortona right behind at 33 deg. Fortunately hard freeze conditions remained north of I-4 and west of U.S. 27 on the west central peninsula.

In the immediate Tampa Bay area the minimum temperatures early this morning were:

27 deg. Rural West Plant City Below 32 deg. 7 Hrs
25 deg. Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)Below 32 deg 8 Hrs
30 deg. Urban Climate Station Plant City
30 deg. Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
31 deg. Rural FAWN Station Dover
32 deg. Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
34 deg. Suburban NWS Tampa Bay Office Ruskin
31 deg. Rural Balm
33 deg. Urban/Coastal Tampa International Airport
38 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Airport
32 deg. Urban/Coastal Mac Dill AFB
35 deg. Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport
39 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete. Albert Whitted Airport

Temperatures have struggled to climb above 40 deg. across the north, above 50 central and mid 50's south. Even scarier are dewpoints that have crashed on a north wind across the north in the single digits, single digits to teens inland central and 20's south. If see clear skies and a calm wind tonight we are looking at a hard freeze into the citrus belt of the south central peninsula/northern Everglades.

However the saving grace is another 500 mb shortwave trough that will swing across the state overnight hopefully with broken high cloudiness and a more moist backing NW wind with renewed cold air advection (CAA). Overnight tonight we will end up with a similar situation as early this morning, with an advection freeze (windy) down into the inland southern peninsula from near Immokalee to Belle Glade, with a hard freeze down to near I-4 west of U.S. 27 across the west central peninsula.

Sunday 01/19/03 we should see the wind turn back to the north, with dewpoints once again crashing to critically low levels. With the cold dry surface high centered across the central peninsula early Monday morning 01/20/03 and a calm wind, perfect radiational cooling conditions will occur. This will allow the subfreezing line to dip into the inland rural Redlands agriculture region SW of Miami. A borderline hard freeze will also threaten the inland rural citrus belt of the south central peninsula/northern Everglades, with isolated colder pockets seeing a hard freeze.

Looking down the road we will see a slow warmup in temperature from Tuesday-Thursday 01/21-23/03, with the possibility of even colder weather arriving beginning Friday 01/24/03. Geez will it ever end!!!!!

Back To The Top

#2003-14 Published Friday 01/17/03 At 5:00 PM EST

For everyone hanging by a thread (just kidding) waiting for my routine 11:00 AM post, sorry for the delay as I was out today in rural wilds of North Plant City looking at three acres of land and a house that I want to buy.

Well as advertised the Arctic cold front raced across the state earlier this morning. The cold spot in the state early this morning was 32 deg. at Crestview in the NW panhandle. Here in rural West Plant City east of Tampa the cold front passed at approximately 6:00 AM. The maximum temperature for the day of 59 deg. was observed at that time. By 12:00 PM the temperature fell to 50 deg., with a further drop to 46 deg. by 5:00 PM. The peninsula has seen strong cold air advection (CAA) on NW winds of 20-35 mph all day.

Tonight we will see an advection freeze (windy) deep into the southern peninsula down to near Immokalee and west of U.S. 27. A hard freeze will occur into central Florida north of S.R. 54 west of U.S. 27. I think all agricultural areas of the southern 1/3 of the peninsula should escape any significant damage tonight. However any strawberry fields in eastern Pasco County will be in danger.

Freezing temperatures are also a definite for early Sunday, Monday and Tuesday mornings 01/19-21/03. Monday morning still looks the coldest, with a hard freeze threat possible for portions of the citrus belt, of the south central and northern Everglades region. I will elaborate more on that tomorrow.

Back To The Top

#2002-13 Published Thursday 01/16/03 At 11:00 AM EST

The cold spot in the state early this morning was 23 deg. at East Nobleton in west central Florida and also 23 deg. at Venus on the south central peninsula WNW of Lake Okeechobee. Nearby Archbold saw 29 deg. This is in the heart of the new citrus growing region. The cold spot across the north was 24 deg. at Crestview, with the cold spot across the south at Clewiston and Ortona with 39 deg.

In the immediate Tampa Bay area the minimum temperatures early this morning were:

34 deg. Rural West Plant City
32 deg. Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)
39 deg. Urban Climate Station Plant City
35 deg. Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
37 deg. Rural FAWN Station Dover
40 deg. Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
40 deg. Suburban NWS Tampa Bay Office Ruskin
41 deg. Rural Balm
43 deg. Urban/Coastal Tampa International Airport
45 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Airport
44 deg. Urban/Coastal Mac Dill AFB
41 deg. Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport
50 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete. Albert Whitted Airport

This Thursday afternoon 01/16/03 should see a brief temperature warm up into the low to mid 70's BUT unfortunately the Arctic cold front will come screaming into the state on early Friday morning, with high temperatures occurring before sunrise, with a steady temperature fall during the day. The central peninsula will see an advection (windy) freeze early Saturday morning. Unfortunately advection freezes generally negate naturally warmer locations near large bodies of water and even in urban locations, with hill locations often colder then low spots and water irrigation systems less effective.

Early Sunday morning 01/19/03 will also be very cold with a reinforcing shot of Arctic air arriving, with another fast moving 500 mb shortwave trough, creating an advective freeze situation possibility again. Also there is a possibility of seeing some snow flurries across portions of the central peninusula Sunday morning.

I still expect early Monday morning 01/20/03 to be the bitterly coldest under radiational cooling conditions, with a hard freeze flirting with the inland rural heart of the citrus industry from the south central peninsula into the northern Everglades, with the subfreezing line extending southward into the inland rural Redlands agricultural region SW of Miami.

Tuesday-Wednesday early mornings 01/21-22/03 look warmer but still cold.

Unfortunately it also appears that the third salvo of Arctic air that will arrive for Thursday-Friday 01/23-24/03 MAY be even colder yet.

Back To The Top

#2003-12 Published Wednesday 01/15/03 At 5:00 PM EST

Dewpoints have crashed into the low to mid 20's into the inland areas of the central peninsula this afternoon. I would expect the sub freezing line to dip into the inland rural areas of the south central peninsula late tonight, down to near S.R. 80 west of U.S. 27. Though we will have calm wind conditions that will promote a huge temperature drop early, the temperature fall should basically halt after aproximately 3:00 am, due to a more moist NE flow at the boundary level.

Thursday afternoon 01/16/03 should see a brief temperature warm up to near 70 deg. BUT unfortunately the Arctic cold front will come screaming into the state on Friday morning, with a steady temperature fall during the day. The central peninsula will see an advection (windy) freeze into Saturday morning. Unfortunately advection freezes generally negate naturally warmer locations near large bodies of water and even in urban locations, with hill locations often colder then low spots and water irrigation systems less effective.

Early Sunday morning 01/19/03 will also be very cold with a reinforcing shot of Arctic air arriving, creating an advective freeze situation possibility again. I still expect early Monday morning 01/20/03 to be bitterly cold under radiational cooling conditions. Tuesday-Wednesday early mornings 01/21-22/03 look warmer but still cold. Unfortunately it also appears that the third salvo of Arctic air that will arrive for Thursday-Friday 01/23-24/03 MAY be even colder yet.

Back To The Top

#2003-11 Published Wednesday 01/15/03 At 11:00 AM EST

Yes it was cold in Florida ONCE AGAIN this morning. I can't recall such consistent cold weather here in the sunshine state since the winter of 1995-96 and 1980-81. The cold spot in the state was 27 deg. at Venus on the south central peninsula WNW of Lake Okeechobee. Nearby Archbold saw 29 deg. This is in the heart of the new citrus growing region. The cold spot across the north was 30 deg. at Crestview, with the cold spot across the south at Immokalee with 38 deg.

Other notable minimum temperatures include 30 deg. at Perry, Brooksville and East Nobleton, 31 deg. at MacClenny and 32 deg. at Inverness, Knights Station and Mount Plymouth.

In the immediate Tampa Bay area the minimum temperatures early this morning were:

34 deg. Rural West Plant City
32 deg. Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)
39 deg. Urban Climate Station Plant City
35 deg. Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
38 deg. Rural FAWN Station Dover
42 deg. Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
39 deg. Suburban NWS Tampa Bay Office Ruskin
38 deg. Rural Balm
43 deg. Urban/Coastal Tampa International Airport
47 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Airport
41 deg. Urban/Coastal Mac Dill AFB
41 deg. Suburban Sarasota/Bradenton Airport
50 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete. Albert Whitted Airport

Looking ahead to the next 7 days. First of all let me say that most all government and private weather forecasters continue to underestimate the upcoming one two three punch of Arctic air that will begin invading the state on Friday 01/17/03, with a second surge on Sunday 01/19/03 and a third surge on Wednesday 01/22/03.

This is not a criticism just an observation. The problem is an over dependence on numerical weather forecast models. Absolutely none of the models in existence have been verifying with any consistency, leaving most with no real clue. As I've said before, my forecasts are made using persistence, climatology, looking upstream for verification and also teleconnection patterns. I give weather forecasting models only a cursory glance.

Looking at the source region of the incoming Arctic air, it's trajectory, it's current 850 mb core temperature, current snow cover, projected snow cover with the impending deep south traversing extra tropical low pressure center, a series of shortwave troughs that will carve out a deep 500 mb long wave trough in the eastern U.S. I still think that the upcoming freeze events for Friday-Thursday 01/17-23/03 will be significant and "possibly" as bad as January 1996 and 1997. This forecast my friends is not based on speculation.

The coldest morning should be early Monday 01/20/03. With less standing surface water across most of the peninsula at the moment compared to previous freeze events this winter. Also with cold air in place, coupled with low dew points, clear skies and a calm wind, perfect radiational cooling conditions will occur. The toughest part of the forecast this far in advance, is trying to determine the timing and trajectory of cold dry surface high pressure center across the peninsula. To far west or east by sunrise Monday morning and it will be warmer. To far south and the agricultural regions of the deep southern peninsula will be coldest.

This my take on the freeze event today but warmer or colder conditions could ultimately occur. I expect the subfreezing line to extend southward into the inland rural Redlands agricultural region SW of Miami. However at this moment durations below freezing may spare the region widespread damage. The inland rural heart of the citrus industry from the south central peninsula into the northern Everglades will see borderline hard freeze conditions (below 28 deg. for four or more hours), with the coldest isolated pockets seeing upper teens to low 20's. Inland rural areas of the north central and central peninsula will see a hard freeze, with the normally coldest areas dipping into the mid and upper teens. Remember though this forecast is for inland rural areas only. Urban and coastal regions will be much warmer.

Back To The Top

#2003-10 Published Tuesday 01/14/03 At 5:00 PM EST

I still think that the upcoming freeze event for Sunday-Tuesday 01/19-21/03 will be significant and possibly as bad as January 1996 and 1997. I think other public and "most" private forecasters are being overly dependent on numerical forecast models that continue to flip flop back and forth. My forecasts are made using persistence, climatology, looking upstream for verification and also teleconnection patterns. I give weather forecasting models only a cursory glance.

Also let me reiterate this once again that, as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

As promised in this mornings post, looking down the road in the mid term of 01/23-31/03, teleconnections still signal a colder to much colder then normal period. This keeps a devastating statewide hard freeze a possibility. Just a note. In most situations where Florida has experienced a state wide devasting hard freeze event, a strong surface extra tropical winter low pressure system passed somewhere across the state, pulling the bitter Arctic values southward.

The El Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream (+SOI) will continue weak, removing the block to intrusions of Arctic air, as the Pacific-North American jet stream pattern (+PNA) continues with a big ridge in the western U.S. and deep trough in the eastern U.S., in conjunction with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO), which promotes cold longwave troughing along the east coast of the U.S. Also we can't forget the high pressure ridge thumb in the Caspian Sea region of Asia. All of these teleconnections patterns mean cross polar flow transfer of bitter Arctic air from Siberian Russia into the eastern 2/3's of Canada and the U.S.

Speaking of bitter cold, eastern Europe has been seeing incredibly low record breaking temperatures of 20-45 below zero F recently, resulting in 100's of deaths in a region used to long cold winters. Record breaking cold weather has also been killing 100's in India, an area normally shielded from Arctic air outbreaks due to the Himalaya Mountain range barrier. Also Siberian Russia has been contending with 75 below zero F temperatures, the source region for the Arctic air presently entering Canada and the U.S. I don't think this part of the planet believes in the big hoax of global warming right now.

Back To The Top

#2003-9 Published Tuesday 01/14/03 At 11:00 AM EST

My website and email server problems seem to be cleared up finally.

To recap once again, it was quite chilly on Sunday-Monday 01/12-13/03, especially across the north central peninsula north. A series of 500 mb shortwave troughs raced through the region, creating cold temperatures under cloudy skies with a stiff north wind and a mixture of rain sleet and snow across the north. However no subfreezing minimum temperatures occurred. Yesterday afternoon saw huge temperature differences across the central peninsula, with Lady Lake only reaching 48 deg. with light rain and Balm lived up to it's name at 68 deg. with more sunshine.

Tuesday morning 01/14/03 dawned cold once again behind the latest cold front. The tentative cold spot was 28 deg. at Crestview, with mid 30's down to approximately S.R. 50 with wind. Here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa I had 42 deg., with 38 deg. in North Plant City (Knights Station).

In the near term the subfreezing line should make it down to approximately S.R. 50 west of the Ronald Reagan Turnpike for early Wednesday morning 01/15/03, with a slow warming trend through Thursday 01/16/03. On Friday 01/17/03 the next cold front arrives with yet another shot of cold air. This front will be the leading edge of the coldest weather of the season, giving us an unpleasantly cold Saturday 01/18/03, with the subfreezing line should make it down to approximately I-4 west of the Ronald Reagan Turnpike, with wind.

A reinforcing cold front will sweep through on Sunday 01/19/03 with Arctic air, setting the stage for a significant freeze event deep into the inland agricultural region of the southern peninsula on Monday-Tuesday 01/20-21/03. This freeze event may rival the January 1996 and 1997 events.

Unfortunately though this is probably not the coldest freeze event that we will be seeing this month. Later today or tomorrow as time permits I will take a hard look at current teleconnection patterns, to try to nail down the probability and timing of the "big freeze".

Back To The Top

#2003-8 Published Saturday 01/11/03 At 11:00 AM EST

I'm still experiencing some problems accessing my website and email servers, so I have been hampered in posting any weather discussions since 1/08/03.

We are currently seeing some sleet/ice pellets falling from the skies across NW-N Florida. We may also see some snow flakes later today, as the cold air thickness values become more favorable. This frozen precipitation event is an ominous harbinger of more unpleasant weather ahead of the un-sunshine state.

For at least three weeks I've been discussing the good probability of a serious crop threatening freeze in the agriculture areas of Florida between 01/11-22/03.

Well unfortunately it appears that the cross polar flow of Arctic air from Siberian Russia into the state will begin on Sunday 01/19/03. The air mass source is currently seeing -75 deg. Below zero temperatures.

Just a brief synopsis of the past 4 days. Thursday morning 01/09/03 dawned cold, what else is new right?! The cold spot in the state was 32 deg. at East Nobleton on the central peninsula.

Friday afternoon 01/10/03 saw a brief temperature warmup with temperatures in the mid to upper 60's north, low to mid 70's central and upper 70's south. Some light rainshowers also occurred across the state ahead of the next cold front.

Saturday 01/11/03 dawned windy and much colder behind the cold front, with 30's into the north central peninsula but no subfreezing temperatures were observed in the state.

This Sunday morning 01/12/03 also dawned cold, windy and cloudy with mid 30's into the central peninsula but once again no subfreezing temperatures occurred across the state.

Back To The Top

#2003-7 Published Wednesday 01/08/03 At 11:00 AM EST

Many areas of the state saw their coldest morning so far this winter season. The cold spot in the state was 20 deg. at East Nobleton on the central peninsula. The cold spot across the north was 22 deg. at Crestview. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 34 deg. at Belle Glade.

Other notable minimum temperatures include 23 deg. at Inverness and Brooksville, 24 deg. at Ocala, and 25 deg. at Mount Plymouth on the central peninsula. Venus on the south central peninsula saw 23 deg. with nearby Archbold seeing 28 deg.

In the immediate Tampa Bay area the minimum temperatures were:

30 deg. Rural West Plant City
27 deg. Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)
32 deg. Urban Climate Station Plant City
30 deg. Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
36 deg. Rural FAWN Station Dover
32 deg. Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
33 deg. Suburban NWS Tampa Bay Office Ruskin
32 deg. Rural Balm
37 deg. Urban/Coastal Tampa International Airport
35 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Airport
39 deg. Urban/Coastal Mac Dill AFB
42 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete. Albert Whitted Airport

So far this season, at my rural West Plant City weather station location I have seen 7 mornings of 32 deg. or lower, with the coldest reading at 30 deg. At my second weather station in rural North Plant City (Knights Station) 10 mornings have seen 32 deg. or lower, with the coldest reading at 27 deg. At my third weather station in East Nobleton in Sumter County 25 mornings have seen 32 deg. or lower, with the coldest reading at 20 deg.!

I will look ahead weather wise in a second post later today.

Back To The Top

#2003-6 Published Tuesday 01/07/03 At 4:00 PM EST

For those of you used to an 11:00 AM post, I decided to delay until now, so as to get a better handle on the regional synoptic situation. We have seen some pretty strong cold air advection (CAA) so far today with temperatures 10-20 deg. colder then this time yesterday but the dry air advection has not been that impressive. There is a slight NNE component along the east coast allowing for some moistening of the surface flow along and east of the central ridge.

At 4:00 pm dewpoints in the low 20's have reached down to the latitude of Ocala, with upper 20's down to the latitude of Brooksville, west of the Ronald Reagan Florida Turnpike. Here in rural west Plant City east of the Tampa the dewpoint is 32 deg. with low 30's along the inland west side of the peninsula down to Collier County.

Yes it was cold AGAIN early this morning with the subfreezing line down to near S.R. 50 west of U.S. 27, with subfreezing wind chills deep into the southern peninsula. The cold spot in the state was 27 deg. at MacClenny and Bell in the NE part of the state. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 30 deg. at Inverness, Ocala and east Nobleton. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 41 deg. at the tourist mecca of Devils Garden with 41 deg. Some other notable minimum temperatures include 30 deg. at Alachua, 32 deg. at Brooksville, Citra, Putnam Hall and 33 deg. at Mount Plymouth.

In the immediate Tampa Bay area the minimum temperatures were:

35 deg. Rural West Plant City
35 deg. Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)
35 deg. Urban Climate Station Plant City
37 deg. Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
38 deg. Rural FAWN Station Dover
39 deg. Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
40 deg. Suburban NWS Tampa Bay Office Ruskin
40 deg. Rural Balm
41 deg. Urban/Coastal Tampa International Airport
43 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Airport
44 deg. Urban/Coastal Mac Dill AFB
45 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete. Albert Whitted Airport

Minimum temperatures were uniform due to wind but on calm clear nights huge temperature differences of up to 20 deg. occur between inland versus coastal and rural versus urban locations.

Tonight is another tough minimum temperature forecast, not that any are ever easy here on heterogenous FLorida peninsula. I don't think we will see optimum radiational cooling conditions overnight. With the main cold and dry surface high pressure center axis still along the upper Texas coast, boundary level winds will stay up, with occasional mixing down to the surface of a light inversion busting winds and a slight onshore flow.

However if a surface ridge extension noses eastward to the central peninsula later tonight, winds "could" go calm for an extended period of time, with the coldest temperatures across the inland rural citrus and vegetable growing region of the south central/northern Everglades region of the southern peninsula. We also still have several mid level vorticity maximums that will swing through overnight with occasional broken cirrus clouds, that could slow the temperature fall.

Bottom line though I think the subfreezing line will extend southward into the inland rural southern peninsula down to near U.S. 41 west of U.S. 27, with a significant freeze in inland rural areas north of I-4 and west of the Ronald Reagan Florida Turnpike.

Back To The Top

#2003-5 Published Monday 01/06/03 At 11:00 AM EST

The cold spot in the state this morning was 24 deg. at Inverness and East Nobleton on the central peninsula. The cold spot across the north was 26 deg. at Bell. The cold spot across the southern peninsula was 39 deg. at Ortona.

Other notable minimum temperatures include 30 deg. at Brooksville and Venus, 31 deg. at Mount Plymouth and Archbold and 32 deg. at Scottsmoor, all on the central peninsula.

Here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa it was 36 deg. with patchy frost. Other Hillsborough County readings include 33 deg. at North Plant City (Knights Station), 37 deg. at Vandenberg Airport in east Tampa, 38 deg. at the FAWN station in Dover and the climatological substation in urban Plant City, 39 deg. in rural Balm and 43 deg. at TIA in urban Tampa.

The next reinforcing cold front will sweep through the peninsula today with the coldest weather of the winter season so far expected for the peninsula. The subfreezing line is expected to extend down to near S.R. 50, on the central peninsula early Tuesday morning 01/07/03, with wind.

For early Wednesday morning 01/08/03 expect the subfreezing line down to near the Alligator Alley in inland rural areas of the southern peninsula, with a radiational cooling freeze. At this moment it's difficult to decide just how perfect radiational cooling conditions will be on early Wednesday morning, with some high clouds and also some onshore wind flow possible, holding minimum temperatures up some.

Reinforcing cold fronts are also expected to sweep across the state on Wednesday 01/08/03 and Friday 01/10/03. Back To The Top

#2003-4 Published Sunday 01/05/03 At 11:00 AM EST

Yet another cold morning dawned in Florida. As I forecasted, the subfreezing line extended southward to near S.R. 80 west of U.S. 27. The cold spot in the state was 23 deg. at East Nobleton, North Port and Venus on the central peninsula. The cold spot across the north was 25 deg. at Crestview. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 38 deg. at Immokalee.

Other notable minimum temperatures include 24 deg. at Brooksville, 26 deg. at Alachua, Inverness and Mount Plymouth, 28 deg. at North Plant City (Knights Station. Here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa the minimum temperature was 32 deg. At the official climatological substation in urban Plant City it was 34 deg. By the way this station was recently relocated and is improperly exposed near trees and buildings.

Expect another cold early Monday morning 01/06/03, then the coldest air of the season so far begins arriving on Tuesday 01/07/03 with the next cold front. Wednesday-Thursday 01/08-09/03 should see a significant freeze event across the inland rural areas of the central peninsula.

Back To The Top

#2003-3 Published Friday 01/03/2003 At 11:00 AM EST

On Friday 01/03/03 it turned out to be a cloudy, chilly and windy day following the latest cold front of the season. Fortunately, for a change though the central peninsula saw little significant rainfall but the southern peninsula did see 1-2" rainfall totals.

Early this Saturday morning 01/04/03 dawned quite cold and windy with the subfreezing line dipping down to approximately I-4 west of U.S. 27 on the central peninsula. The cold spot in the state was 23 deg. at Crestview on the western panhandle. The cold spot on the central peninsula was 31 deg. at FAWN station NE of Brooksville and at East Nobleton. The cold spot on the southern peninsula was 39 deg. at Royal Palm Beach West. Here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa it was 34 deg., with 32 deg. in North Plant City (Knights Station).

For this afternoon temperatures will struggle to surpass 50 deg. across the north and mid 50's central, as cold dry air advection continues. For early Sunday morning 01/05/03 the coldest temperatures of the season may be observed under radiational cooling conditions, with the subfreezing line down to approximately S.R. 80, west of U.S. 27, in inland rural areas of the southern peninsula. However a saving grace "MAY" be a broken deck of cirrus clouds and also a secondary surge of cold air with wind late tonight, in association with another swift moving 500 mb shortwave trough.

It appears that another relatively dry cold front will sweep across the state early next week, with MORE cold weather. Actually all of the upcoming week of 01/05-11/03 looks to be colder then normal, with the two week period of 01/12-25/03 even colder. GOOD GRIEF I'm moving to Key West!!!!!

Back To The Top

#2003-2 Published Thursday 01/02/2003 At 11:00 AM EST

For those of you that missed my January 2003 weather outlook published on 12/30/02 here is a brief rehash, then on to today's weather discussion.

..........Now to the January 2003 weather outlook. Colder then normal like November and December 2002.

As I've mentioned so many times recently in order to drive home and important point, we are seeing a moderate El Nino ocean temperature anomaly this time around. This means colder weather then with a strong El Nino, such as we had in 1997-98. True to form we are seeing this colder then normal winter so far, as well as very wet. However at the same time, in theory it is possible that we could escape without a serious crop damaging freeze event this season due to the El Nino. Why? Because the El Nino enhanced subtropical jet stream acts to prevent the polar jet from developing the required sharp latitudinal 500 mb longwave trough depth, necessary for serious freeze events. And idea that government and even some private weather forecasters bit on for the 2002-2003 winter season.

A wrench in the gears of this concept, is that a moderate El Nino can and does fade somewhat in and intermittent and unpredictable manner, through out the winter season. This occurrence allows for increasing chances of crop damaging freeze probabilities in 10-14 day increments.

Looking down the road, teleconnections signals say that the first 10 days of January 2003 should be colder and wetter then normal, but with chances of a widespread crop threatening freeze at less then 50%, thanks to El Nino. However big changes will occur by day 11. The El Nino enhanced subtropical jet will weaken (+SOI) temporarily, ending the endless parade of low latitude cool and wet winter storms, as the Pacific North American jet stream pattern (PNA) once again develops, as a big ridge in the western U.S. and deep trough in the eastern U.S., in conjunction with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO). Also let's don't forget the high pressure ridge thumb in the Caspian Sea region of Asia. All of these teleconnections patterns mean cross polar flow transfer of Arctic air from Siberian Russia into the eastern 2/3's of Canada and the U.S. and into Florida.

End result for Florida is a probable significant crop threatening freeze event or two probable between the 11th and 22nd. Thereafter we return to a warmer but still below normal temperature wise wet El Nino pattern for the remainder of the month..........

And now for today's ramble. At my weather station in rural west Plant City east of Tampa, December 2002 averaged out at 5.1 deg. below normal, exactly the same as November 2002! My December 2002 rainfall total of 20.08" was a new month record, eclipsing the December 1997 El Nino enhanced total of 15.71". My 2002 rainfall total was 90.11", with 73.36" in 1997 as a comparison. Actually many areas of the central peninsula saw 100-110" of rainfall in 2002.

Other west central Florida rainfall totals for December 2002.

RUSKIN (SIMMONS PARK) 20.53"
PINELLAS PARK 19.21"
RUSKIN (NWS OFFICE) 17.51"
OLDSMAR 17.53"
BRANDON 17.43"
ST. PETE. ALBERT W. APT. 17.41"
ST. PETE. CLEARWATER APT. 16.69"
PALMETTO 15.88"
BARTOW 14.97"
TAMPA INTERNATIONAL APT 14.10"
COLEMAN 13.59"
WINTER HAVEN APT. 12.52"
BROOKSVILLE 11.76"
SARASOTA/BRADENTON APT. 11.63"
HOLDER 10.18"
LAKE PLACID 7.84"
PUNTA GORDA APT. 6.88"
FORT MYERS PAGE FIELD 3.58"

It was nice to have some mild weather on New Years Day, as the temperature rose to 74 deg. here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa. Overflow waters from my cypress and maple swamp located on the back side of my property literally came within inches of entering my home, thanks to the 6.01" of rain that fell on New Years Eve over and approximate 4 hour period. The creek that my swamp empties into called Sparkman/Pemberton, was 150 yards wide versus it's normal 5 yard width yesterday afternoon.

Today is another mild day with temperatures just breaking 70 deg. on the central peninsula under increasingly cloudy skies. The coldest temperature I could find in the state early this morning was 41 deg. at Crestview in the NW panhandle region. Here in rural west Plant City it was 51 deg. with fog at sunrise.

Rain chances increase once again Friday 01/03/03 with the next winter storm and cold front. However it appears that this will not be a major widespread heavy rainmaker, like virtually every winter storm so far this season. However I think it will be more significant then is presently being forecast, as the El Nino enhanced subtropical jet has been able each and every time to bring in more moisture and energy then forecast models and even I thought would occur.

Much colder weather also begins arriving tomorrow afternoon and I would expect and advection (windy) freeze down to approximately S.R. 48 on the central peninsula on early Saturday morning 01/04/03 and then a radiational cooling freeze down to inland rural areas north of S.R. 80 on the southern peninsula for early Sunday morning 01/05/03.

By the way the inland rural region between S.R. 40 and S.R. 54, the original heart of the now decades gone citrus belt, has seen repeated freeze events of 15-19 mornings so far this winter season! This was so common and occurrence in the 1970's and 1980's that the heart of the citrus industry was moved approximately 100 miles further south.

Looking down the road in the nearer term, it will be a cold and wet period through the 10th. Then during the mid period between the 11th and 22nd, a significant crop threatening freeze event or two is probable. The freeze threat(s) could be of a similar magnitude as the ones in January 1996 and 1997. Thereafter we return to a warmer but still still below normal temperature wise wet El Nino pattern for the remainder of the month.

Back To The Top

#2003-1 Published Wednesday 01/01/2003 At 12:15 AM EST

Happy New Year to all! Well I forecasted another widespread El Nino enhanced rainfall event but this event has exceeded my expectations. I have to say WOW what a wild end to the year weather wise, as tremendous rainfall totals continue piling up across the already waterlogged Florida peninsula. As of 11:59 pm 12/31/02 here in rural west Plant City east of Tampa I've measured 5.59" of rainfall and it's still raining very heavily, with my backyard including my weather station standing in 6"-12" of water. My December 2002 rainfall total is now 19.66", a new month record with 89.69" for the year 2002.

Other rainfall totals across the entire central peninsula have range between 2-4", with many areas still seeing heavy rainfall and isolated severe thunderstorms. Even more amazing is the very large area including Manatee, Hillsborough and Polk Counties where entrainment has resulted in 9-13" of rainfall.

Tonight's excessive rainfall event will translate into a very serious flooding threat for virtually every river basin and river on the peninsula! With three more months of excessive El Nino rainfall events possible this El Nino is on it's way to surpassing the great El Nino flooding of 1997-98.

Back To The Top

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the resources and time available to conduct an in depth daily Meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will post at 11:00 AM and then when further updates are necessary. On some days I will not make a post, it will always depend on current weather events.

Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still and inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. This site and all discussions, forecasts and outlooks herein is my intellectual property and copyrighted � 1988-2003 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.