2003
KN4LF DAILY
HF/MF FREQUENCY
RADIO PROPAGATION OUTLOOK ARCHIVE
KN4LF
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-21
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YY
Published Tuesday 12/14/03 At 2100 UTC
PAST 72 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Sunspot Groups- #10520 currently contains a beta-gamma twisted magnetic field capable of producing large M class solar flares.
Daily Solar Flux Readings- 89 to 84.
The
daily solar flux reading of 84 that occurred on the 12/12/03 was the
lowest since 02/98, which was on the rising side of solar cycle 23.
Daily SEC Sunspot Number- 40 to 35.
Daily X-Ray Solar Flares- C-0 M-0 X-0
X-ray solar flare activity continues quiet but activity will probably increase as sunspot group #10520 now contains a beta-gamma twisted magnetic field capable of producing large M class solar flares.
Daily Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- A9.7 to A7.5.
Daily Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+o)- None.
Daily Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- None.
Recurrent Coronal Hole #071 which became geoeffective beginning on 12/5/03, should finally lose it’s negative impact on Earth’s magnetic field on UTC 12/15/03.
I expect a to see a Kp of 5 (minor geomagnetic storm) at times today but trailing off to a Kp-4 (active) to Kp-3 (unsettled) for tomorrow. A Kp of 0-2 (quiet) will probably occur on days two and three.
We should see a three day period with no geomagnetic storming, then on UTC 12/17/03 recurrent Coronal Hole #72 will rotate into geoeffective position.
As CH #068 on 11/22-24/03 it produced a peak Kp of 5 (minor geomagnetic storm) and an Ap of 52 (major geomagnetic storm).
The daily Ap index has been at active to major storm levels, with a range of 18 to 62.
The daily Kp index has been at unsettled to minor storm levels, with a range of 3 to 5.
The daily solar wind speed has ranged between 619 and 860.
Here are
some "general" guidelines concerning correlation of propagation
indices to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.)
Dropping indices numbers are better, except solar flux for HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is
best for E layer multi hop.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
Keep in
mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a
"reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the energy of photons
at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most
are used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a hard habit to break. A
better indicator is the background x-ray flux.
3.)
Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days
consecutively is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for
high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and
no greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively
for 160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
TODAY'S PROPAGATION LESSON -
#2.) Aurora Oval Blockage, Absorption and Refraction-
The aurora ovals "generally" have a negative impact on medium and
high frequency propagation. If the path over which you are communicating lies
along or inside one of the Aurora Ovals, you will experience degraded
propagation in one of several different forms; strong signal absorption, brief
periods of strong signal enhancement, which is mainly caused by tilts in the
ionosphere that allow signals to become focused at your location or very erratic
signal behavior in the form of strong and rapid fading, etc., caused by a
variety of effects such as multi-pathing, anomalous and rapid variations in
absorption, non-great-circle propagation, horizontal or side refraction and/or
scatter (skewing) due to changes in electron density and polarization changes.
When the Aurora Oval zones are contracted and latitudinally-thin coinciding with
low geomagnetic activity, it is possible for a medium and high frequency
transmitted signal to propagate through the Aurora Oval zone without being
heavily absorbed by skirting underneath it.
During periods of very low geomagnetic activity, areas of the Aurora Oval zones
may only have a latitudinal thickness of approximately 300 miles. But radio
signals reflected from the E-layer can travel over distances of as much as 300
to 1250 miles at heights below the ionosphere for low take-off angles of between
10 and 25 degrees. When the geometry is just right, the medium and high
frequency transmitted signal can literally propagate underneath and through the
Aurora Oval zones into the polar ionosphere which is less disturbed and from the
polar ionosphere back into the middle latitude ionosphere, without ever coming
in contact with the highly absorptive Aurora Ionosphere. This type of
propagation is not as rare as you might think and it can provide unusually
stable polar region path openings to (TA) Transatlantic and (TP) Transpacific
regions. But because the Aurora Oval zone expands and contracts constantly, such
conditions often do not last very long.
GLOBAL 72 HOUR PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
I expect a to see a Kp of 5 (minor geomagnetic storm) at times today but trailing off to a Kp-4 (active) to Kp-3 (unsettled) for tomorrow. A Kp of 0-2 (quiet) will probably occur on days two and three.
We should see a three day period with no geomagnetic storming, then on UTC 12/17/03 recurrent Coronal Hole #072 will rotate into geoeffective position.
As CH #068 on 11/22-24/03 it produced a peak Kp of 5 (minor geomagnetic storm) and an Ap of 52 (major geomagnetic storm).
GLOBAL
LF UNDER 300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Good
Nighttime- Poor But Improving Some
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low
Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Fair To Good
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect fair then becoming good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths.
*Expect poor then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect poor to fair "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths.
+Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect poor then becoming fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming good.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be poor then becoming fair.
"Mid
latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S.
LIGHTNING
STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
During the 72 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern
hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN tied
to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts
and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern
hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "high" lightning induced QRN, tied to
summer season thunderstorms and tropical cyclones. Southern hemisphere high
latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 =
Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap
100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A-
0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation
Outlook #2003-20
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YY
Published Tuesday 12/11/03 At 0300 UTC
PAST 72 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Sunspot Groups- No sunspot groups currently contain a twisted magnetic field
capable of producing large M class solar flares or huge X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 94 to 88.
The daily solar flux reading of 88 that occurred on the 12/10/03 was the lowest
since 03/98, which was on the rising side of solar cycle 23.
SEC Sunspot Number- 49 to 23.
X-Ray Solar Flares- C-0 M-0 X-0
X-Ray Solar flare activity continues quiet but activity will increase as sunspot
group #10501 rotates around the east limb of the Sun shortly.
Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B1.2 to A8.7.
Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None.
Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- None.
Recurrent Coronal Hole #071 became geoeffective beginning on 12/5/03. As #066 on
11/9-14/03 it produced a Kp of 6 (moderate geomagnetic storm). I expect a Kp of
5 (minor geomagnetic storming) to a Kp-6 (moderate geomagnetic storming to
continue for another 72 hours.
The Ap index has been at quiet to major storm levels, with a range of 7 to 69.
The Kp index has been at quiet to moderate storm levels, with a range of 2 to 6.
The solar wind speed has ranged between 352 and 800.
Here are some “general” guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except solar flux for HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a
"reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the energy of photons at
this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most are
used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a hard habit to break. A better
indicator is the background x-ray flux. See #7
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals, when
the Kp is above 3.
TODAY’S PROPAGATION LESSON #1-
1.) MF Propagation Overview-
a.) Medium frequencies encompass 300 to 3000 kc. The simplest way to look at
medium frequencies with respect to propagation issues from a layman's point of
view, is to accept the fact propagation is poor the majority of the time. (See
definition #6. Electron Gyro Frequency Absorption), especially past
approximately 1250 miles (one refraction off of the E-layer), with occasional
short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles.
Medium frequency radio waves possess elliptical polarization, with the signal
splitting into ordinary and extra-ordinary rays. These rays can propagate in or
out of phase, mainly out of phase. The out of phase extra-ordinary ray
represents a 50% power loss on the receive end of a path.
b.) Why? D-layer absorption! At daytime the D-layer, which is at an approximate
height of 30-60 miles in the mesosphere, totally absorbs medium frequency RF
signals most of the time. I say most of the time because at high latitudes,
during the winter season and especially at the low part of a sunspot cycle,
penetration of RF signals through the weakened D-layer and then refraction via
the E-layer does occur. However a fly-in-the-ointment is the fact that the
D-layer does not totally disappear at night. Many books that deal with wave
propagation erroneously state that the D and E-layers disappear after sunset,
totally incorrect thanks to Galactic Cosmic Rays.
c.) Background electromagnetic radiation in the 1 to 10 Angstrom range (Hard
X-Rays) is the main source of ionization of the day time D-layer, with our Sun
as the source of Cosmic Rays, also playing a role.
The following paragraph was contributed by Carl Luetzelschwab K9LA.
A couple years ago I was playing with Proplab Pro on a one-hop 936km path on
160m during daylight. I plotted absorption versus sunspot number. I expected a
nice monotonic increase as the sunspot number increased. But the plot showed
that absorption started at about 60dB at zero sunspots and was constant out to a
sunspot number of about 50. Then it started climbing, reaching 100dB at a
sunspot number of 150. This suggested that there was something other than hard
x-rays and cosmic rays as the source of daytime D region absorption. So I dug
into Davies 1990 (page 61), Hunsucker and Hargreaves (page 31), and Brekke (page
233). They all seem to point to the Lyman-alpha line of the solar spectrum at
1215 Angstroms ionizing NO as the main source of the quiet daytime D region. So
in terms of my absorption versus sunspot number plot, the flat portion up to a
sunspot number of 50 is probably due to the Lyman-alpha line ionizing NO. Then
above a sunspot number of 50 the hard x-rays start contributing as the Sun
becomes more active.
2.) While I'm visiting the subject of electromagnetic radiation, our Sun emits
electromagnetic radiation and matter, as a result of the nuclear fusion process.
Electromagnetic radiation at wavelengths of 100 to 1000 Angstroms (Ultraviolet)
ionizes the F region, radiation at 10 to 100 Angstroms (Soft X-rays), as well as
Cosmic Rays ionize the E region. Galactic Cosmic Rays are the reason that the
E-layer is "always" present at night time, the D-layer also.
Cosmic rays are not rays at all, but particles. They are ionized atoms, atoms
with missing electrons ranging from a single proton up to an iron nucleus and
beyond but typically protons and alpha particles, which have 2 protons and 2
neutrons. They originate from deep space, being produced by a number of
different sources, such as other stars, and more exotic objects, such as
supernova, which are exploding stars and their remnants, neutron stars, black
holes, and distant galaxies. Cosmic Ray particles travel very close to the speed
of light, and are highly energetic.
d.) Recently I saw a post on the Topband Reflector E-List, lamenting the
seemingly unexplainable differences in 160 propagation on certain paths from
night-to-night. A reasonable explanation? Yes, unfortunately small increases in
the density of the night time D-layer over short periods of time, caused by
smaller solar flares and also the general variability of the solar background
X-Ray flux level, can have a profound negative impact on propagation in the form
of increased absorption of high and even mid-latitude medium-frequency signal
paths, both on the MF broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters. Why? It only takes 10
electron volts (ev) of energy to ionize the atmosphere and 1-10 Angstrom X-ray
photons energize the atmosphere at a factor of 100. This translates into D layer
absorption of medium frequency signals. The lower half of the MF broadcast is
always affected first followed by the upper half of the AM broadcast band, then
160 and 120 meters. If you learn nothing else on this website, remember this
simple explanation and pass the word.
e.) After much personal observational research over a 30 year period, I've come
to the conclusion that high and mid latitude TA and TP propagation paths tend to
open up only after a significant period of time passes with an energetic proton
event of no greater then (10+0) on 160 meters and no greater then (10-1) on the
medium frequency broadcast band. Openings also occur when the average solar
background X-ray level falls back to or below C1 for 160 meters and B9 for the
AM broadcast band.
f.) Remember though that there are daily extremes of the Background X-ray flux
level. So even though the daily average might have been good at say B2.2, the
daily "extreme" maximum could have been C1.5, which would have been bad and have
cause a short period of increased D layer absorption.
g.) Though high latitude paths on the day light side of the Earth are primarily
effected, night time high latitude paths can also be impacted by higher
intensity energetic proton events. This fact is still stubbornly opposed by some
otherwise very knowledgeable space weather physicists hung up on high latitude
threshold Riometer data tied to Polar Cap Absorption (PCA).
h.) Another wrench in the gears preventing consistent good propagation on medium
frequencies is related to Sporadic-D (Ds) absorption. Sporadic-D (Ds)
occurrences have an inter-relationship with brief but intense Sun based and
Galactic Cosmic Rays, huge positive cloud to ground lightning strokes and
interrelated Sprites and Elves. Very large bursts of Gamma Rays have also been
observed to occur in conjunction with Sprites. (See definition #14. Sporadic-D
(Ds) Absorption & Wave Guiding.)
i.) Also there is another unavoidable problem, Magneto Ionic Power Coupling.
Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul DX
contact. As a medium frequency RF signal traverses our planets magnetic lines of
force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3
land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily
absorbed then lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation
paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e. horizontally polarized
signals suffer less absorption on a background propagation path between VK6 and
W4.
Magneto Ionic Power Coupling expert Bob Brown NM7M has a good educational thread
on this bugaboo on the May 2002 Topband Reflector. The thread can read in it's
entirety by going to my main radio website page and clicking on the "Topband
Reflector Archive" link in the left-hand column.
j.) Meteorological effects such as troposphere originating Internal
Buoyancy/Gravity Waves (IBGW), stratospheric level Quasi-Biennial Oscillations (QBO)
and stratospheric warming (See definition #16 on Stratospheric Warming) have a
negative effect on MF RF signals in the form of small to medium increased
absorption variations of MF RF signals via the D layer. Also temperature and
moisture discontinuities (frontal inversions) can refract/scatter MF radio
signals in unpredictable ways, most notably on high transmitted RF power levels.
k.) The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a wind shift in the equatorial
stratosphere, an oscillation from easterly to westerly and back on the time
scale of approximately two years (26 months) and is a source of Internal
Buoyancy/Gravity Waves (IBGW's) which create absorptive perturbations in the D
and E layers and even in the F-1&2 layers.
l.) The HAARP Ionospheric program, Thunderstorms, lightning (especially positive
cloud to ground strokes), sprites, tornadoes, hurricanes and even man made
activities such as rocket launches including the space shuttle, are all sources
of (IBGW's). Many times I've heard ham's lament that propagation was going to go
to crap due to another space shuttle launch, in a sense they are correct. (See
definition #9. Meteorological Effects On The Ionosphere). Much more research is
needed on MF and LF radio wave propagation.
72 HOUR PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
We will see continued minor storm Kp-5 to moderate storm Kp-6, with occasional
active Kp-4 geomagnetic conditions through the next 72 hours, thanks to
recurring Coronal Hole #071.
GLOBAL LF UNDER 300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Good
Nighttime- Poor
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good to Fair
High Latitude- Fair To Poor
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect fair to poor "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on
east-west paths.
*Expect poor domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect good domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect fair to poor "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on
east-west paths.
+Expect good domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect poor conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere"
out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be poor.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be poor.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://www.lightningstorm.com/tux/jsp/gpg/lex1/mapdisplay_free.jsp;jsessionid=70301187101071113657379
During the 72 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in
low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter
Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "high" lightning induced QRN,
tied to summer season thunderstorms and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can
expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms,
cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure
systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as
well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit"
propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from
the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore
the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas
F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights
reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit
is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and
are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
EL87WX
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KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-19
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Tuesday 03/09/16 At 1500 UTC
This propagation outlook is already valid for a 72 hour period. Beginning with
today’s outlook I will begin publishing it every 72 hours or three days. The
next outlook will be published on Friday 03/09/19.
PAST 96 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Sunspot Groups No sunspot groups currently contain a twisted magnetic field
capable of producing isolated very large M class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 98 to 94
The daily solar flux reading of 94 that occurred on the 03/09/12 and 03/09/14
was the lowest since 99/05, which was on the rising side of solar cycle 23.
SEC Sunspot Number- 68 to 57
X-Ray Solar Flares- C-9 M-0 X-0
X-Ray Solar flare activity continues unusually quiet lately with no M class
flares since 03/08/19 and no X class solar flares since 03/06/15.
Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B3.1 to B1.4
Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None
Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)- Two partially
geo-effective.
Coronal Holes #056 and 057 rotated into geo-effective position beginning on
03/09/13 but closed on 03/09/14.
Recurrent Coronal Hole #057 rotated into geo-effective position on 03/09/14.
This Coronal Hole was #052 last month and created havoc with the geomagnetic
field, producing a Kp of 7 (strong storm) and an Ap of 122 (severe storm).
Coronal Hole #059 will rotate into geo-effective position on 03/09/19.
In the past 96 hour period the Ap index has been at quiet to unsettled levels,
with a range of 5 to 12.
In the past 96 hour period the Kp index has been at quiet to minor storm levels,
with a range of 1 to 5.
Here are some “general” guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude
path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
TODAY’S PROPAGATION LESSON #14-
14.) Sporadic-D (Ds) Absorption & Wave Guiding-
Sporadic-D (Ds) occurrences have an inter-relationship with brief but intense
Sun based and Galactic Cosmic Rays, huge positive cloud to ground lightning
strokes and interrelated Sprites and Elves. Very large bursts of Gamma Rays have
also been observed to occur in conjunction with Sprites.
Sporadic-D (Ds) absorption occurs both at day and night. Much of the night time
occurrence of Sporadic-D (Ds) absorption is often masked by lightning QRN, as
well as a lack of radio operation during thunderstorm events due to the
lightning strike hazard and/or high QRN levels and also due to the operator not
being able to recognize the mode due to unfamiliarity with it. It's doubtful
that you will read about the Sporadic-D (Ds) phenomena anywhere else other then
on this website.
While on the topic of lightning and propagation, an ionized lightning channel
which normally has a maximum diameter of approximately a silver dollar, can
reflect RF much like meteor trails do. I've personally noticed it on the 70 cm
band, as a single propagation burst lasting 1/4 to 1/2 second.
72 HOUR PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
We will see continued active Kp-4 to minor storm Kp-5 geomagnetic conditions
through today the 18th, thanks to recurring Coronal Hole #057 and two partially
geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejections.
Some brief periods of moderate Kp-6 storm conditions are also possible.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Fair To Poor
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect fair then becoming poor "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
*Expect poor domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect good domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect fair then becoming poor "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
+Expect good domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect poor conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere"
out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be poor.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be poor.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming fair to good.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming fair to good.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/expconus.gif http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/exptropical.gif
During the 72 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low to moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high to moderate" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as
well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit"
propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from
the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore
the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas
F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights
reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit
is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and
are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-18
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Wednesday 03/09/11 At 1600 UTC
PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Sunspot Groups- Sunspot group #10456 contains a twisted magnetic field capable
of producing isolated very large M class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 100 99 100
By the way, yesterday’s 2000 UTC solar flux level of 95.9 was the lowest daily
solar flux reading since June of 1999, which was on the rising side of solar
cycle 23.
SEC Sunspot Number- 43
X-Ray Solar Flares- C-0 M-0 X-0
X-Ray Solar flare activity continues unusually quiet lately with no M class
flares since 03/08/19 and no X class solar flares since 03/06/15.
Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B1.7
Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None
Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)- None
Recurrent Coronal Hole #055 continues in a geo-effective (Earth facing) position
but it’s negative influence on the geomagnetic should continue to wane today and
tomorrow 03/09/11-12.
Coronal Hole #056 will rotate into geo-effective position beginning on
03/09/13-14.
Recurrent Coronal Hole #057 will rotate into geo-effective position on
03/09/15-16. This Coronal Hole was #052 last month and created havoc with the
geomagnetic field producing a Kp of 7 (strong storm) and an Ap of 122 (severe
storm).
As Forecasted-
In the past 24 hour period the Ap index has been at minor storm levels, with a
peak of 33.
In the past 24 hour period the Kp index has been at minor storm levels, with a
peak of 5.
Here are some “general” guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude
path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
TODAY’S PROPAGATION LESSON #13-
13.) X-ray Solar Flares-
A day side earthward bound solar filament and/or approximate C5 class or higher
solar flare can move the proton flux >10 MeV (10+0) and initiate large scale
high latitude propagation path absorption. Even smaller C4 or lower class flares
are the culprit behind hour-to-hour and night-to-night variations in signal
strength on the MF AM broadcast band and 160 meters, both stateside and DX. This
transfer of increased density and RF signal absorption from the day-side D-layer
to night-side of the ionosphere occurs through high level neutral winds.
X-Ray Class Solar Flare. The rank of a solar flare based on its X-ray energy
output. Flares are classified by the order of magnitude of the peak burst
intensity (I) measured at the earth in the 1 to 10 angstrom band as follows:
Class (in Watt/sq. Meter) B- I less than (l.t.) 10.0E-06 C- 10.0E-06 l.e.= I l.t.=
10.0E-05 M- 10.0E-05 l.e.= I l.t.= 10.0E-04 X- I g.e.= 10.0E-04
Background radiation in the 1 to 10 Angstrom range (Hard X-Rays), as well as
Solar and Galactic Cosmic Rays is the source of ionization of the D-layer.
Basically a C-class solar flare possesses energy 1/10 the level of an M- class
solar flare and an M-class solar flare possesses energy 1/10 the level on an
X-class solar flare.
72 HOUR PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
We will see continued unsettled Kp-3 to active Kp-4 geomagnetic conditions
through today the 11th, thanks to recurring Coronal Hole #055.
Some short periods of minor storm Kp-5 conditions are also possible on the 11th,
due to the recent partially geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejection.
A return to quiet Kp-<2 to unsettled Kp-3 geomagnetic conditions are probable
beginning on the 12th.
However a second partially geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejection may throw a
wrench in the gears of my forecast for the 12th. Unfortunately partially
geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejections are tough to forecast as far as impact on
the geomagnetic field.
Looking even further down the road recurrent Coronal Hole #057 will rotate into
geo-effective position on 03/09/15-16. This Coronal Hole was #052 last month and
created havoc with the geomagnetic field, producing a Kp of 7 (strong storm) and
an Ap of 122 (severe storm).
It’s possible that we may return to strong to severe geomagnetic conditions
beginning on 03/09/17-18, a more normal occurrence as we move towards the
Fall/Spring Equinox.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Fair Then Becoming Good
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect fair then becoming good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
*Expect poor then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect fair then becoming good "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
+Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect poor then becoming fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the
"Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be poor then becoming fair.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be poor then becoming fair.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming good.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming good.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/expconus.gif http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/exptropical.gif
During the 72 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low to moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high to moderate" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as
well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit"
propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from
the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore
the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas
F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights
reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit
is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and
are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-17
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as
well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit"
propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from
the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore
the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas
F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights
reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit
is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and
are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Wednesday 03/09/10 At 1800 UTC
PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Sunspot Groups- No sunspot groups currently contain twisted magnetic fields
capable of producing very large or huge M and X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 96 96 97
Sunspot Number- 43
X-Ray Solar Flares- C-0 M-0 X-0
X-Ray Solar flare activity continues unusually quiet lately with no M class
flares since 03/08/19 and no X class solar flares since 03/06/15.
Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B1.6
Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None
Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)- None
Recurrent Coronal Hole #055 continues in a geo-effective (Earth facing) position
but it’s negative influence on the geomagnetic should begin to wane later today
or tomorrow 03/09/10-11.
In the past 24 hour period the Ap index has been at minor storm levels, with a
peak of 32.
In the past 24 hour period the Kp index has been at active levels, with a peak
of 4.
Here are some “general” guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude
path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
TODAY’S PROPAGATION LESSON #10 & 11-
10.) Mid-Winter Absorption Anomaly-
As if we didn't have enough problems with absorption of medium frequencies, the
mid-winter anomaly represents increased medium frequency signal absorption at
high and mid latitudes during dead of winter. A transfer of increased absorptive
density from the summer hemisphere side D-layer to the winter hemisphere side of
the ionosphere occurs through high level neutral winds “may” be involved, as
well as chemical changes in the atmosphere.
11.) Polar Cap Absorption (PCA)-
An anomalous condition of the polar ionosphere whereby MF (300-3000 kc) and HF
(3000-30000 kc) radio waves are absorbed, and LF and VLF (3-300 kHz) Radio waves
are wave guided at lower altitudes than normal. In practice, the absorption is
inferred from the proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0), so that
PCA's, Polar Radio Blackouts and Proton Events are interrelated and often
simultaneous.
((((NOTE!!! high latitude radio propagation paths may still be disturbed for
days, up to weeks, following the end of an official proton event.))))This fact
is still stubbornly opposed by some otherwise very knowledgeable space weather
physicists, hung up on threshold Riometer readings.
72 HOUR PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
We will see continued unsettled Kp-3 to active Kp-4 geomagnetic conditions
through today the 10th, thanks to recurring Coronal Hole #055.
Some short periods of minor storm Kp-5 conditions are also possible on the 10th,
due to the recent partially geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejection.
A return to quiet Kp-<2 to unsettled Kp-3 geomagnetic conditions are probable
beginning on the 11th.
However a second partially geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejection may throw a
wrench in the gears of my forecast for the 11th. Unfortunately partially
geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejections are tough to forecast as far as impact on
the geomagnetic field.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Fair Then Becoming Good
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect fair then becoming good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
*Expect poor then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect fair then becoming good "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
+Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect poor then becoming fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the
"Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be poor then becoming fair.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be poor then becoming fair.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming good.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming good.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/expconus.gif
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/exptropical.gif
During the 72 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low to moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high to moderate" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-16
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as
well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit"
propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from
the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore
the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas
F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights
reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit
is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and
are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Tuesday 03/09/09 At 2300 UTC
PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Sunspot Groups- No sunspot groups currently contain twisted magnetic fields
capable of producing very large or huge M and X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 97 99 99 96 96
Sunspot Number- 58
X-Ray Solar Flares- C-0 M-0 X-0
X-Ray Solar flare activity continues unusually quiet lately with no M class
flares since 03/08/19 and no X class solar flares since 03/06/15.
Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B2.3
Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None
Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)- One partially
geo-effective Coronal mass Ejection occurred on 03/09/08.
Recurrent Coronal Hole #55 continues in a geo-effective (Earth facing) as of
03/09/07and began impacting the geomagnetic field by 1700 UTC on 03/09/08.
In the past 30 hour period the Ap index has been at active levels, with a peak
of 19.
In the past 30 hour period the Kp index has been at active levels, with a peak
of 4.
Here are some “general” guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude
path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
TODAY’S PROPAGATION LESSON #9-
9.) Meteorological Effects On HF/MF Propagation-
Meteorological effects such as troposphere originating Internal Buoyancy/Gravity
Waves (IBGW's), stratospheric level Quasi Biennial Oscillations (QBO) and
warming (STRATWARM) have a negative effect on MF RF signals in the form of small
to medium increased absorption variations of MF RF signals via the D layer.
Also temperature and moisture discontinuities involved with cold frontal
inversions and air mass triple points involved with extra-tropical low pressure
systems can refract, diffract or scatter MF radio signals in unpredictable ways,
most notably on high transmitted RF power levels. This is another concept that a
fellow Physicist and expert in optics took me to ask over.
As far as MF refraction it's more significant at say 3000 kc, then 1850 kc or
1500 kc. But it's also more noticeable with higher transmitted RF powers, i.e.
WSAI 1530 50 KW and even more so with BSKA 1521 KC 1000 KW and now defunct 2000
kc region 100 KW marine stations.
We know that the MF spectrum is defined as 300-3000 kc but the differences in
refractive properties between 300 and 3000 is very significant. At
3000 kc refraction is a good description, on 160 scattering, at 300 kc
diffraction.
Using the strictest definition of RF refraction, it's effect on 160 meters is
small but it has been measured by government researchers as significant enough
to impact 160 but near the air mass triple point. In my opinion scattering is
actually the more consistent propagation medium for 160 meters along a cold
front, away from the extra-tropical cyclone center.
However the temperature and moisture discontinuities in the vicinity of a triple
point air mass structure such as seen with a mature extra-tropical cyclone is
very complex and fluid. The NW quadrant of the extra-tropical cyclone is the
location that the original government researchers identified as the region of
existence for the complex temperature/moisture discontinuity structure that
allows for refraction of RF signals as low as 1500 kc. I have not been
successful at garnering data from the federal government that can be released to
the general public. NOAA has been similarly stymied and therefore is now
conducting similar research.
The QBO is a wind shift in the equatorial stratosphere, an oscillation from
easterly to westerly and back on the time scale of approximately two years (26
months) and is a source of Internal Buoyancy/Gravity Waves (IBGW) which create
absorptive perturbations in the D and E-layers and even possibly the F 1/2
layer.
The HAARP Ionospheric program, Thunderstorms, lightning (especially positive
cloud to ground strokes), sprites, tornadoes and hurricanes and even man made
activities such as rocket launches including the space shuttle, are all sources
of (IBGW's).
Many times I've heard ham's lament that propagation was going to go to crap due
to another space shuttle launch, in a sense they are correct. Much more research
is needed on the subject.
72 HOUR PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
We will see continued unsettled Kp-3 to active Kp-4 geomagnetic conditions
through the 10th, thanks to recurring Coronal Hole #55.
Some minor storm Kp-5 conditions are also possible on the 10th, due to the
recent partially geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejection.
A return to quiet Kp-<2 to unsettled Kp-3 geomagnetic conditions are probable
beginning on the 11th.
However a second partially geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejection may throw a
wrench in the gears of my forecast for the 11th. Unfortunately partially
geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejections are tough to forecast as far as impact on
the geomagnetic field.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Good Becoming Fair
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect good then becoming fair "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
*Expect fair then becoming poor domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect fair then becoming good domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good then becoming fair "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
+Expect fair then becoming good domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
*Expect fair then becoming poor conditions on south "TO" north paths in the
"Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair to poor.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair to poor.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/expconus.gif http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/exptropical.gif
During the 72 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low to moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high to moderate" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-15
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as
well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit"
propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from
the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore
the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas
F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights
reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit
is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and
are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Sunday 03/09/08 At 1800 UTC
PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Sunspot Groups- No sunspot groups currently contain twisted magnetic fields
capable of producing very large or huge M and X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 110 108 105
Sunspot Number- 54
X-Ray Solar Flares- C-3 M-0 X-0
X-Ray Solar flare activity continues unusually quiet lately with no M class
flares since 03/08/19 and no X class solar flares since 03/06/15.
Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B2.2
Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None
Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)- One partially
geo-effective Coronal mass Ejection occurred yesterday, tied to a long duration
C5.3 solar flare and filament eruption, in association with sunspot group
#10453.
Recurrent Coronal Hole #55 is now in a geo-effective (Earth facing) as of
03/09/07and should begin impacting the geomagnetic field by later today
03/09/08.
In the past 24 hour period the Ap index has been at unsettled levels, with a
peak of 13.
In the past 24 hour period the Kp index has been at unsettled levels, with a
peak of 3.
Here are some “general” guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude
path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
TODAY’S PROPAGATION LESSON #7 & 8-
7.) Horizontal Propagation Path Skewing- Basically the simplest way to look at
medium frequency signal propagation path skewing is that the transmitted RF
signal will "always" seek to propagate along the path with least absorption,
which almost always means via a darkness path.
As an example a signal transmitted from Norway to New England, which is a polar
great circle path, will be directly absorbed most of the time by the Aurora
Oval, with the remaining medium frequency signal skirting south and then west on
the darkness path, arriving in New England from say the SE rather then the
expected NE path. Also medium frequency skewed propagation paths are the norm
rather then the exception, especially past approximately 3200 miles.
Skewed propagation paths are tied to horizontal or side scatter propagation due
to electron gradient changes in the vicinity of the Aurora Ovals.
8.) Geomagnetic/Ionospheric Storm- A worldwide disturbance of the Earth's
magnetosphere, induced by direct connection to the Sun's interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF), distinct from regular diurnal variations. Basically it's a
precipitation of electrons trapped within our magnetosphere, as the electrons
collide with the Sun's photon. The end result is a reduction of the MUF of the
F2 layer.
((((Note! Unfortunately elevated Kp indices of as little as a 3 will create
absorptive conditions for medium frequency signal propagation on higher
propagation paths)))).
Initial phase of a geomagnetic storm is that period when there may be an
increase of the middle latitude horizontal intensity.
Main phase of a geomagnetic storm is that period when the horizontal magnetic
field at middle latitudes is generally decreasing.
Recovery phase of a geomagnetic storm is that period when the depressed
northward field component returns to normal levels.
By the way effects of the solar wind on the magnetosphere decreases as we
approach the Summer/Winter solstice and increase at the Fall/Spring Equinox.
Why? Basically it's the orientation of Earth's magnetic field with respect to
the Interplanetary Magnetic Field within the Solar Wind. When solar material and
shock waves reach Earth their effects may be enhanced or dampened depending on
the angle at which they arrive.
The Wang-Sheeley Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Model is used to predict
Earth's IMF polarity. When the polarity of the IMF is negative a visible mid
latitude Aurora display is likely, as a Coronal mass Ejection (CME) strikes the
Earth's magnetic field.
72 HOUR PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
We will see continued quiet Kp-<2 to unsettled Kp-3 geomagnetic conditions
through today the 8th. Unfortunately though we can expect a return to active
Kp-4 to minor storm Kp-5 conditions on the 9th, thanks to recurrent Coronal Hole
#55, then possibly moderate geomagnetic storm Kp-6 conditions on the 10th due to
the arrival of the partially geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejection.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Good Becoming Fair
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect good then becoming fair "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
*Expect fair then becoming poor domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect fair then becoming good domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good then becoming fair "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
+Expect fair then becoming good domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
*Expect fair then becoming poor conditions on south "TO" north paths in the
"Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair to poor.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair to poor.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/expconus.gif http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/exptropical.gif
During the 72 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low to moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high to moderate" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-14
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as
well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit"
propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from
the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore
the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas
F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights
reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit
is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and
are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Sunday 03/09/07 At 1500 UTC
PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Sunspot Groups- No sunspot groups currently contain twisted magnetic fields
capable of producing very large or huge M and X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 104 105 105
Sunspot Number- 60
X-Ray Solar Flares- C-0 M-0 X-0
X-Ray Solar flare activity has been unusually quiet lately with no M class
flares since 03/08/19 and no X class solar flares since 03/06/15. However in the
past few minutes a potentially large M or X class X-ray flare has occurred.
Further data is unavailable a this moment.
Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B2.1
Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None
Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)- None
Recurrent Coronal Hole #55 will become geo-effective (Earth facing) on
03/09/06-07 and begin impacting the geomagnetic field by 03/09/08.
In the past 24 hour period the Ap index has been at active levels, with a peak
of 17.
In the past 24 hour period the Kp index has been at unsettled levels, with a
peak of 3.
Here are some “general” guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude
path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
TODAY’S PROPAGATION LESSON #6-
Electron Gyro-frequency Absorption-
Unfortunately medium frequencies fall within and very near the electron
gyro-frequency, which is in the approximate range of 630 to 1630 kHz. Of course
this means that the MF AM broadcast band and 160 meter band is impacted
significantly. There is a direct correlation between the strength of the Earth's
magnetic field lines and electron gyro frequencies.
Basically the electron gyro-frequency is a measure of the interaction between an
electron in the Earth's upper atmosphere and the Earth's magnetic field. The
closer a transmitted medium frequency carrier or sideband wave frequency is to
the electron gyro-frequency, the more energy that is absorbed by the gyro
electrons from that carrier wave frequency. This is especially true for medium
frequency radio signals traveling perpendicular to the Earth's magnetic field,
meaning high latitude NW and NE propagation paths. Unfortunately this form of
medium frequency signal absorption is ALWAYS present.
To see a global map of gyro-frequencies go to this web link:
http://www.kn4lf.com/gyrofrequency.jpg
72 HOUR PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
We will see continued quiet Kp-<2 to unsettled Kp-3 geomagnetic conditions
through the 8th. Unfortunately though we can expect a return to active Kp-4 to
minor storm Kp-5 by conditions on the 9th, thanks to recurrent Coronal Hole #55.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Good
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west
paths.
*Expect fair to good domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the
"Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west
paths.
Expect fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
*Expect fair to good conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/expconus.gif http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/exptropical.gif
During the 72 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low to moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high to moderate" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-13
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as
well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit"
propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from
the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore
the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas
F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights
reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit
is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and
are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Saturday 03/09/06 At 1800 UTC
PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Sunspot Groups- No sunspot groups currently contain twisted magnetic fields
capable of producing very large or huge M and X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 109 108 108
Sunspot Number- 57
X-Ray Solar Flares- C-1 M-0 X-0
Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B3.1
Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None
Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)- None
Recurrent Coronal Hole #054 which became geo-effective on 03/08/28 and began
impacting the geo-magnetic field with active Kp-4 conditions on 03/09/01 at 0622
UTC, ended it’s negative influence on the geomagnetic field.
Recurrent Coronal Hole #55 will become geo-effective (Earth facing) on
03/09/06-07.
In the past 24 hour period the Ap index has been at active levels, with a peak
of 23.
In the past 24 hour period the Kp index has been at active levels, with a peak
of 4.
Here are some “general” guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude
path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
TODAY’S PROPAGATION LESSON #5-
E Valley-F Layer Propagation Ducting Mechanism/Chordal Hop Propagation-
Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul DX
contact. As a medium frequency RF signal traverses our planets magnetic lines of
force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3
land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily
absorbed then lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation
paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e. horizontally polarized
signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W4.
You would expect a true long path QSO on 160 to be theoretically possible but
improbable on most paths during any season. However a G to VK long path might be
possible if the E-valley/F-layer ducting propagation mechanism or the Chordal
Hop propagation mechanism is involved. A 160 meter signal can traverse a
daylight path via these propagation modes if the transmitted signal enters/exits
at each end of the path at or near sunrise/sunset when the D layer ionization is
weak (ionospheric tilting).
The majority of the time medium frequency RF signals in excess of approximately
3200 miles propagate via the E-valley/F-layer propagation mechanism or via the
Chordal Hop (mostly on HF) propagation mechanism. High solar flux values can aid
in long haul medium frequency propagation, as high solar flux values ensure a
strong F-layer half of the E-Valley/F-layer duct mechanism. Typically the
majority of transmit antenna's radiation must be focused under 40 degrees (25-35
deg. being optimum) to enter the E-Valley/F-layer duct and (((((lower angle
vertical polarization is best suited for this))))).
If one is lucky on the receive end of a ducted medium frequency signal, a change
in the vertical and/or horizontal electron gradient will allow the RF to drop
out of the duct at your QTH.
A note, high solar activity in the form of increased ionization created by
ultraviolet and X-ray radiation, can fill in the E-Valley/F-layer ducting region
with medium frequency absorptive ionization and interfere with the E-
Valley/F-layer ducting mechanism. In a sense the E/F layer duct is shut down and
the medium frequency RF signal can only propagate between the E-layer and
land/ocean surface, at a higher angle and with more signal loss. This closing of
the duct can be reciprocal on each end of the propagation path or one way only.
(((((When closing of the duct occurs the advantage of a low angle vertical
radiator is lost, with a higher takeoff angle horizontal dipole making the
contact still possible, albeit maybe weaker.)))))
Medium frequency radio waves possess elliptical polarization, with the signal
splitting into ordinary and extra-ordinary rays. These rays can propagate in or
out of phase, mainly out of phase. The out of phase extra-ordinary ray
represents a 50% power loss on the receive end of a propagation path.
72 HOUR PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
We will see continued periods of unsettled Kp-3 to active Kp-4 geomagnetic
conditions today the 6th, with quiet Kp-<2 to unsettled Kp-3 conditions on the
7-8th. Unfortunately though we can expect a return to active Kp-4 to minor storm
Kp-5 by the 9th, thanks to recurrent Coronal Hole #55.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Fair To Good
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect fair then becoming good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
Expect poor then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect fair then becoming good "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
Expect poor then becoming fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the
"Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming good.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming good.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/expconus.gif http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/exptropical.gif
During the 72 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in
low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter
Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-12
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as
well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit"
propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from
the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore
the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas
F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights
reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit
is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and
are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Friday 03/09/05 At 1500 UTC
PAST 72 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Sunspot Groups- No sunspot groups currently contain twisted magnetic fields
capable of producing very large or huge M and X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 106-112
Sunspot Number- 79-90
X-Ray Solar Flares- C-1 M-0 X-0
Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B2.1-B3.2
Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)-
Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)- None
Recurrent Coronal Hole #054 which became geo-effective on 03/08/28 and began
impacting the geo-magnetic field with active Kp-4 conditions on 03/09/01 at 0622
UTC, should end it’s negative influence within 24 hours.
Recurrent Coronal Hole #55 will become geo-effective (Earth facing) on 03/09/07.
In the past 72 hour period the Ap index has been at quiet to active levels, with
a spread of 4-29.
In the past 72 hour period the Kp index has been at unsettled to active levels,
with a spread of 3-4.
Here are some general guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude
path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
TODAY’S PROPAGATION LESSON #4.-
Correlation Of Energetic Protons, Solar Flux and Ap & Kp Indices With Medium
Frequencies-
I've been observing energetic proton levels, as well as the Ap & Kp indices for
30 years and see a direct correlation between high energetic proton levels above
10 MeV (10+0) and poor propagation on high and at times mid latitude medium
frequency paths at night and day.
High solar flux values are generally considered to be detrimental to
medium-frequency signals both domestic and TA/TI/TP, as more absorption can be
present as the transmitted signal makes two trips through the D layer, near
sunrise and sunset. However most medium wave frequency RF signals in excess of
3100 miles are propagated via the E valley/F layer ducting and/or Chordal Hop
propagation mechanism and a high solar flux value ensures a strong E and F-layer
duct mechanism.
An elevated energetic proton flux level greater then (10+0) on 160 meters and
greater then (10-1) on the medium frequency broadcast band creates noticeably
increased winter time day and year round night time D layer absorption of medium
wave frequencies, especially on high latitude propagation paths but it can also
negatively impact mid latitudes, depending on the intensity of the event.
Elevated energetic proton events too small to be categorized as a Polar Cap
Absorption event (PCA) can still impact high and at times mid latitude medium
frequency propagation paths in the form of excessive D layer absorption.
((((Note, high latitude medium frequency radio propagation paths can still be
disturbed for days and up to weeks, following the end of an official >10 MeV
(10+0) proton event.))))
72 HOUR PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
We will continue to see periods of unsettled Kp-3 to active Kp-4 geomagnetic
conditions, with quiet Kp-<2 to unsettled Kp-3 conditions probable within 24-48
hours. Unfortunately though we can expect a return to active Kp-4 to minor storm
Kp-5 within 72-96 hours, thanks to recurrent Coronal Hole #55.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Poor Becoming Fair
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect fair then becoming good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
Expect poor then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect fair then becoming good "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
Expect poor then becoming fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the
"Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be poor then becoming fair.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be poor then becoming fair.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/expconus.gif http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/exptropical.gif
During the 24 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in
low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter
Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-11
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as
well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit"
propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from
the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore
the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas
F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights
reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit
is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and
are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Monday 03/09/01 At 1700 UTC
PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Sunspot Groups- No sunspot groups current contain twisted magnetic fields
capable of producing very large or huge M and X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 111 110 108
Sunspot Number- 101
X-Ray Solar Flares- C-1 M-0 X-0
Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B2.4
Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None
Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)- None
Coronal Hole #054 which became geo-effective on 03/08/28 will began impacting
the geo-magnetic field with active Kp-4 conditions on 03/09/01 at 0622 UTC.
In the past 24 hour period the Ap index has been at unsettled levels, with a
peak at 14.
In the past 24 hour period the Kp index has been at active levels, with a peak
at 4.
Here are some general guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude
path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
TODAY’S PROPAGATION LESSON-
3.) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)- A Coronal Mass Ejection is the name given to an
ejection of a large amount of matter from the Sun's outer atmosphere or corona.
These ejections typically comprise millions of tons of material in the form of
charged particles, and can be seen because the material reflects sunlight. When
one of these ejections is directed towards the Earth (or conversely, directly
away from the Earth), it looks like a roughly circular "halo" surrounding the
Sun.
The "Halo CME's" then are those CME's which are more likely to impact the Earth
than those which are shot out at right angles to the Earth-Sun line. Energetic
protons emitted during CME's play a major role in increased day time and
night-time D-layer absorption of medium frequencies.
Coronal Mass Ejections were once thought to be completely initiated by solar
flares. However it is now known that many (CME's) are not associated with Solar
Flares. If a (CME) collides with the Earth, it can excite a Geomagnetic Storm if
the polarity of the IMF has a negative sign. We must be vigilant in watching for
geo-effective (CME's), in order to not be caught by surprise with a seemingly
sudden and unexpected Geomagnetic Storm.
PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
We should see periods of active Kp-4 to minor storm Kp-5 geomagnetic conditions,
with some moderate storm Kp-6 conditions possible.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Fair Becoming Poor
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect fair then becoming poor "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
Expect fair then becoming poor domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect fair then becoming good domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect fair then becoming poor "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
Expect fair then becoming good domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
Expect fair then becoming poor conditions on south "TO" north paths in the
"Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming poor.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming poor.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/expconus.gif http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/exptropical.gif
During the 24 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in
low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter
Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-10
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as
well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit"
propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from
the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore
the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2003 by Thomas
F. Giella and the Florida Space And Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights
reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit
is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and
are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Sunday 03/08/31 At 1800 UTC
PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Sunspot Groups- No sunspot groups current contain twisted magnetic fields
capable of producing very large or huge M and X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 116 114 114
Sunspot Number- 120
X-Ray Solar Flares- C-2 M-0 X-0
Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B2.8
Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None
Coronal Hole #054 which became geo-effective on 03/08/28 will begin impacting
the geo-magnetic field with minor storm conditions Kp-5 by 03/09/01-02.
In the past 24 hour period the Ap index has been at minor storm levels, with a
peak at 37.
In the past 24 hour period the Kp index has been at minor storm levels, with a
peak at 5. The short lived minor storm level was due to the lopsided partially
geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejection that was hurled into space on 03/08/25.
Here are some general guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude
path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
TODAY'S PROPAGATION LESSON-
2.) Aurora Oval Blockage, Absorption And Refraction- The aurora ovals
"generally" have a negative impact on high and medium-frequency propagation. If
the path over which you are communicating lies along or inside one of the Aurora
Ovals, you will experience degraded propagation in one of several different
forms; strong signal absorption, brief periods of strong signal enhancement,
which is mainly caused by tilts in the ionosphere that allow signals to become
focused at your location or very erratic signal behavior in the form of strong
and rapid fading, etc., caused by a variety of effects such as multi-pathing,
anomalous and rapid variations in absorption, non-great-circle propagation,
horizontal or side refraction and/or scatter (skewing) due to changes in
electron density and polarization changes. When the Aurora Oval zones are
contracted and latitudinally-thin coinciding with low geomagnetic activity, it
is possible for a high and medium-frequency transmitted signal to propagate
through the Aurora Oval zone without being heavily absorbed by skirting
underneath it.
During long periods of very low geomagnetic activity, areas of
the Aurora Oval zones may only have a latitudinal thickness of approximately 300
miles. But radio signals reflected from the E-layer can travel over distances of
as much as 300 to 1100 miles at heights below the ionosphere for low take-off
angles of between 10 and 25 degrees. When the geometry is just right, the high
and medium-frequency transmitted signal can literally propagate underneath and
through the Aurora Oval zones into the polar ionosphere which is less disturbed
and from the polar ionosphere back into the middle latitude ionosphere, without
ever coming in contact with the highly absorptive Aurora Ionosphere. This type
of propagation is not as rare as you might think and it can provide unusually
stable polar region path openings to (TA) Transatlantic and (TP) Transpacific
regions. But because the Aurora Oval zone expands and contracts constantly, such
conditions often do not last very long.
PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
We should continue to see periods of quiet Kp-2 to unsettled Kp-3 geomagnetic
conditions, with some minor storm Kp-5 to moderate storm Kp-6 conditions
probable beginning on 03/09/01-02.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Fair Becoming Poor
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect good but becoming fair "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
Expect fair then becoming poor domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect fair then becoming good domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good but then becoming fair "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
Expect fair then becoming good domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
Expect fair then becoming poor conditions on south "TO" north paths in the
"Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming poor.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming poor.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/expconus.gif http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/exptropical.gif
During the 24 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in
low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter
Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
F.) Remember though that there are daily extremes of the Background X-ray flux level. So even though the daily average might have been good at say B2.2, the daily "extreme" maximum could have been C1.5, which would have been bad and have cause a short period of increased D layer absorption.
G.) Though high latitude propagation paths on the day light side of the Earth are primarily affected, night time high latitude paths can also be impacted by higher intensity energetic proton events. This fact is still stubbornly opposed by some otherwise very knowledgeable space weather physicists hung up on high latitude threshold Riometer data tied to Polar Cap Absorption (PCA).
H.) Another wrench in the gears
preventing consistent good propagation on medium frequencies is related to
Sporadic-D (Ds) absorption. Sporadic-D (Ds) occurrences have an
inter-relationship with brief but intense Sun based and Galactic Cosmic Rays,
huge positive cloud to ground lightning strokes and interrelated Sprites and
Elves. Very large bursts of Gamma Rays have also been observed to occur in
conjunction with Sprites.
I.) Also there is another unavoidable problem, Magneto Ionic Power Coupling.
Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul DX
contact. As a medium frequency RF signal traverses our planets magnetic lines of
force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3
land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily
absorbed then lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation
paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e. horizontally polarized
signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W4. Magneto
Ionic Power Coupling expert Bob Brown NM7M has a good educational thread on this
propagation bugaboo on the May 2002 Topband Reflector.
J.) Meteorological effects such as troposphere originating Internal Buoyancy/Gravity Waves (IBGW), stratospheric level Quasi-Biennial Oscillations (QBO) and stratospheric warming (See definition #16 on Stratospheric Warming) have a negative effect on MF RF signals in the form of small to medium increased absorption variations of MF RF signals via the D layer. Also temperature and moisture discontinuities (frontal inversions) can refract/scatter MF radio signals in unpredictable ways, most notably on high transmitted RF power levels.
K.) The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a wind shift in the equatorial stratosphere, an oscillation from easterly to westerly and back on the time scale of approximately two years (26 months) and is a source of internal gravity waves (IGW) which create absorptive perturbations in the D and E layers and even possibly the F-1&2 layers.
L.) The HAARP Ionospheric program, Thunderstorms, lightning (especially positive cloud
to ground strokes), sprites, tornadoes, hurricanes and even man made activities
such as rocket launches including the space shuttle, are all sources of (IBGW's).
Many times I've heard ham's lament that propagation was going to go to crap due
to another space shuttle launch, in a sense they are correct. Much more research is needed on
MF and LF radio wave propagation.
PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
We should continue to see periods of unsettled Kp-3 to active Kp-4 geomagnetic
conditions, with some minor storm Kp-5 to moderate storm Kp-6 conditions
probable beginning on 03/09/01.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Good Becoming Fair To Poor
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect good but becoming fair "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
Expect fair then becoming poor domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect fair then becoming good domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good but then becoming fair "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation
conditions on east-west paths.
Expect fair then becoming good domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
Expect fair then becoming poor conditions on south "TO" north paths in the
"Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming poor.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming poor.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/expconus.gif
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd/graf/exptropical.gif
During the 24 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in
low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter
Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-08
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Friday 03/08/29 At 1800 UTC
PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Solar Flux Readings- 118 119 118
Sunspot Number- 146
X-Ray Solar Flares- C-3 M-0 X-0
Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B3.4
Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None
Coronal Hole #054 which became geo-effective on 03/08/28 may impact the
geo-magnetic field with minor storm conditions Kp-5 by 03/08/30-31.
In the past 24 hour period the Ap index has been at active levels, with a peak
at 28.
In the past 24 hour period the Kp index has been at active levels, with a peak
at 4.
For the balance of this week we should see periods of unsettled Kp-3 to active
Kp-4 geomagnetic conditions, with some minor storm Kp-5 conditions possible
towards the end of the week.
Here are some general guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude
path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
MF Propagation Overview-
a.) Medium frequencies encompass 300 to 3000 kc. The simplest way to look at
medium frequencies with respect to propagation issues from a layman's point of
view, is to accept the fact propagation is poor the majority of the time,
especially past approximately 1100 miles (one refraction off of the E-layer),
with occasional short-lived good periods as far as 3200 miles.
Medium frequency radio waves possess elliptical polarization, with the signal
splitting into ordinary and extra-ordinary rays. These rays can propagate in or
out of phase, mainly out of phase. The out of phase extra-ordinary ray
represents a 50% power loss on the receive end of a propagation path.
b.) Why? D-layer absorption! At daytime the D-layer, which is at an approximate
height of 30-60 miles in the mesosphere, totally absorbs medium frequency RF
signals most of the time. I say most of the time because at high latitudes,
during the winter season and especially at the low part of a sunspot cycle,
penetration of RF signals through the weakened D-layer and then refraction via
the E-layer does occur. However a fly-in-the-ointment is the fact that the
D-layer does not totally disappear at night. Many books that deal with radio
wave propagation erroneously state that the D and E-layers disappear after
sunset, totally incorrect thanks to Galactic Cosmic Rays.
c.) Background electromagnetic radiation in the 1 to 10 Angstrom range (Hard
X-Rays) is the main source of ionization of the day time D-layer, with our Sun
as the source of Cosmic Rays, also playing a role. While I'm visiting the
subject of electromagnetic radiation, our Sun emits electromagnetic radiation
and matter, as a result of the nuclear fusion process. Electromagnetic radiation
at wavelengths of 100 to 1000 Angstroms (Ultraviolet) ionizes the F region,
radiation at 10 to 100 Angstroms (Soft X-rays), as well as Cosmic Rays ionize
the E region. Galactic Cosmic Rays are the reason that the E-layer is "always"
present at night time, the D-layer also. Cosmic rays are not rays at all, but
particles. They are ionized atoms, atoms with missing electrons ranging from a
single proton up to an iron nucleus and beyond but typically protons and alpha
particles, which have 2 protons and 2 neutrons. They originate from deep space,
being produced by a number of different sources, such as other stars, and more
exotic objects, such as supernova, which are exploding stars and their remnants,
neutron stars, black holes, and distant galaxies. Cosmic Ray particles travel
very close to the speed of light, and are highly energetic.
d.) Recently I saw a post on the Topband Reflector E-List, lamenting the
seemingly unexplainable differences in 160 propagation on certain paths from
night-to-night. A reasonable explanation? Yes, unfortunately small increases in
the density of the night time D-layer over short periods of time, caused by
smaller solar flares and also the general variability of the solar background
X-Ray flux level, can have a profound negative impact on propagation in the form
of increased absorption of high and even mid-latitude medium-frequency signal
paths, both on the MF broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters. Why? It only takes 10
electron volts (ev) of energy to ionize the atmosphere and 1-10 Angstrom X-ray
photons energize the atmosphere at a factor of 100. This translates into D layer
absorption of medium frequency signals. The lower half of the MF broadcast is
always affected first followed by the upper half of the AM broadcast band, then
160 and 120 meters. If you learn nothing else on this website, remember this
simple explanation and pass the word.
To be continued.
PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-
We should continue to see periods of unsettled Kp-3 to active Kp-4 geomagnetic
conditions, with some minor storm Kp-5 conditions possible towards the end of
the weekend.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Fair To Good
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect fair to good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on
east-west paths.
Expect poor to fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the
"Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good to fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the
"Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west
paths.
Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
Expect fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere"
out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be poor to fair.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd
During the 24 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in
low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter
Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-07
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Thursday 03/08/28 At 1400 UTC
PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
Solar Flux Readings- 124 126 124
Sunspot Number- 116
X-Ray Solar Flares- C-4 M-0 X-0
Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B3.8
Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+0)- None
Coronal Hole #053 is now in a partially geo-effective (Earth facing) position as
of 03/08/27 and is impacting the geo-magnetic field with a Kp of 3 unsettled to
4 active.
Coronal Hole #054 will become geo-effective on 03/08/28 and may impact the
geo-magnetic field with minor storm conditions Kp-5 by 03/08/30.
For the balance of this week we should see periods of unsettled Kp-3 to active
Kp-4 geomagnetic conditions, with some minor storm Kp-5 conditions possible
towards the end of the week.
In the past 24 hour period the Ap index has been at active levels, with a peak
at 23.
In the past 24 hour period the Kp index has been at active levels, with a peak
at 4.
For the balance of this week we should see periods of unsettled Kp-3 to active
Kp-4 geomagnetic conditions, with some minor storm Kp-5 conditions possible
towards the end of the week.
Here are some general guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude
path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
As we approach the Fall/Winter Equinox propagation conditions become more
balanced as the number of hours of sunlight and darkness are equal in both
hemispheres.
Also the negative affect of the solar wind on the magnetosphere increases as we
approach the Fall/Spring Equinox. Why? Basically it's the orientation of Earth's
magnetic field with respect to the Interplanetary Magnetic Field within the
Solar Wind. When solar material and shock waves reach Earth their effects may be
enhanced or dampened depending on the angle at which they arrive.
As we move towards Southern Hemisphere Summer, critical frequencies will be
lower with skip distances longer. This means that the highest bands will not be
open as often but the higher bands will stay open longer into the evening hours.
As we move towards Northern Hemisphere Winter, critical frequencies will be
higher with skip distances shorter. This means that the highest bands will be
open more often but the higher bands will close sooner during the evening hours.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Fair To Good
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect fair to good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on
east-west paths.
Expect poor to fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the
"Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good to fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the
"Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west
paths.
Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
Expect fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere"
out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be poor to fair.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd
During the 24 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in
low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter
Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
Here are some
general guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices to actual
expected propagation conditions.
Here are some general guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices
to actual expected propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, except for solar flux on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best
for E layer multi hop. Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar
flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the
energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times.
2a.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above 200
best for F layer multi hop.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively
is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) positive sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude
path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Good To Fair
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect fair to good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on
east-west paths.
Expect poor to fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the
"Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good to fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the
"Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on
east-west paths.
Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
Expect fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere"
out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans
Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess
of approximately 3200 miles should be poor to fair.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans
Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess
of approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be good.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans
Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately
3200 miles should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd
During the 24 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity
of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
induced QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning
induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-17 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-05
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is YY/MM/DD
Published Tuesday 03/08/26 At 1400 UTC
PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES-
The influence of Coronal Hole #052 on the geo-magnetic field continues to weaken
and should end within 24 hours. It does continue to produce an elevated Kp
index, which was a 4 (active) at 1200 UTC today.
It appears that Coronal Hole #053 located in the Sun's southern hemisphere may
now become geo-effective (Earth facing) by 03/08/28 and may impact the
geo-magnetic field with a Kp of 4-5 (active to minor storm).
Coronal Hole #54 is just now making it’s appearance around the eastern limb of
our Sun and is still days away from becoming geo-effective.
For the balance of this week we should see periods of unsettled Kp-3 to active
Kp-4 geomagnetic conditions.
The filament loop eruption that occurred on 03/08/25 at 0250 UTC from sunspot
group #10442 in association with a long duration C3.6 flare, did hurl a lopsided
partially geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejection into space. Renewed strong to
severe geo-magnetic conditions are not expected.
In the past 24 hour period the Ap index has been at minor geomagnetic storm
levels, with a peak at 48.
A previous 24 hour Ap index under 10 is good, under 5 for 72 hours consecutively
is best for good high and latitude MF propagation conditions.
In the past 24 hour period the Kp index has been at minor geomagnetic levels,
with a peak at 5.
A previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 is good for mid latitude paths, under 2 for
high latitude paths, 0-1 for 72 hours consecutively is best.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude- Good
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Expect fair to good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on
east-west paths.
Expect poor to fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the
"Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in
the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Expect fair to good "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on
east-west paths.
Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in
the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+
Expect poor to fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern
Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.
"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be good.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd
During the 24 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in
low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter
Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced
QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN
tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
