2004 KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook Archive

Unfortunately personal health issues have once again reared their ugly head and have prevented me from resuming my daily HF/MF radio propagation outlook in early May 2004 as planned. I'm now using software that allows me to speak and produce text without typing on a keyboard. I still plan on resuming the outlooks but am going to wait until late Summer 2004, after I get proficient using the software, which is a very slow and awkward procedure. In the meantime check out my KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather and Geomagnetic Data Archive website at http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm .

Sunday 05/02/04 At 11:00 am EDT

For quite a number of years I produced a weekly HF/MF radio propagation outlook. Unfortunately I had to terminate it during the December of 2003 due to personal illness. My health is improving and I have fully retired from business e-commerce website design and space and atmospheric weather consulting. Therefore I now have the free time to begin producing the "KN4LF DAILY HF/MF Frequency Radio Propagation Outlook" once again.

This web based propagation outlook was terminated in fall 2003 as I can no longer type on a computer keyboard in a proficient manner due to personal illness.

We have seen only three small C class solar flares in the past nine days.
With a virtually spotless Sun we have also seen the daily solar flux fall
into the upper 80's range and the background x-ray solar flux fall into the
A range. This all adds up to some pretty good MF/160 meter propagation
conditions the past few days and the good conditions should last into the
weekend. However occasional unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions may
block, scatter or partially absorb signals on high latitude propagation
paths at times.

As I've monitored MF band conditions the past few nights I've observed some
of the strongest north to south, east-west and west-east received signal
strengths of this dismal DX season. I've also seen high angle local and
regional propagation disappear at frequencies as low as 1845 kc, as the
critical frequency has dropped that low.

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
EL87WX

Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit" propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public
by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space and Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.


73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
EL87WX

Sorry for the five day delay in publishing the next outlook as I caught my first influenza of the season.

GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS FOR 01/11-13/2004-

I expect to see quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (Kp-2-4) on 01/11/04, with isolated periods off minor geomagnetic storming (Kp-5) through 01/13/04.

The geomagnetic activity will be in association with the high velocity solar stream associated with geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole #075 and any incoming partially geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejections (CME).

-Expect fair to good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths.

*Expect poor to fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.

+Expect good to fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.

-Expect fair "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths.

+Expect fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.

*Expect poor conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.

Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be fair to good.

"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be poor to fair.

"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be poor.

"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair to good.

"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming fair.

"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good.

"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair.

Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.

Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be poor to fair.

Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair to good.

Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be poor to fair.

Propagation Forecast Scales-

Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3

GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-

U.S. LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)

Sorry but global views of near real time lightning strikes are no longer available.

http://www.lightningstorm.com/tux/jsp/gpg/lex1/mapdisplay_free.jsp;jsessionid=70301187101071113657379

During the 72 hour outlook period there will be "moderate lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "low to moderate" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "very low to low" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "high" lightning induced QRN, tied to summer season thunderstorms and tropical cyclones.

Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR 01/02-09/2004-

Sunspot Groups-

#10536 at S12W28 currently contains a beta-gamma-delta twisted magnetic field capable of producing large M class and isolated huge X class solar flares.

#10537 at N05E37 currently contains a beta-gamma-delta twisted magnetic field capable of producing large M class and isolated huge X class solar flares.

Unfortunately though even small C class solar flares can impact MF propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Solar Flux Readings- 116 to 125

SEC Sunspot Number- 51 to 118

X-Ray Solar Flares- C-29 M-8 X-0

Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B2.3 to C1.4

Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+o)- None

Geo or partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 4

Recurrent Coronal Hole #074 which became geoeffective beginning on 01/01/04, finally lost it’s negative impact on Earth’s magnetic field on UTC 01/06/04.

The Ap index has been at quiet to major storm levels, with a range of 5 to 59.

The Kp index has been at quiet to minor storm levels, with a range of 1 to 5.

The solar wind speed has ranged between 442 and 890.

Here are some "general" guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices to actual expected MF propagation conditions.

1.) Dropping indices numbers are better.

2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best for E layer multi hop.

Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most are used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a hard habit to break. A better indicator is the background x-ray flux. See #7.

3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days
consecutively is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for
high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and
no greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for 160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band but A9 or less is best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.

A Coronal Mass Ejection is the name given to an ejection of a large amount of matter from the Sun's outer atmosphere or corona. These ejections typically comprise millions of tons of material in the form of charged particles, and can be seen because the material reflects sunlight. When one of these ejections is directed towards the Earth (or conversely, directly away from the Earth), it looks like a roughly circular "halo" surrounding the Sun.

The "Halo CME's" then are those CME's which are more likely to impact the Earth than those which are shot out at right angles to the Earth-Sun line. Energetic protons emitted during CME's play a major role in increased day time and night-time D-layer absorption of medium frequencies.

Coronal Mass Ejections were once thought to be completely initiated by solar flares. However it is now known that many (CME's) are not associated with Solar Flares. If a (CME) collides with the Earth, it can excite a Geomagnetic Storm if the polarity of the IMF has a negative sign. We must be vigilant in watching for geo-effective (CME's), in order to not be caught by surprise with a seemingly sudden and unexpected Geomagnetic Storm.

Space Weather Scales-

Kp Indices-

G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3

Ap Indices-

Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet

Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-

K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit" propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public
by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella and the Florida Space and Atmospheric Weather Institute, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
EL87WX

GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS FOR 01/03-05/2004-

I expect a to see a Kp of 2-3 (active-unsettled) on 01/03/04, increasing to a Kp of 4-6 between 01/04-05/04, thanks to the velocity solar stream associated with recurring geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole #74.

As CH #071 on 11/08-15/03 it produced a peak Kp of 6 (major geomagnetic storm) and an Ap of 69 (major geomagnetic storm).

Expect good then becoming fair "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths.

*Expect fair then becoming poor domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.

+Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.

Expect poor "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths.

+Expect fair then becoming poor domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.

*Expect poor conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.

"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming poor.

"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be poor.

"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good then becoming fair.

"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming poor.

Propagation Forecast Scales-

Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3

GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-

U.S. LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)

Sorry but global views of near real time lightning strikes are no longer available.
http://www.lightningstorm.com/tux/jsp/gpg/lex1/mapdisplay_free.jsp;jsessionid=70301187101071113657379

During the 72 hour outlook period there will be "moderate lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts
and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "very low" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR 01/01/2004-

Sunspot Groups- #10536 currently rotating into view around the Sun’s east limb contains a beta-gamma twisted magnetic field capable of producing small C class and large M class solar flares.

Unfortunately even small C class solar flares can impact MF propagation conditions in a negative manner.

Solar Flux Readings- 115 166 117

SEC Sunspot Number- 47

X-Ray Solar Flares- C-14 M-0 X-0

Averaged Background X-Ray Flux- B7.5

Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV (10+o)- None.

Geo-effective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0

Recurrent Coronal Hole #073 which became geoeffective beginning on 12/28/03, should finally lose it’s negative impact on Earth’s magnetic field on UTC 01/03/03.

The Ap index has been at active to minor storm levels, with a range of 16 to 48.

The Kp index has been at unsettled to minor storm levels, with a range of 3 to 5.

The solar wind speed has ranged between 526 and 597.

Here are some "general" guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.

1.) Dropping indices numbers are better.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best for E layer multi hop.

Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most are used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a hard habit to break. A better indicator is the background x-ray flux. See #7

3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days
consecutively is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for
high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and
no greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for 160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band but A9 or less is best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.

TODAY'S PROPAGATION LESSON -

#2.) Aurora Oval Blockage, Absorption and Refraction-

The aurora ovals "generally" have a negative impact on medium and high frequency propagation. If the path over which you are communicating lies along or inside one of the Aurora Ovals, you will experience degraded propagation in one of several different forms; strong signal absorption, brief periods of strong signal enhancement, which is mainly caused by tilts in the ionosphere that allow signals to become focused at your location or very erratic signal behavior in the form of strong and rapid fading, etc., caused by a variety of effects such as multi-pathing, anomalous and rapid variations in absorption, non-great-circle propagation, horizontal or side refraction and/or scatter (skewing) due to changes in electron density and polarization changes.

When the Aurora Oval zones are contracted and latitudinally-thin coinciding with low geomagnetic activity, it is possible for a medium and high frequency transmitted signal to propagate through the Aurora Oval zone without being heavily absorbed by skirting underneath it.

During periods of very low geomagnetic activity, areas of the Aurora Oval zones may only have a latitudinal thickness of approximately 300 miles. But radio signals reflected from the E-layer can travel over distances of as much as 300 to 1250 miles at heights below the ionosphere for low take-off angles of between 10 and 25 degrees. When the geometry is just right, the medium and high frequency transmitted signal can literally propagate underneath and through the Aurora Oval zones into the polar ionosphere which is less disturbed and from the polar ionosphere back into the middle latitude ionosphere, without ever coming in contact with the highly absorptive Aurora Ionosphere. This type of propagation is not as rare as you might think and it can provide unusually stable polar region path openings to (TA) Transatlantic and (TP) Transpacific regions. But because the Aurora Oval zone expands and contracts constantly, such conditions often do not last very long.

Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. Government organizations, to produce my "not for profit" propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2004 by Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.

Space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.