THOMAS F. GIELLA NZ4O
THE FACE BEHIND THE PROPAGATION FORECASTS

In my personal opinion understanding and taking advantage of LF/MF/HF/VHF radio propagation conditions is an integral part of successful DX operation, whether it be as an amateur radio operator or SWL and can really fatten up your DX totals!  Unfortunately the new Technician, General and Extra Class exam's together only ask a total of nine questions about radio wave propagation. To offset that disparity I have created this website conglomeration.

This propagation website is one of the oldest in existence on the WWW dating back to 1997. Here you will also find links to my Daily LF/MF/HF/6M Frequency Radiowave Propagation Forecast, 160 Meter Radio Propagation Theory Notes and LF/MF/HF/VHF/UHF Frequency Radiowave Propagation Email Reflector. You will also find daily solar, space weather and geomagnetic data archived back to 2001.

I am the only amateur radio operator (or professional for that matter) on the planet that produces a daily LF/MF/HF/6M frequency radiowave propagation forecast. I am also the only amateur radio operator on the planet that has produced a forecast for new solar cycle 24.

Newest published on November 02, 2010, a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) peak of 95 in December 2013.

Previous forecasts:

March 30, 2009 a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) peak of 100 in July 2013.

February 1, 2008 a smoothed sunspot number (SSN) peak of 105 in October 2012.

This website does not have the best looking eye candy on the WWW, as I write the html code from memory instead of using software such as Microsoft Front Page. However it's probably unique in that it covers all aspects of the science. I hope that you find this site both useful and educational.

I found a dusty old book from the 1800's and now I think that I know everything about space plasma physics, solar, space and geomagnetic weather, also radiowave propagation.

Radio wave propagation study is one of the few areas that amateur radio operators (antennas also) can still contribute to the art of radio. Commercial interests no longer conduct any research nor does academia. Uncle Sam still does but their research findings will not be available to the public for many years to come.

I am a corresponding member of the Propagation Studies Committee of the Radio Society Of Great Britain. It is comprised of a global group of very knowledgeable people in all aspects of solar, space weather, geomagnetic and radiowave propagation. You can surf their web page at http://www.keele.ac.uk/depts/por/psc.htm .

You can contact me
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA at

nz4o at arrl dot net



Your comments on this website would be much appreciated

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GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF/HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS

NOTE!!! The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2011 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

1.) Dropping geomagnetic indices numbers are better.

2.) A solar flux of 150 or higher, 200+ best, for medium frequencies under 100, under 70 best.

3.) A solar flux in the mid 100's for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days consecutively is best.

5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background X-Ray flux levels less than A1 for several days consecutively.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path Aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -20 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a Geomagnetic Storm, as related to the Equatorial Ring Current. A positive number best.

11.) Rising Positive T Index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

G4ILO has written a piece of propagation prediction software called VOAProp. It is actually an interface for the very accurate but otherwise difficult to use VOACAP software written by the Voice Of America and honed to near perfection over many decades. After you download VOAProp you then download VOACAP and the two pieces of software work together in a seamless fashion. When you unzip the VOACAP file called itshfbc allow it to install on your C:\ drive directly, not into the "Programs Files" folder. The software covers 1.8-30 mc and the 120-11 meter shortwave bands. BTW both pieces of software are free. The software produces a pretty accurate propagation forecast and I always have the software running while operating the MF/HF bands.

CLICK HERE FOR SOLAR, SPACE,
& GEOMAGNETIC WX DATA DASHBOARD

Stanford University Side Image Of Sun

NOAA/SWPC A1 Or Greater Background X-Ray Flux Creates Increased D Layer RF Signal Absorption On The MF AM Broadcast Band, 160 And 120 Meters A0 For Several Days Is Best

SOLAR CYCLE 24 FORECAST DISCUSSION & ARCHIVE