NZ4O DAILY LF/MF/HF/6M FREQUENCY RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #2010-02

“A Radiowave Propagation Forecast For Hams And Shortwave Listeners”

Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY

Published on Friday 01/08/2010 at 1400 UTC

Valid 0000 UTC Saturday 01/09/2010 through 2359 UTC Friday 01/15/2010

CONTEST INFORMATION-

Twelve contests are scheduled for the weekend of Saturday-Sunday 01/09-10/2010:

As a contester my personal favorite(s) is/are:

PODXS 070 Club PSKFest

Mongolian RTTY DX Contest

For more information on contests worldwide check out the WA7BNM website at http://www.hornucopia.com/contestcal/weeklycont.php and the SM3CER Contest Service website at http://www.sk3bg.se/contest . Here is an interesting website about contesting in general. It's called the Contesting Compendium http://wiki.contesting.com/index.php/Main_Page . Last but not least is the ARRL Contest Branch at http://www.arrl.org/contests .

GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH EMPHASIS ON LF AM BROADCAST BAND-

There exists a long distance “daytime” propagation medium between approximately 30-100 kc. The transmitted signal wave guides between the D layer and the surface of the Earth.

Some daytime sky wave propagation also occurs between approximately 100-300 kc via the E layer, especially at higher latitudes in the winter time and at the bottom of a solar cycle.

Reception is tied to the density of the D layer, as well as the E layer at radio Aurora altitude. Geomagnetic storming will suppress night time reception of signals but enhance day time reception of signals. High power broadcasters are more readily heard than low power ham radio signals. Therefore often times the propagation forecast for the high power broadcasters will be better than for ham's.

The forecast is for night time only.

Propagation Forecast Scale-

GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON 600 METERS, THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-

Magnetic Equator-

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi /5200 km

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Propagation Forecast Scale-

GLOBAL F/F2 LAYER HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Lower frequency HF (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic storms that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels and proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to geomagnetic storms. D layer signal absorption due to elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) and elevated background solar flux levels, is usually but not always inconsequential on 20-10 meters.

As follows are examples of how to apply the propagation forecast to your location (QTH).

(1) If you live in Tampa, FL, USA and want to work into Salt Lake City, UT, USA which is an approximate 2000 Mi / 3200 km distance, the forecast is for good propagation conditions.

(1) If you live in London, England and want to work into Moscow, Russia which is an approximate 2000 Mi / 3200 km distance, the forecast is for good propagation conditions.

(2) If you live in New York City, NY and want to work into London, England which is an approximate 4000 Mi / 6500 km distance, the forecast is for good propagation conditions.

(2) If you live in Moscow, Russia and want to work into Perth, Australia which is an approximate 8000 Mi / 1300 km distance the forecast is for good propagation conditions.

As far as band openings:

Short 100-300 miles, medium 300-1000 miles, long greater than 1000 to 4000 miles.

160 meters is open at day time out to short distances and medium to long distances at night time, best in winter.

80 and 60 meters are open at day time out to short and medium distances and long distances at night time, best in winter.

40 and 30 meters are open at day time out to short and medium distances and long distances at night time in summer, closed in winter.

20 and 17 meters are open at day time out to medium to long distances in winter, also long distances at night time during solar maximum, closed at solar minimum and in winter night time.

15, 12 and 10 meters are open at day time out to short to medium distances in summer due to Es propagation, medium to long distances in winter, also medium to long distances at night time during solar maximum, closed at solar minimum and in winter night time.

6 meters is open at day time out to short and medium distances in summer via Es propagation, medium to long distances via F2 propagation at the peak of some solar cycles. Other propagation modes such as direct wave, Aurora E, troposphere ducting, meteor scatter and trans-equatorial propagation can occur at any time, day, season and year.

Magnetic Equator-

FORECASTED GLOBAL HF CONDITIONS-

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE ALL HF BANDS-

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-

80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian and cross Equatorial propagation conditions

greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave broadcast

(TP) North America Via Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial to Oceania/Australia/New Zealand propagation conditions

greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

Note!!! At times propagation conditions on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave will be FAIR to GOOD, via the less predictable Sporadic E (Es) and trans-equatorial (TE) propagation modes which involve the F2/3 layer.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE-

80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

Note!!! At times propagation conditions on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave will be FAIR to GOOD, via the less predictable Sporadic E (Es) and trans-equatorial (TE) propagation modes which involve the F2/3 layer.

Propagation Forecast Scale-

GLOBAL HF 50-54 MC (6 METER) PROPAGATION MODES AND STRENGTHS EXPECTED FORECAST-

For more information about meteor shower events check out http://stardate.org/nightsky/meteors .

Propagation Forecast Scale-

For global real time information concerning 6 meter band openings check out the VHFDX website at:

http://www.vhfdx.net/spots/map.php?Frec=MUF

A good source of information concerning 6 meter band openings via troposphere ducting in the U.S. is at:

http://www.dxinfocentre.com/tropo.html

GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-

U.S. near real time lightning strike data:

http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html

A global view of near real time lightning strike data:

http://webflash.ess.washington.edu  

Northern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season proximity to the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect MODERATE thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems, also tropical warm core low pressure systems .

Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect LOW thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect HIGH TO VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
 
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Lightning QRN will hamper receive conditions on 160/120, 80/75 and 60/60 meters in the northern hemisphere.

Lightning QRN will hamper receive conditions on 160/120, 80/75, 60/60, 40/41, 30/31 and 20/22 meters in the southern hemisphere.

Lightning Induced Noise (QRN) Forecast Scale-

SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

New northern hemisphere Coronal Hole #388 will become geo-effective (Earth directed) and the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it will be >400 m/s and the negative impact to propagation conditions minor (Kp-3).

Formation of a new geo-effective (Earth facing) coronal hole is possible during the forecast period but is nearly impossible to forecast.

Globally with the daily sunspot number as high as 22 and loosely related solar flux level as high as 84; increased F layer MUFs will positively impact 20 and 17 meters.

There will be Sporadic E (Es) propagation openings on 6-80 meters.

In the northern hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUFs, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 17 and 15 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 12 and 10 meters.

In the southern hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore lower MUFs, there will be little east-west F layer propagation on 10, 12 and 15, meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.

Recurrent solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11040 (old #11038) located near N28E59 contains a beta twisted magnetic signature capable of producing very small B class solar flares and an isolated small C class solar flare.

Formation of a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group is possible during the forecast period but is difficult to forecast. One tip off is a rising background solar flux level.

The following recurrent sunspot group(s) may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if it/they survived the back side transit- NONE.

Transequatorial (TE) HF propagation will occur during the local afternoon and evening period along an approximate 2500 miles path either side of the magnetic equator between North and South America will occur, as well between Africa and Europe/West Asia and also Australia and Eastern Asia/Oceania.

Due to an elevated background solar flux level greater than A0 there will be minor signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high, mid and low latitude propagation paths in the northern hemisphere.  The minor absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

Due to an elevated background solar flux level greater than A0 there will be moderate signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high, mid and low latitude propagation paths in the southern hemisphere. The moderate absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

Due to an elevated background solar flux level greater than A0 there will be minor signal absorption on the LF band on high, mid and low latitude paths in the northern hemisphere. The minor absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

Due to an elevated background solar flux level greater than A0 there will be moderate signal absorption on the LF band on high, mid and low latitude propagation paths in the southern hemisphere. The moderate absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

Note the following Kp forecast is produced by NZ4O not NOAA/SWPC.

The following planetary (Kp) geomagnetic conditions are forecasted:

01/09-15/2010- Kp 0-2, isolated 3.

 Kp Indices-

During the period quiet (Kp 0, 1, 2) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.

During the period unsettled (Kp- 3) geomagnetic conditions MAY OCCUR.

During the period active (Kp- 4) geomagnetic conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period minor (Kp- 5) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period moderate (Kp- 6) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period strong (Kp- 7) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period severe (Kp- 8) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period extreme (Kp- 9) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is LOW.

The chance of a daylight side sudden ionosphere disturbances (SID) radio blackout from a solar flare is LOW.

The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal mass ejection (CME) is LOW.

The chance of a partially geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal mass ejection (CME) is LOW.

The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal hole is LOW.

Daily maximum/minimum solar flux index levels (SFI) will range between 88 and 78. 

The probability of a very small B class solar flare is MODERATE.

The probability of a small C class solar flare is MODERATE.

The probability of a large M class solar flare is LOW.

The probability of a very large X class solar flare is LOW.

When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity is negative the probability of geomagnetic storming on Earth increases. The NOAA/SWPC Wang-Sheeley-Arge model forecasts the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) to be NEGATIVE.

SPACE WEATHER SCALES-

The Kp index is a measure of geomagnetic activity for the previous three hour period.

 Kp Indices-

The Ap index is a measure of geomagnetic activity for the previous 24 hour day.

Ap Indices-

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF/HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2010 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

1.) Dropping indices numbers are better.

2.) A solar flux of 150 or higher, 200+ best, for medium frequencies under 100, fewer than 70 best.

Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere for F layer medium frequency refractions, as the energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most are used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a hard habit to break. A better indicator is the background X-Ray Flux. See #7 below.

3.) A solar flux in the mid 100’s for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
 
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than A1 for several days consecutively.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path Aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -20 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a Geomagnetic Storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my propagation forecasts. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2010 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O. Reproduction of and distribution of information herein is allowed without advanced permission as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts are not official but for hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.