Clouds arrived just in the nick of time to prevent a significant freeze event on the peninsula. The cold spot in the state was 26 deg. at Scottsmoor COOP on the east central peninsula. The temperature dipped as low as 32 deg at Muse COOP on the south peninsula region.

Hi and mid clouds are moving across the panhandle north region and high clouds are moving across the south peninsula region. However the non peninsula north, north peninsula and central peninsula regions all still have clear skies. The surface wind is calm and dew point temperatures still low.

At 11:00 pm temperatures in inland rural areas are dropping through the 30's. At my location six miles south of Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa the temperature has fallen to 36 deg and frost is beginning to form. If the clouds don't arrive soon many locations will drop below freezing. Not good!

It looks like inland rural areas of the north and parts of the central Florida regions could get down to around 32 deg by around midnight Saturday morning, before the high and mid level clouds start rolling in ahead of the next winter storm. Some of the colder inland rural locations across the south central peninsula region could also touch 32 deg and the coldest minimums of the state could occur there for early Saturday morning 2/27, as the clouds will reach that region last.

The weather really looks lousy for tomorrow with a cold rain falling across the north and central regions of the state. Temperatures could hover in the 40's across much of the central peninsula and even colder across the north where rain falls. There is still a small chance for frozen precipitation between Ocala and Lake City in the morning and then again Saturday evening around Jacksonville.

The south peninsula region nearer the track of the extra-tropical surface low and attendant warm front will see much warmer weather with thunderstorms possible and a small chance for severe weather.

It was quite cold again this morning, with the cold spot being 21 deg at Nobleton East on the west central peninsula.

As follows are the coldest minimum temperatures by region.

Panhandle north-

Tallahassee AP- 22

Other notable minimum temperatures-

Mossy Head CWOP 4491- 23 deg

Quincy FAWN- 24 deg

Non peninsula north-

Lake City CWOP AS720/KI4ZBO- 22 deg

Middleburg CWOP 5036- 22 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures-

Jacksonville Cecil AP- 23 deg

Olustee RAWS- 25 deg

North peninsula-

Cross City AP- 22 deg

High Springs CWOP 7748- 22 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures-

High Springs CWOP 7748- 24 deg

Trenton CWOP 1450- 24 deg

Central peninsula-

Nobleton East- 21 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures-

Holder CWOP 1327- 23 deg

Archbold COOP- 24 deg

South peninsula-

Muse COOP- 30 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures-

ACRAWX SFWMD- 31 deg

Palmdale FAWN- 32 deg

Keys-

Curry Hammock State Park COOP- 49 deg

Islamorada CWOP 1872- 49 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures-

Marathon AP- 50 deg

Long Key CWOP 0924- 50 deg

With Canadian high pressure settling across the central peninsula region it will be another cold night state wide. However with incoming high and mid level clouds associated with the next winter storm, significant subfreezing temperatures will probably not occur. The cold spot in the state for early Saturday morning 2/27 will may be across the south central or peninsula regions, as clouds will be last to arrive there.

The 1200 UTC-7:00 am EST GFSX model run has come in further north with Tuesday's expected winter storm and associated strong extra-tropical surface low pressure system. It's now forecasting the surface low to move across the south central peninsula versus the Florida Straits.

However it's still the outlier weather forecast model solution with the ECMWF model having the best handle on the developing weather situation. The ECMWF brings the surface low across the north peninsula region with an increased chance for severe weather along and south of the track of the low and associated warm front.

The limiting factor could be the speed at which the winter storms are moving eastward in the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream. Warm and moist air may not be able to return northward across the peninsula fast enough to provide the low level instability needed to produced deep layered thunderstorms. However mid and upper level dynamics with this system will be strong enough to still produce some severe weather.

Tonight looks to be very cold across the Florida region. No high and mid level clouds will be streaming across the state, surface winds will become light to at times calm early across the north region, with the central and south regions seeing the same after midnight and 3:00 am. Dewpoint temperatures will be low, so it looks like near ideal conditions for a radiational cooling freeze event.

Speaking of dewpoint temperatures at 1:00 pm EST they have crashed into the 10's and 20's north and central regions and 20's and 30's south region.

The panhandle north, non panhandle north and north peninsula regions will see a hard freeze with minimum temperatures in the upper 10's to mid 20's and frost.

The central peninsula region will have to be split up into three sub regions.

The north central peninsula region will see a significant freeze, with isolated locations seeing a hard freeze in inland rural areas with minimum temperatures in the low to mid 20's and frost.

The central peninsula region will see a significant freeze in inland rural areas with minimum temperatures in the mid 20's to low 30's and a heavy frost.

The south central peninsula region will see a light freeze in inland rural areas north of S.R. 70 and west of I-95 with minimum temperatures in the upper 20's to low 30's and a heavy frost.

The south peninsula region will see a near freeze with isolated locations seeing a light freeze in inland rural areas with minimum temperatures in the low to mid 30's and a light to moderate patchy frost.

The Keys region will see minimum temperatures in the mid 40's to mid 50's.

If you live near the coast and/or in an urban area you can add 5-10 degrees to the minimum temperatures.

The Florida region saw quite a temperature drop in the past 12-18 hours. Here at my location 6 miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa the temperature fell 32 degrees from a maximum of 68 deg at 12:43 pm yesterday afternoon to 36 deg at 6:58 am this morning. The minimum wind chill temperature was 30 deg at 7:23 am.

Tentatively the cold spot in the state this morning was 28 deg at Crestview in the panhandle north region. It looks very cold for early Friday morning 2/26 with a hard freeze for the panhandle north, non peninsula north, north peninsula and north central peninsula regions, with a significant freeze event for the central and south central peninsula regions. The subfreezing line could extend into the south central peninsula region down to near S.R. 70 and west of the Florida Turnpike. I will elaborate further on this unusual late season freeze event later today.

Each succeeding GFSX model run has pushed the expected strong winter storm further south, with the extra-tropical surface low pressure system now passing through the Florida Straits during the Monday-Tuesday 3/2-3 period. If this track were to verify then the severe weather threat for the peninsula would be nil.

Specifically the 0600 UTC-1:00 am EST 2/25 run of the GFSX forecast model has gone off of the deep end with a deep south track for the surface low across the south peninsula region and I think that ultimately a higher latitude track for the surface low will occur and a significant severe weather threat for much of the peninsula is still on the table. 

Just a quick late evening update. Behind the cold front temperatures are dropping across the north and central regions of the state. A second even colder surge of Canadian air will move across the state during the overnight hours.

Also looking ahead a bit.

The GFSX model is still also forecasting a late season significant freeze event for much of the peninsula for the Thursday-Friday 3/4-5 period. This could be that second hard freeze of the season that I first mentioned on Sunday 2/7. I just can't help myself and have to say, "It must be global warming".

We will keep a close eye on this unusual developing winter storm situation for the first week of March.

As surmised in discussion #35 most of the severe weather today was along and south of the warm front across the south peninsula region. Looking at NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin LSR's (Local Storm Report) there were none. NWS Melbourne LSR's has a few reports of strong wind gusts and hail and mostly across the eastern side of the south central peninsula. The NWS Miami LSR is lit up with numerous reports of wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and large hail. The largest stone reported was 1.75" in diameter. The severe weather threat is now nil everywhere except the deep southeast peninsula region, where a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 8:00 pm EST.

The cold front and associated extra-tropical surface low pressure system crossed the central peninsula region during the afternoon. Here at my location six miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa I observed a minimum barometric pressure of 29.68" and a rainfall total of 0.26". At 5:30 pm the temperature is 54 deg and falling behind the cold front.

For early Thursday morning 2/25 minimum temperatures will be in the 20's and 30's north, 30's and 40's central and 40's and 50's south. Minimum wind chill temperatures will be below freezing as far south as the south central peninsula for early tomorrow morning.

For Thursday afternoon 2/25 maximum temperatures will struggle into the 40's north, 50's central and 60's south. For early Friday morning 2/26 minimum temperatures will be in the 20's north, 20's and 30's central and 30's and 40's south. The subfreezing line could dip into the south central peninsula region in inland rural areas north of S.R. 70 and west of the Florida turnpike.

There is a small chance for some severe weather on Saturday 2/27 and a significant severe weather threat for the Monday-Tuesday 3/01-02 period. I will elaborate on that further tomorrow.

Yesterday afternoon maximum temperatures warmed into the upper 60's to low 70's north, mid 70's to low 80's central and upper 70's to low 80's south. Several locations reached a maximum temperature of 83 deg across the south peninsula region.

Yesterdays cold front will lift northward as a warm front today so it looks wet and stormy with several impulses of mid level (500 mb) energy (vorticity maximum's) crossing the peninsula. Rain probabilities are 70-60% south, 60-50% central and 50-40% north. Thunderstorms are probable today along and south of the warm front across the south central and south peninsula regions, with a small chance for severe weather. North of the warm front the central and north peninsula regions will see a moderate isentropic lift (warm moist air being lifted over a shallow low level cool air mass) rain event with embedded rumbles of thunder.

A strong arctic cold front sweeps across the state this afternoon and evening with a large temperature drop behind it. For early Thursday morning 2/25 minimum temperatures will be in the 20's and 30's north, 30's and 40's central and 40's and 50's south. Minimum wind chill temperatures will be below freezing as far south as the south central peninsula for early tomorrow morning.

For Thursday afternoon 2/25 maximum temperatures will struggle into the 40's north, 50's central and 60's south. For early Friday morning 2/26 minimum temperatures will be in the 20's north, 20's and 30's central and 30's and 40's south. The subfreezing line could dip into the south central peninsula region in inland rural areas north of S.R. 70 and west of the Florida turnpike.

Later today I will elaborate more on Friday morning's very cold temperatures, as well as look further ahead weather wise.

A weak cold front is passing through the Florida region today with temperatures falling back to normal by this evening and into Wednesday 2/24.

Another winter storm zipping along in the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream will move through the Florida region on Wednesday 2/24. A moderately strong extra-tropical surface low pressure system could cross the south peninsula region, with a small chance for severe weather and heavy rain possible south of the track of the surface low. North of the surface low track a cool moderate rain is possible due to isentropic lift.

A second surge of colder air will arrive for Thursday 2/25 with temperatures falling well below normal through Friday 2/26. It appears that subfreezing minimum temperatures will penetrate into the inland rural south central peninsula region on early Friday morning. Across the north minimum temperatures will be in the 20's, 20's and 30's central and 30's and 40's south.

Yet another winter storm zipping along in the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream will move through the Florida region on Saturday 2/27. A moderately strong extra-tropical surface low pressure system could cross the central peninsula region, with a small chance for severe weather and heavy rain south of the track of the surface low. North of the surface low track a moderate cool rain is possible due to isentropic lift.

On Wednesday rain probabilities will be 50% south, 60% central and 50% north. An associated weak cold front will sweep through the Florida region but cooling behind the front will be minimal.

Looking even further down the road the 0000 UTC 2/23-7:00 pm EST 2/22 run of the GFSX forecast model forecasts yet another El Nino stoked up winter storm to move through the Florida region during Monday-Tuesday 3/01-02 period. A strong extra-tropical surface low pressure system could cross the south central or south peninsula regions, with a good chance for severe weather and heavy rainfall south of the track of the surface low. This winter has seen little severe weather so far, which is quite remarkable considering that we have seen the strongest El Nino pattern since winter of 1997-1998. North of the surface low track a moderate cool rain is possible due to isentropic lift.

Check out the images below.

For 1200 UTC/7:00 am EST on 3/3 the GFSX model forecasts the following 850 mb (~5000 altitude) temperatures.

North- -4 to -6 deg C/25-21 deg F

Central- -2 to -4 deg C/28-25 deg F

South 0 to -2 deg C/ 32-28 deg F

Of course the model forecast is to far into the future to trust but when a forecast model predicts a distant weather event with some consistency as the GFSX has, then one must take notice. But you also you have to take into consideration the ever higher sun angle in Florida in March, as well as climatology.

#33 Published Monday February 22, 2010 at 9:00 pm EST

Scattered heavy showers and isolated heavy thunderstorms occurred this afternoon and evening across the central peninsula. Here at my location 6 miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa I measured 0.28" of rain in only 11 minutes. I also observed a large barometric pressure drop during the day. The barometric pressure dropped from a maximum of 29.94" at 12:03 am to a minimum of 29.69" at 5:34 pm.

In discussion #32 I forecasted a small chance of severe weather. Looking at NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin and NWS Melbourne Local Storm Reports (LSR), some severe weather did occur. Thunderstorm wind damage and dime sized hail occurred in Levy County. Also pea, dime and quarter sized hail fell in Volusia County. Thunderstorm wind gusts of 43-50 mph were observed in Volusia and Brevard County.

A significant freeze event is also still possible into the central peninsula region during the same time frame. However the time frame is to far out in advance to trust the model forecast.

#32 Published Monday February 22, 2010 at 12:00 pm EST

Sunday February 21, 2010 was mild to warm statewide with maximum temperatures in the 60's and 70's north, 70's central and 70's to near 80 south. Today and Tuesday 2/23 temperatures will also be warm but then it's all down hill after that.

In discussion #31 I forecasted rain for the Sunday evening-Monday evening 2/21-22 period.

Yesterday evening mid level disturbance (a vorticity maximum) #1 crossed the south peninsula region producing some light rains. A maximum rainfall total of 0.31" fell at several locations.

Mid level disturbance #2 is currently over the non peninsula north region and produced moderate to heavy rains and thunder across much of the north. A maximum rainfall total of 1.92" fell.

Disturbance #3 is currently in the east central Gulf of Mexico and will cross the central peninsula region during the heat of the day. I'm still forecasting a 60-50-40% chance of rain for the north central, central and south central peninsula regions. This event will be showery and convective in nature and not a widespread event. Low level dynamics look weak, mid level dynamics look fairly weak but upper level dynamics look strong, with a jet stream maximum of 160 kts at 250 mb overhead the Florida region but the peninsula is not in the favored right rear quadrant (RRQ). So at best some strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. An associated relatively weak cold front will sweep through the Florida region today but cooling behind the front will be minimal.

The next chance for rain will be during the Wednesday evening-Thursday early morning 2/24-25 period. This looks to be a stronger winter storm zipping along in the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream. It appears that a strong extra-tropical surface low pressure system will cross the south central or south peninsula region. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible, 70% south, 60% central, 50% north, with a small chance for severe weather. An associated stronger cold front will sweep through the Florida region with much colder weather returning statewide during the Wednesday-Saturday 2/24-27. On early Friday morning the subfreezing line could dip into the inland rural central peninsula down to near the I-4 corridor.

Yet another winter storm zipping along in the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream will move through the Florida region on Saturday 2/27. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible, with a small chance for severe weather. An associated relatively weak cold front will sweep through the Florida region but cooling behind the front will be minimal.

#31 Published Sunday February 21, 2010 at 2:00 pm EST

The cold spot in the state this morning was 29 deg at Crestview AP in the panhandle north region. As I write this discussion it is 77 deg at my location 6 miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa, the warmest in quite a long time!

It still looks like a chance of rain during the Sunday evening-Monday evening 2/21-22 period. Rain chances for the north 80-70%,  60-50% central and south. The subtropical jet stream is re-energizing and moving northward once again sending us another winter storm system.

The next chance for rain will be during the Wednesday evening-Thursday morning 2/24-25 period. This looks to be a stronger winter storm zipping along in the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream. It appears that another stronger extra-tropical surface low pressure system and associated cold front will cross the south central or peninsula region. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible, with a small chance for severe weather.

Colder weather returns for the period of Thursday-Sunday 2/25-28. Temperatures look to be in the 50's/20's north, 60's/30's central and 70's/40's south.

#30 Published Saturday February 20, 2010 at 10:00 am EST

The cold spot in the state this morning was 25 deg at Mossy Head CWOP 4491 in the panhandle north region. There is a small chance for rain showers (30% south, 20% central) today on the peninsula due to a weak mid level (500 mb) disturbance moving along in the re-energizing subtropical jet stream.

Our long awaited warmer weather pattern is finally here, with temperatures looking pretty mild for the next six days. That would be the period of Saturday-Thursday 2/20-25, with maximum temperatures across the north in the 60's, 60's and 70's central and 70's to around 80 south.

The fly in the ointment so to speak will be a chance of rain during the Sunday evening-early Tuesday morning 2/21-23 period. Rain chances for the north 70-60%,  50-40% central and south. The subtropical jet stream is re-energizing and moving northward once again sending us a fairly weak winter storm system.

The next chance for rain will be during the period of Wednesday evening-Thursday evening 2/24-25. This looks to be a stronger winter storm zipping along in the El Nino re-energized subtropical jet stream. It appears that another stronger extra-tropical surface low pressure system and associated cold front will cross the south central or peninsula region. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible, with a small chance for severe weather.

Colder weather returns for the period of Friday-Sunday 2/26-28. Temperatures look to be in the 50's/20's north, 60's/30's central and 70's/40's south.

In the longer term through 3/7 the weather pattern looks to be changeable with periods of warm and cold weather and rain, thanks to the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream.

Usually by early March meteorological spring (min temps >32 deg) begins on the central peninsula and mid February on the south peninsula. However with a moderate (+1.5 deg. C in nino3.4 region) El Nino pattern still in force, as well as a persistent negative AO and NAO and positive PNA, we will see abnormally late wet and cold periods in March and April.

#29 Published Friday February 19, 2010 at 10:00 am EST

I've been a bit under the weather (no pun intended) the past couple of days so have been slowed in the number of discussions that I normally post.

As surmised in discussion #28, during the overnight hours high and mid level clouds in association with the subtropical jet stream streamed across all of the peninsula and parts of the panhandle north region. The clouds prevented a hard to moderate freeze across the north and central regions and a freeze south.

Yesterday afternoon dew point temperatures plunged into the teens as far south as the south central peninsula and 20's across the south peninsula. At my location 6 miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa the dewpoint plunged to 15 degrees at it's lowest.

With low dew points in place and a light to calm wind the stage was set for excellent radiational cooling conditions, that is except the clouds.

As follows are the coldest minimum temperatures this morning by region.

Panhandle north-

Mossy Head CWOP 4491- 26 deg

Non peninsula north-

Jasper COOP- 28 deg

North peninsula-

High Springs CWOP 4385- 30 deg

Central peninsula-

Nobleton East- 29 deg

South peninsula-

Muse COOP- 36 deg

Keys-

Plantation CWOP 0921- 51 deg

I will look further down the road weather wise later today.

#28 Published Thursday February 18, 2010 at 10:00 am EST

During the overnight hours yet another mid level vorticity maximum moving along in the longwave trough currently anchored in the eastern U.S. zipped across the Florida region. This allowed for a persistent W-WSW surface wind flow occurred across the central peninsula. In the wake of the latest 500 mb disturbance dewpoint temperatures have plunged into the low to mid 20's across the north and central regions.

The passing mid level disturbance held temperatures up a bit on the west central peninsula due to the onshore flow. Early this morning the subfreezing temperature line extended into the inland rural central peninsula region down to approximately I-4 and west of the Florida Turnpike. Subfreezing wind chill temperatures extended into the central peninsula region.

In the wake of the latest 500 mb disturbance dewpoint temperatures have plunged into the low to mid 20's across the north and central regions of the state. The low dew points will set the state for possibly the coldest night of the month, if high clouds currently SW of the state in association with the sub tropical jet stream hold off from streaming across the state.

As follows are the coldest minimum temperatures this morning by region.

Panhandle north-

Mossy Head CWOP 4491- 20 deg

Non peninsula north-

Lake City CWOP AS720/KI4ZBO- 26 deg

North peninsula-

High Springs CWOP 4385 & Chiefland COOP- 25 deg

Central peninsula-

Lake Woodruff Dam COOP- 26 deg

South peninsula-

SGGEWX SFWMD- 32 deg

Keys-

Curry Hammock State Park COOP- 50 deg

#27 Published Wednesday February 17, 2010 at 10:00 pm EST

It looks like we are in for another very cold night.

The panhandle north and non panhandle north regions will see a hard freeze tonight with minimum temperatures in the low to mid 20's.

The north peninsula region will see a freeze tonight with minimum temperatures in the mid 20's.

The central peninsula region will have to be split up into three sub regions. The north central peninsula will see a freeze with minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 20's. The central peninsula will see a freeze north of S.R. 60 and west of the Florida Turnpike with minimum temperatures in the upper 20's to low 30's in inland rural areas. The south central peninsula will be near freezing with minimum temperatures in the low to mid 30's in inland rural areas.

The south peninsula will see minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 30's in inland rural areas.

If you live near the coast and/or in an urban area you can add 5-10 degrees to the minimum temperatures.

#26 Published Wednesday February 17, 2010 at 10:00 am EST

Some middle and upper level clouds passed across the state during the night in association with a mid level vorticity maximum moving along in the longwave trough currently anchored in the eastern U.S. This morning the subfreezing line extended into the inland rural south peninsula region. Subfreezing wind chill temperatures also extended into the south peninsula region.

As follows are the coldest minimum temperatures by region.

Panhandle north-

Mossy Head CWOP 4491- 21 deg

Non peninsula north-

Lake City CWOP AS720/KI4ZBO- 24 deg

North peninsula-

High Springs CWOP 4385- 24 deg

Central peninsula-

Nobleton East- 25 deg

South peninsula-

Muse COOP 32 deg

Keys-

Ramrod Key CWOP 0924- 48 deg

Minimum temperatures during the period Thursday morning-Saturday morning 2/18-20 will be similar to this morning to maybe a bit colder, with the subfreezing line extending into the inland rural south peninsula, then a warming trend begins on Saturday afternoon.

During the period Saturday-Tuesday 2/20-23 maximum temperatures will be in the 60's and 70's north, 70's central and 70's to around 80 deg south. However rain chances increase for the period Monday-Tuesday 2/22-23 as another El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream winter storm approached the state from the west.

In the long range, periods of colder than normal temperature and rain will occur throughout the remainder of the month.

#25 Published Tuesday February 16, 2010 at 7:00 pm EST

It looks like we are in for another very cold night.

The panhandle north and non panhandle north regions will see a hard freeze tonight with minimum temperatures in the low to mid 20's.

The north peninsula region will see a freeze tonight with minimum temperatures in the mid 20's.

The central peninsula region will have to be split up into three sub regions. The north central peninsula will see a freeze with minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 20's. The central peninsula will see a freeze north of S.R. 60 and west of the Florida Turnpike with minimum temperatures in the upper 20's to low 30's in inland rural areas. The south central peninsula will be near freezing with minimum temperatures in the low to mid 30's in inland rural areas.

The south peninsula will see minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 30's in inland rural areas.

If you live near the coast and/or in an urban area you can add 5-10 degrees to the minimum temperatures.

This will be an advection freeze with winds from the NW-N at 3-8 mph bringing low wind chills for much of the state.

#24 Published Tuesday February 16, 2010 at 1:00 pm EST

As mentioned in discussion #24 strong cold air advection kicked in early this morning and will continue throughout today and tomorrow.

As follows are the coldest minimum temperatures by region.

Panhandle north-

Mossy Head CWOP 4491- 21 deg

Non peninsula north-

Lake City CWOP AS720/KI4ZBO- 27 deg

North peninsula-

Cross City AP- 28 deg

Central peninsula-

Beverly Hills CWOP 1496- 34 deg

Nobleton East- 34 deg

South peninsula-

Ortona COOP 35 deg.

Keys-

Curry Hammock State Park COOP- 47 deg

This latest cold wave will be the last in a series that first began two weeks ago. While all of this week will be colder than normal, we will see a slow warming trend that will eventually allow maximum temperature to reach around 70 north, low 70's central and mid 70's south by Saturday 2/20.

Oh by the way I meant to mention this a few days ago but kept forgetting. On Saturday 2/13 Lake Erie froze over nearly completely for the first time since winter 1995-1996.

#23 Published Monday February 15, 2010 at 12:00 pm EST

Looking at the latest GFSX forecast model run, during the Tuesday-Thursday 2/16-18 period it predicts the following 850 mb (5000 foot high) temperature at the coldest.

Crestview in the north -9 deg C/16 deg F.

Brooksville on the central peninsula -3 deg C/27 deg F.

Lakeland on the central peninsula -1 deg C/30 deg F.

Ft Myers on the south peninsula 0 deg C/32 deg F.

These temperatures would support some really cold minimum temperatures during the period but the latest GFSX model output statistics (MOS) do not reflect this on the central and south peninsula regions, probably due to an extended period of strong and relatively moist W-NW onshore flow.

In reality subfreezing minimum temperatures will probably penetrate into the inland rural south central peninsula or maybe further during the period but I will hold off on a minimum temperature forecast until I can get a better handle on the synoptic situation.

This latest cold wave will be the coldest and also the last in a series that first began two weeks ago. While all of this week will be colder than normal, we will see a slow warming trend that will eventually allow maximum temperature to reach around 70 north, low 70's central and mid 70's south by Saturday 2/20.

Looking into the mid and long range period say out to March 7th, teleconnection patterns are pointing to an approximate two week period with more normal temperature and precipitation for all of the state. With the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream axis suppressed south of the Florida region the period will be less stormy.

We will still see cold frontal passages and chances for rain but the air masses will be of northern Pacific Ocean source region. That's means cool and more moist, versus very cold and dry.

Let me point out that spring weather normally comes late to Florida during winter seasons with a strong to moderate El Nino. That means continued unusually cold periods through March and even April.

#22 Published Monday February 15, 2010 at 10:00 am EST

As follows are the coldest minimum temperatures by region.

Panhandle north-

Monticello 30 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures in the region-

Tallahassee AP- 32 deg

Crestview AP- 33 deg

Sandborn RAWS- 33 deg.

Non peninsula north-

Middleburg CWOP 5036- 28 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures in the region-

Jacksonville Cecil AP- 28 deg

Lake City CWOP AS720/KI4ZBO- 29 deg

North peninsula-

High Springs COOP- 27 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures in the region-

Jasper COOP- 27 deg

High Springs CWOP 7748- 29 deg.

Trenton CWOP CW1450 30 deg

Central peninsula-

Nobleton East- 23 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures in the region-

Holder CWOP 1325- 25 deg

Mt. Plymouth COOP- 27 deg

Brooksville FAWN- 27 deg

Central RAWS- 27 deg

Brooksville AP- 28 deg

Archbold COOP 29 deg.

South peninsula-

Ortona COOP 35 deg.

Other notable minimum temperatures in the region-

Bokeelia CWOP 2928- 36 deg

SGGEWX SFWMD- 36

Palmdale FAWN- 37 deg.

Keys-

Ramrod Key CWOP 0924- 46 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures in the region-

Curry Hammock State Park COOP- 48 deg

Key West NWS WFO- 48 deg

Key West CWOP 9999 @ NWS WFO- 49 deg

Geiger Key KYW5- 49

#21 Published Monday February 15, 2010 at 8:30 am EST

I received an email from a gentleman that lives in the small town of Mount Carmel and he said that snow began falling at 7:15 am CDT/8:15 EST. He also said that he has a friend that lives in the nearby town of Century and that is also receiving snow.

This is the third time that it has snowed in Florida this winter!

#20 Published Sunday February 14, 2010 at 12:00 pm EST

This morning dawned very cold once again. As surmised in discussion #19, a few hours before sunrise surface winds did drop off to a light 1-3 mph, with some areas reaching calm at times. Actually the cold Canadian high pressure system traveled from Houston, TX to right over Tampa. High and mid clouds also streamed across the state but were thinnest across the central peninsula, allowing the central peninsula to see the coldest temperatures.

The clouds did prevent what would have been a hard freeze across the central peninsula and a freeze across the south peninsula. The subfreezing line extended down to near S.R. 70 on the south central peninsula region and west of the Florida Turnpike in inland rural areas. Heavy frost was also widespread.

As follows are the coldest minimum temperatures by region.

Panhandle north-

Mossy Head CWOP DW4491 23 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures in the region-

Crestview AP- 24 deg

Tallahassee AP- 24 deg

Quincy FAWN- 26 deg

Non peninsula north-

High Springs CWOP 7748 24 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures in the region-

Middleburg CWOP 5036- 25 deg

Lake City CWOP AS/720KI4ZBO- 25 deg

North peninsula-

Cross City AP 25 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures in the region-

Gainesville AP- 26 deg

Trenton CWOP CW1450 26 deg

Central peninsula-

Nobleton East- 23 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures in the region-

Holder CWOP 1325- 24 deg

Mt. Plymouth COOP- 25 deg

Lake Woodruff Dam COOP- 25 deg

Okahumpka FAWN- 26 deg

Brooksville AP- 26 deg

South peninsula-

Everglades City RAWS- 32 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures in the region-

Muse COOP- 34

ACRWX SFWMD- 34

Keys-

John Pennekamp State Park COOP- 44 deg

Other notable minimum temperatures in the region-

Curry Hammock State Park COOP- 47 deg

Duck Key COOP- 48 deg

It will be cold again for early morning Monday 2/15 with the subfreezing line extending into the inland rural central peninsula to near I-4 and west of the Florida Turnpike, with frost. Another cold front zips through the state today followed by more serious cold weather. it appears that it will be cold all of next week but with the possibility of finally seeing some more normal temperatures by next weekend. I will take a look at next weeks weather in more depth tomorrow morning.

#19 Published Saturday February 13, 2010 at 6:30 pm EST

We have another chilly day going on, what else is new?! At 3:00 pm temperatures are struggling to reach the low 50's across the north and central regions of the state. Even in the south temperatures are struggling to reach 60 deg.

Tonight will be another cold one. The subfreezing line should extend down to near I-4 and west of the Florida Turnpike in inland rural areas. There may also be a pocket of near freezing temperatures in the inland rural south central peninsula.

There will not be good radiational cooling conditions tonight, as winds will stay up from the NNW-N at 5-10 mph, as the cold Canadian high pressure center is still back near Houston, TX. Also some high clouds currently back in south Texas are streaming ENE'ward in the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream and will probably overspread the peninsula during the second half of the night.

However winds could drop down to light (1-3 mph) a few hours before sunrise and the incoming high clouds could evaporate. If this happens then minimum temperatures could be colder, especially across the south central and south peninsula regions.

As follows are minimum temperatures forecasted for early Sunday morning 2/13 by the GFSX model for some selected cities. Crestview- 24, Tallahassee- 27, Perry 24, Cross City 25, Gainesville 26, Ocala 23, Brooksville 26, Orlando 32, Tampa 34, Tampa East 29, Punta Gorda 35, Ft. Myers, 38, Miami 43.

The numbers look pretty close.

#17 Published Saturday February 13, 2010 at 7:00 am EST

I guess that my forecast of measureable snowfall between Pensacola and Marianna of 1-3" verified. I received reports ranging between 0.3" to 2.0".

#16 Published Friday February 12, 2010 at 7:00 pm EST

Here on the south side of Lakeland the barometric pressure bottomed out at 29.44" at 5:13 pm.

There were eight severe weather reports related to strong straight line winds along the west coast via the LSR with NWS Tampa Bay. There were four severe weather reports related to thunderstorm wind damage via the LSR with NWS Miami. There were 20 reports of strong straight line winds in the Florida Keys via the LSR with NWS Key West. There were 5 reports of strong straight line winds via the LSR with NWS Melbourne.

I also received a couple of reports of sleet/ice pellets falling on the west central peninsula in Pinellas County at Clearwater and St. Petersburg.

Here are the reports that I have so far.

De Funiak Springs, Walton County 0.3-1.0"

Mossy Head, Walton County Snow covering ground but no reported measurement.

Ensley, Escambia County 0.5-1.0"

Berrydale, Santa Rosa County 2.0"

Munson, Santa Rosa County 2.0"

During the overnight hours the cold air advection will kick in in earnest, with wind gusts of 25-30 mph in inland areas and 35-40 mph along the coast lines. The extratropical surface low is offshore of Cape Canaveral and strengthening rapidly. It could reach bombogenesis (very rapid intensification) category. The pressure gradient between the departing low and incoming cold Canadian high pressure system in Texas will funnel cold dry air down the peninsula.

For early Saturday morning 2/13 temperatures should fall below the freezing mark across the panhandle north, non peninsula north, peninsula north and north central peninsula regions. The subfreezing line could reach as far south as S.R. 48 before sunrise. Subfreezing wind chills will penetrate deep into the central peninsula.

For Sunday morning and Monday morning 2/14-15 the subfreezing line could dip as far south as the inland rural south peninsula region down to approximately S.R. 80.

During the next seven day period of Tuesday-Monday 2/16-21 period I see no end to repeated cold frontal passages and periods of cold weather. There are even some hints that the colder than normal pattern could extend into early March.

#15 Published Friday February 12, 2010 at 4:00 pm EST

The barometric pressure finally bottomed out here at my location at 29.57" at 2:25 pm. At 4:00 pm the B.P. is back up to 29.60 and steady. Coinciding with the lowest B.P. was a wind shift backing from ENE to NNW and a temperature drop from 51 deg to 44 deg. I notice that to my east the temperature at Melbourne Int. AP is 63 deg. and the wind is from the south.

So it appears that a meso low passed just south of my location along the warm front and pulled the warm front north of Melbourne while pushing a pseudo cold front to my south accounting for the temperature drop.

So far today I have measured 0.54" of rain, a cold rain at that. The peak wind gust so far today is 25 mph from the north.

At 4:50 pm the B.P. is now 29.49" and falling rapidly.

#14 Published Friday February 12, 2010 at 1:30 pm EST

As the extratropical surface low pressure system continues to strengthen and approach the central peninsula region a large and rapid barometric pressure fall is occurring. At my location 6 miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa at 1:30 pm the B.P. is 29.59". Six hours ago at 7:30 am the B.P. was 29.89" and twelve hours ago at 1:30 am the B.P. was 29.95". That is 0.36" in twelve hours!

#13 Published Friday February 12, 2010 at 7:00 am EST

A mix of snow and rain has been falling at Tallahassee. A mix of sleet/ice pellets and rain has been falling across the non peninsula north and north peninsula regions. The mix has been reported in Jacksonville, Gainesville and Ocala.

Much of the peninsula faces another freeze threat on Sunday morning 2/14.

I have people here making improvements to my house so at the moment I don't haves now the time to cover the winter storm. I will address it in more detail later this morning.

#12 Published Thursday February 11, 2010 at 9:00 pm EST

The 9:00 pm weather observations are showing sleet/ice pellets beginning to fall across the western panhandle region.

It normally only occurs during moderate to strong El Nino's. It will be interesting to see just how low that barometric pressure will fall across the central peninsula.

I suspect that gale force winds are going to surprise many especially along the west coast of the peninsula and that includes some storm surge issues, as well as the east coast. Mid and upper level dynamics in the form of strong helicity (vertical spin) and jet stream speed maxes (or streaks) between 850-250 mb will be in place and it won't take much low level instability to fire off some thunderstorms that could reach severe weather levels.

I suspect that forecast models are underestimating the amount of warm air advection (WAA) that is going to occur across the south central and south peninsula regions. Severe weather may be more widespread than anyone is forecasting, in the form of strong straight line winds and possible tornadoes. The best chance for severe weather continues to lie near and south of the warm front across the south central and south peninsula regions.

#11 Published Thursday February 11, 2010 at 5:00 pm EST

Strong cold air advection will occur early Saturday morning 2/13 behind the departing strengthening surface low pressure system.

#10 Published Thursday February 11, 2010 at 2:00 pm EST

It could be a reputation maker or buster for any Meteorologist, especially a retired and rusty one like myself. After looking at the latest weather forecast model runs, the current synoptic situation and some climatology, I guess that I'll just jump into the doo doo straight away.

It could cross the peninsula west to east as far north as say Sarasota to Ft. Pierce or as far south as say Everglades City to Ft. Lauderdale. Normally climatology would argue against such a low latitude track but during a moderate to strong El Nino it does happen.

Snow could break out late Thursday evening-Early Friday morning 2/11-12 beginning at Pensacola and then moving ENE-ward to near Marianna and points northward to the Florida-Alabama state line. Measureable snow of 1-3" is possible in this zone and if you believe the latest NAM forecast model, upwards of 5-6" of snow could fall.

It appears as though the winter storm will be a two part scenario, with flakes falling from Pensacola to the Apalachicola River Thursday night into Friday morning and then further eastward on Friday evening and Saturday morning 2/12-13. A mix of rain and snow could fall as far east as Tallahassee before sunrise on Friday morning with no accumulation. Then a mix of light rain and snow could fall along a line between Monticello to Jasper to Fernandina Beach and points northward Friday evening-Saturday morning. A flake or two could also fall as far south as a line say from Cross City to Gainesville to St. Augustine.

What ultimately happens depends on the strength and track of the surface extra-tropical low pressure system. Weak surface lows are more conducive to snow in north Florida, as warm air advection in the SE-E quadrants of the storm is weaker to nearly non existent.

During the day on Friday maximum temperatures could hover in the low to mid 30's across the panhandle west region and mid 30's to low 40's across the non peninsula north region. With temperatures hovering in the low to mid 40's, a significant rainfall event could occur across portions of the north and central peninsula region. It would be an isentropic lift (warm moist air lifted over a shallow cold air mass) rain.

Once again depending on the track of the surface extra-tropical low pressure system, the weather across the south central peninsula could range between the 50's and rain to 60's and rain, with possibly some thunderstorms. The south peninsula weather could range between temperatures in the 60's with rain, with possibly a few thunderstorms to temperatures in the 70's with thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. 

There will be plenty of high (>300 m2s-2) helicity (vertical spin) values. The saving grace against severe weather would be the lack of low level instability and therefore lack of thunderstorm formation.

That's my .05 cents on the issue now due to inflation. I will continue to monitor the situation as the day progresses.

#9 Published Thursday February 11, 2010 at 11:00 am EST

This morning dawned quite chilly across the state, however it was warmer across the central peninsula region than I thought that it would be. A 190 knot jet stream maximum at 250 mb and a 120 knot jet stream maximum at 500 mb carried high and mid clouds ahead of the next winter storm across the peninsula faster than I thought would occur.

The cold spots broken down by region were as follows:

Panhandle north-

Mossy Head CWOP DW4491 26 deg

Non peninsula north-

Lake City CWOP AS720/KI4ZBO 26 deg

North peninsula-

Trenton CWOP CW1450 28 deg

Central peninsula-

Chuluota CWOP DW0149 27 deg

South peninsula-

SGGEWX33 SFWMD 32 deg

I will cover the incoming winter storm in more depth later today.

Looking northward once again, during the period of Tuesday-Thursday February 9-11, 2010 yet another major winter storm wreaked havoc across parts the Mid Atlantic and New England regions. Maximum snow totals by state are as follows:

Liberty, PA: 40.0"*
Garrett, MD: 28.0"
Wisp, MD: 24.0"*
Canaan Valley, WV: 24.0"*
Davis, WV: 26.0"**
Ortanna, PA: 27.5"
Mountain Creek, NJ: 21.0"*
Wintergreen, VA: 21.0"*
Ewing, NJ: 18.7"
Great Kills, NY: 17.0"
Chevy Chase Village, D.C.: 15.5"
Lucketts, VA: 14.0"
Bear & Wilmington, DE: 12.8"
Greenwich, CT: 12.5"
North Kingston, RI: 8.5"
East Sandwich, MA: 8.3"

Baltimore, MD and Washington, DC have now set their all time winter snow accumulation records.

I just love to listen to the deafening silence that comes from the harmful man induced climate change (global warming) crowd when record cold winter goings on is underway.

#8 Published Wednesday February 10, 2010 at 3:00 pm EST

Across the panhandle north and non peninsula north look for minimum temperatures in the upper 20's due to an increase in high and mid level clouds, mid to upper 20's north and central peninsula regions and low to mid 30's south peninsula. If you live in an urban areas and/or along the coast you can add 5-10 degrees to the minimum temperature forecast due to the heat island effect and warming effect of the Gulf Of Mexico waters. As winds will stay up at 3-8 mph from the north during most of the night, little if any frost is expected, save for isolated sheltered areas. Low wind chill temperatures may also be a problem.

Thanks to the strong pressure gradient between the departing winter storm whizzing up the east coast and the incoming cold Canadian high pressure system, today we have seen some very strong cold/dry air advection occur. At my location 6 miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa, at 12:00 midnight the temperature was 58 deg. and the dewpoint 56 deg. When I arose at 5:00 am the temperature was 50 deg. and the dewpoint 45 deg. By 7:00 am (sunrise) the temperature had fallen to 42 deg. and the dewpoint 33 deg. The dewpoint then continued to fall to 24 deg. by 10:00 am and by 12:00 noon the temperature had still only recovered to 51 deg.

Right now it doesn't look like it will be a measureable event. If it occurs it appears as though it will be a two part scenario, with flakes falling west of the Apalachicola Thursday night into Friday morning and then further east on Friday night.

Now let's further ahead again into the mid and long range time periods.

Looking at teleconnection patterns the Arctic oscillation (AO) continues to hold around -5, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is holding around -3 and the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern has moved into positive territory at +1.7 and rising. We also have the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) heading for negative territory and a polar vortex in the vicinity of northern Japan heading for a location in the Gulf Of Alaska. This all adds up to a persistent period of longwave troughing occurring in the eastern 2/3's of the U.S. and longwave ridging developing out in the western U.S. and pumping northward into western Canada and Alaska.

Don't misunderstand what I'm saying though. I'm not forecasting a repeat of what happened in January, as that is a once every ~30 year occurrence on the peninsula. I'm forecasting the possibility of another significant freeze event for much of the peninsula.

A big difference in the current developing teleconnection pattern versus this time last month is that El Nino in the 3.4 region is now weaker at +1.5 deg. C, which is at moderate strength. Last month it was at +1.9 deg. C, which was in the strong category and the strongest since the epic Super El Nino of 1997-1998 that peaked at 2.4 deg. C and beat Florida up pretty bad with record rainfall, flooding and killer tornadoes. Another big teleconnection difference is that the El Nino Southern oscillation (ENSO) is very negative right now at -21 and was only -8 at it's strongest during the first two weeks of January.

The irony though is that the current El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream is actually stronger now than last month, due to the lag in the ocean-atmosphere interface. So here is hoping that this time around that El Nino will block the coldest of the Arctic air from reaching the Florida peninsula.

By the way looking at climatological statistics, hard freezes on the peninsula in both January and February are rare and last happened in 1996.

#7 Published Wednesday February 10, 2010 at 7:00 am EST

It looks to be a very chilly day today with maximum temperatures struggling into the 40's north, 50's central and 60's south. Tonight looks to be the coldest so far this month.

As follows are minimum temperatures forecasted for early Thursday morning 2/11 by the GFSX model for some selected cities. Crestview- 23, Tallahassee- 25, Perry 23, Cross City 26, Gainesville, 27, Ocala 25, Brooksville 24, Orlando 32, Tampa 33, Tampa East 29, Punta Gorda 35, Ft. Myers, 38, Miami 44.

Tonight will not be a radiational cooling night as there will be some wind between 5-8 mph and encroaching high and mid level cloudiness coming in from the west in association with the next winter storm. So tentatively I think that the minimum temperatures forecasted are a few degrees to cold. I do expect the subfreezing line to be down to around I-4 and west of U.S. 27.

I will take another look at the developing cold wave situation later today.

On Friday 2/12 an extra-tropical (cold core winter) surface low pressure system riding eastward in the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream will cross the peninsula. The latest GFSX model run places the track across the south peninsula and the ECMWF model across the central peninsula. Normally I wouldn't buy off on such a southerly track for the surface low whether it be the south or central peninsula but it does occur during El Nino winters.

Whichever part of the peninsula is on the warm sector south side of the low may see some severe weather in the form of tornadoes due to high (>300 m2s-2) helicity (vertical spin) values. The saving grace against severe weather would be the lack of low level instability and therefore lack of thunderstorm formation.

#6 Published Tuesday February 9, 2010 at 5:00 pm EST

At my location approximately six miles south of downtown Lakeland between Orlando and Tampa I measured 0.35" of rain between 12:37-5:01 pm today. That total is probably pretty representative of what fell across most of the central peninsula. The band of light to moderate rain is just now beginning to move across the southern peninsula. During the day a weak surface extra-tropical low pressure has been transiting across the eastern Gulf Of Mexico and targeting the north central peninsula. The pressure has fallen to as low as 29.76" here at my location. You know that El Nino is doing it's thing when surface low pressure systems cross the peninsula.

The north and central peninsula will see a cold rain with minimum temperatures hovering in the 30's and 40's and daytime maximum temperatures in the 40's and 50's. It will be a significant rain event at that.

Of course I will keep a close eye on this developing situation!

#5 Published Tuesday February 9, 2010 at 11:00 am EST

The rain probabilities that I used in an earlier forecast for Tuesday 2/9 were from the GFSX model. However looking at the latest satellite imagery and radar return trends the probabilities for the central and south peninsula may be to high.

Looking at the latest SKEW-T data from the 8:00 AM EST NWS Tampa Bay radiosonde launch the atmosphere over the central peninsula is still dry at only 0.71" of precipitable water. At the NWS Miami radiosonde launch the precipitable water is only 0.72".

So I think that a measureable amount of non convective rainfall with a probability of 50-40% central and 40-30% south is more reasonable. We do have a bidirectional (changes direction with height) wind flow and a helicity (vertical spin) of 346 m2s-2, so if a thunderstorm was able to form then there would be a small chance for an isolated tornado. However convective inhibition is extremely high at 52495.28 J/kg over the central peninsula and 63000.41 J/kg over the south peninsula, so the chance for thunderstorms is extremely low.

Much colder temperatures roar in again on strong winds for the period Wednesday-Friday 2/10-12 as the progressive (fast moving) weather pattern continues. Thursday morning 2/11 will be the coldest with the subfreezing line once again extending southward into parts of the inland rural central peninsula, north of S.R. 60 and west of U.S. 27. As the cold temperatures will be of the advection type (windy), low wind chill temperatures will also occur. Across the north look for minimum temperatures in the low to mid 20's, upper 20's to low 30's central and mid to upper 30's south. If you live in an urban and/or coastal areas you can add 5-10 degrees to the minimum temperatures due to the heat island effect.

It will be cool to cold statewide during the Sunday-Monday 02/14-15 period and unfortunately it is appearing more likely that the cold weather pattern is going to lock in for an extended period of time (possibly as late as the third week of the month), much like in January. With more and more snow coverage and depth occurring in the Ohio valley, deep south and mid Atlantic regions, the chance for a significant freeze for the north and central peninsula and possibly even the inland rural southern peninsula increases.

#4 Published Tuesday February 8, 2010 at 11:00 pm EST

The rain probabilities that I used in an earlier forecast for Tuesday 2/9 were from the GFSX model. However looking at the latest satellite imagery trends the probabilities for the central and south peninsula may be to high. I will address the issue further on Tuesday morning.

#3 Published Monday February 8, 2007 at 3:00 pm EST

Today we begin a bit of a warm up ahead of yet another winter storm moving rapidly eastward towards Florida in the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream. Maximum temperatures today should be in the 50's north, 60's central and 70's south. The rain arrives statewide on Tuesday 2/9, with rain probabilities in the morning north of 70-60%, afternoon central of 60-50% and evening south of 50-40%.

Much colder air comes roaring in again for the period Wednesday-Friday 2/10-12 as the progressive (fast moving) weather pattern continues indefinitely. Thursday morning 2/11 will be the coldest with the subfreezing line once again extending southward into parts of the inland rural central peninsula, north of S.R. 60 and west of U.S. 27. Across the north look for minimum temperatures in the low to mid 20's, upper 20's to low 30's central and mid to upper 30's south. If you live in an urban areas you can add 5-10 degrees to the minimum temperatures due to the heat island effect.

On Friday morning 2/12 it warms up a bit but with yet more cold rain arriving and extending into Saturday morning 2/13, as yet another winter storm moves rapidly eastward towards Florida in the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream. The associated extra-tropical surface low pressure system may actually cross the south peninsula producing the cold rain across the central peninsula.

It will be cool during the Sunday-Monday 02/14-15 period but I will hold off on specifics at the moment. 

#2 Published Monday February 8, 2007 at 11:00 am EST

This morning dawned quite chilly across the state. The cold spots broken down by region were as follows:

Panhandle north-

Crestview AP 25 deg, Mossy Head CWOP DW3846 25 deg

Non peninsula north-

Jacksonville Cecil AP 28 deg

North peninsula-

Trenton CWOP CW1450 30 deg

Central peninsula-

Nobleton East 28 deg

South peninsula-

SGGEWX33 SFWMD 33 deg

Today we begin a warm up ahead of yet another winter storm moving rapidly eastward towards Florida in the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream. The rain and thunderstorms with a small chance for severe weather arrives statewide on Tuesday 2/9, with rain probabilities from north to south at 80%, 70%, 60%.

Much cooler temperatures roar in again for the period Wednesday-Friday 2/10-12 as the progressive (fast moving) weather pattern continues indefinitely.

#1 Published Sunday February 7, 2007 at 6:00 pm EST

It's has been quite cool across the state today in the wake of the strong cold front that passed through the state during the Thursday-Friday 2/4-5 period. The cold front was in association with the strong winter storm that created a record blizzard in parts of the deep south, Ohio valley and mid Atlantic regions.

Here are some maximum snow totals observed in each state impacted by the nor'easter during the Thursday-Saturday February 4-6 period:

Colesville, MD: 40.0"
Lehew, WV: 34.0"
Howellsville, VA: 32.0"
Upper Strasburg, PA: 31.0"
National Park, NJ: 28.5"
American University, DC: 27.5"
Wilmington, DE: 26.5"
Washington, DC: 20.0"
Coumbiana, OH: 17.0"
Blowing Rock, NC: 13.2"
Great Kills, NY: 6.4"
Alexandria, IN: 6.0"

Anyway getting back to Florida, today maximum temperatures have struggled to reach the mid to upper 40's north, mid to upper 50's central and mid to upper 60's south. Tonight looks to be the coldest night in quite a while, with the subfreezing line extending southward into parts of the inland rural central peninsula, north of I-4 and west of U.S. 27. Across the north look for minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 20's, low to mid 30's central with frost and upper 30's to low 40's south. If you live in an urban areas you can add 5-10 degrees to the minimum temperatures due to the heat island effect.

Tomorrow we begin a warm up ahead of yet another winter storm moving rapidly eastward towards Florida in the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream. The rain and thunderstorms with a small chance for severe weather arrives on Tuesday 2/9 and then much cooler temperatures roar in again for the period Wednesday-Friday 2/10-12.

Thursday morning will be the coldest with the subfreezing line once again extending southward into parts of the inland rural central peninsula, north of I-4 and west of S.R. 27. Across the north look for minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 20's, low to mid 30's central with frost and upper 30's to low 40's south. If you live in an urban areas you can add 5-10 degrees to the minimum temperatures due to the heat island effect.

On Friday 2/12 it warms up with yet more rain and thunderstorms and a small chance for severe weather extending into Saturday morning 2/13, as yet another winter storm moves rapidly eastward towards Florida in the El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream.

It cools off once again for the period Sunday-Monday 2/14-15.

Looking at teleconnection patterns the Arctic oscillation (AO) has already tanked to around -5, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is tanking to around -3 so far and the Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern has moved into positive territory at +1.5 and rising. We also have the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) heading for negative territory and a polar vortex in the vicinity of northern Japan heading for a location in the Gulf Of Alaska. This all adds up to a persistent period of longwave troughing developing in the eastern 2/3's of the U.S. and longwave ridging developing out in the western U.S. and pumping northward into western Canada and Alaska.

Don't misunderstand what I'm saying though. I'm not forecasting a repeat of what happened in January, as that is a once every ~30 year occurrence on the peninsula. I'm forecasting the possibility of another significant freeze event for much of the peninsula.

A big difference in the current developing teleconnection pattern versus this time last month is that El Nino in the 3.4 region is now weaker at +1.5 deg. C, which is at moderate strength. Last month it was at +1.9 deg. C, which was in the strong category and the strongest since the epic Super El Nino of 1997-1998 that peaked at 2.4 deg. C and beat Florida up pretty bad with record rainfall, flooding and killer tornadoes. Another big teleconnection difference is that the El Nino Southern oscillation (ENSO) is very negative right now at -22 and was only -8 at it's strongest during the first two weeks of January.

The irony though is that the current El Nino stoked up subtropical jet stream is actually stronger now than last month, due to the lag in the ocean-atmosphere interface. So here is hoping that this time around that El Nino will block the coldest of the Arctic air from reaching the Florida peninsula.

By the way looking at climatological statistics, hard freezes on the peninsula in both January and February are rare and last happened in 1996.

NOTE!!! Standard Disclaimer-

As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2004, I do not expend the $$$ resources necessary for access to in depth raw weather forecasting data nor the time necessary to conduct an in depth daily meteorological synoptic analysis. Therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range and a 120 hour forecast accuracy in the low 90% range. To put it in simple terms my weather forecasting skill is a bit rusty {:<))

This discussion is billed as daily and I generally will publish by 11:00 AM EDT/EST and then again as further updates are necessary. On some days I will not publish anything at all, it will always depend on what's going on with the weather. Also this technical weather discussion/forecast looks into the near and mid range time wise and also at times the distant future, as well as discusses a bit of the past. It is not intended to be a resource for in depth daily weather forecasts for every location in Florida. For that consult your local National Weather Service forecast office.