NZ4O Solar Cycle 24 Forecast Discussion & Archive

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my discussion. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the interpretation of the data and discussion that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the discussion contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2010 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O. Reproduction of and distribution of this discussion herein is allowed without advanced permission as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts are not official but for hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.

Posted Sunday January 31, 2010 at 1500 UTC

On Saturday the 30th a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged in NE quadrant of the Sun near N27E35 and was numbered 11043 by NOAA/SWPC. It contains a beta magnetic signature capable of producing B class and isolated C class solar flares.

On Saturday the 30th the solar flux index values were 77.0 75.0 74.2 and the sunspot number 25. We have had visible sunspots for 10 days in a row, 23 of the last 24 days and 34 of the last 36 days. I think that we can safely say that solar cycle 24 is well underway and steadily picking up it's pace.

Sunspot group #11041 is now a spotless plage near S27W58 and will soon cross the SW limb of the Sun.

Posted Wednesday January 27, 2010 at 1500 UTC

Sunspot group #11042 has set across the NW limb of the Sun. Hopefully it will survive the approximate two week trip around the far side of Old Sol.

Sunspot group #11041 has become magnetically less complex and therefore been relatively quiet since rising over the SE limb of the Sun on January 20th. I expected some resurgence in M class solar flare activity, as is common with a large and magnetically complex sunspot group but so far nothing has happened. Some increased activity is still possible in future days.

The solar flux index values are 81.7 79.8 78.2 and per my forecast the sunspot number is now 28.

Posted Sunday January 24, 2010 at 1500 UTC

Sunspot group #11041 has become magnetically less complex and therefore been quiet since rising over the east limb of the Sun on January 20th. C class solar flares and isolated M class solar flares are still possible and I suspect that we will see another surge in solar flare activity in future days.

#11042 has grown a bit in magnetic complexity and C class solar flares as well as isolated M class solar flares are still possible.

The solar flux index values are 86.2 84.6 83.1 and per my forecast the sunspot number is now 40, the second highest of solar cycle 24.

I competed in the BARTG RTTY contest yesterday and made contacts via the F2 layer into Europe and the South Pacific on 15 meters. Per my forecast the sunspot count of 40 definitely improved propagation conditions on that band.

BTW if you see me point out the accuracy of certain aspects of my propagation forecast, it is to highlight those sections not to brag. There is so much information in my forecasts that it can be overlooked.

Posted Thursday January 22, 2010 at 1030 UTC

We have a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group that has emerged in the NW quadrant of the Sun near N29E19. SIDC Belgium assigned it Catania #38 and when numbered by NOAA/SWPC it will be #11042. It appears to have a beta magnetic signature capable of producing B and C class solar flares.

The solar flux index values are 84.1 82.6 80.5 and the sunspot number 17.

Update 2300 UTC

NOAA/SWPC assigned new solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11042 near N22W28. It has a beta magnetic signature capable of producing B and C class solar flares.

The solar flux index values are 84.6 82.4 81.7 and per my forecast the sunspot number is now 30.

Posted Wednesday January 20, 2010 at 0330 UTC

Recurrent solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11039 has risen above the SE limb of the sun near 27 degrees south. It has been re-numbered #11041 by NOAA/SWPC. It appears as though this sunspot group will be very active and entertaining in future days and possibly push the sunspot count to new record highs.

Updated 1900 UTC

Wow sunspot group #11041 has produced four M class solar flares so far today, a new record for solar cycle 24. They are M3.4 at 1722 UTC, M1.9 at 1054 UTC, M1.7 at 0744 UTC, M1.0 at 0710 UTC.

The M3.4 solar flare created yet another sudden ionosphere disturbance (SID) that absorbed radio signals causing a radio black out that reached as high as 12000 kc on the sun light side of the Earth.

Geomagnetic storming (Kp-5) has commenced in association with new northern hemisphere coronal hole #389.

Posted Tuesday January 19, 2010 at 1600 UTC

At 1324 UTC an M2.3 solar flare was detected. The source region is unknown at this time but it is likely that it was released by a sunspot group around the east limb of the Sun. This is the first M class solar flare for solar cycle 24.

The solar flux index values are 82.2 81.5 81.3 and the sunspot number 14.

On January 12th thanks to recurrent sunspot group #11040, the solar flux index (SFI) peaked at 95.4 and the sunspot number (SSN) 41, both record highs for solar cycle 24.

Updated 2000 UTC

Associated with the M2.3 class solar flare was a sudden ionosphere disturbance (SID) that absorbed radio signals causing a radio black out that reached as high as 12000 kc on the sun light side of the Earth. This was the first radio blackout of solar cycle 24.

Updated 2100 UTC

Yet another M class solar flare occurred at 2028 UTC, this time an M1.7. It also produced a sudden ionosphere disturbance (SID) that absorbed radio signals causing a radio black out that reached as high as 11000 kc on the sun light side of the Earth.

Both M class solar flares are associated with recurrent sunspot group #11039 which is due to rise around the eastern limb of the Sun in the next day or two.

Posted Sunday January 10, 2010 at 1300 UTC

Solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11040 located near N29E38, with a beta-gamma magnetic signature continues to increase in size and magnetic complexity. It is capable of producing very small B class and small C class solar flares and has done just that producing a C1.0 solar flare at 1503 UTC yesterday.

The solar flux index values are 83.2 81.7 80.5 and the sunspot number 20.

Posted Friday January 8, 2010 at 1300 UTC

We now officially have solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11040 located near N28E59, with a beta magnetic signature capable of producing very small B class solar flares and an isolated small C class solar flare.

The solar flux index values are 79.2 78.1 76.3 and the sunspot number 15.

Posted Wednesday January 6, 2010 at 1400 UTC

Solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11039 has set around the western limb of the Sun. Old solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11038 has risen around the eastern limb of the Sun. At the moment it appears to contain a spot or two but is difficult to tell for sure at the moment. If so and it survives then NOAA/SWPC will re-number it #11040.

The solar flux index values are 69.2 76.8 75.1 and the sunspot number 13.

Updated 2300 UTC

NOAA/SWPC says that sunspot group #11038 is a spotless plage but I see one lone spot and I suspect that it will produce new spots in days to come. SIDC has assigned it Catania #35.

The solar flux index values are 77.8 77.3 76.1 and the sunspot number 00, ending an 11 day period with visible sunspots.

Posted Saturday December 26, 2009 at 2230 UTC

A solar cycle 24 sunspot group has "re-emerged" near S26E45 and has received #11039 by NOAA/SWPC It has a beta magnetic signature capable of producing very small B class solar flares and an isolated small C class solar flare. This sunspot group is the one that I mentioned in my last posting that NOAA/SWPC failed to observe on December 24th.

The solar flux index values are 78.2 75.9 74.5 and the sunspot number 13.

Posted Thursday December 24, 2009 at 1300 UTC

A new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged early this morning. It is located near S27E26 and appears to have a simple beta magnetic signature. If and when it's numbered by NOAA/SWPC it will be #11039.

If numbered then the month of December has seen seven solar cycle 24 sunspot groups emerge. And of course that is a new record for solar cycle 24.

The solar flux index values for December 23rd were 80.7 78.4 76.8 and the sunspot number 23.

Updated 2300 UTC

NOAA/SWPC missed an opportunity to officially number two new solar cycle 24 sunspot groups. It's not the first time that they have been asleep at the wheel!

Posted Tuesday December 22, 2009 at 1300 UTC

At 0450 UTC sunspot group #11036 located near S27W45 released a small C7.2 solar flare, the second largest of solar cycle 24. The solar flare was not geoeffective (Earth directed) so any potential coronal mass ejection (CME) released would not impact Earth's magnetic field.

The solar flux index values for December 21st were 84.9 82.7 81.2 and the sunspot number 42.

Updated 2300 UTC

A partially geoeffective (Earth directed) coronal mass ejection was released by today's C7.2 solar flare but it should miss Earth. Today a total of five C class solar flares were released by sunspot groups #11036 and #11038, a new record for solar cycle 24. They were C7.2 at 0450 UTC, C1.0 at 1410 UTC, C1.1 at 1526 UTC and C1.3 at 2027 UTC.

The solar flux index values for December 22nd were 85.0 82.2 79.9 and the sunspot number 26.

Posted Monday December 21, 2009 at 0100 UTC

We now have a fourth officially numbered solar cycle 24 sunspot group, #11038 near N16W26 with an alpha magnetic signature.

Updated at 1100 UTC

We have had visible sunspots on the Sun for 13 days in a row a new solar cycle 24 record. The sunspot count is 42 and the solar flux index is 84.

Posted Sunday December 20, 2009 at 1200 UTC

We now officially have solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11036, located near S29W19 with a beta magnetic signature. We also have solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11037, located near N18E54 with a beta magnetic signature.

We now have three solar cycle 24 numbered sunspot groups in existence at the same time, a new record high for solar cycle 24. Also the sunspot number is 43, also a new record high for solar cycle 24.

Posted Saturday December 19, 2009 at 1700 UTC

The latest Catania Astrophysical Observatory Belgium sunspot drawing http://web.ct.astro.it/sun/draw.jpg shows two sunspots in a group near 18N62E with a solar cycle 24 sunspot group polarity. The sunspot drawing also shows two sunspots in a group near 26S10W, also with a solar cycle 24 sunspot group polarity. Neither have been numbered yet by NOAA/SWPC.

Posted Friday December 18, 2009 at 1100 UTC

Tentatively we have a new sunspot group that has just risen above the eastern horizon of the Sun. If so and it survives it will be numbered 11036. However we will need another day to really get a good look at it. Yesterday it released a very small B9.7 solar flare and non geoeffective (Earth directed) coronal mass ejection (CME).

The solar flux index is 88, a new solar cycle 24 high and the sunspot number is 24.

Updated at 2300 UTC

Sunspot group #11035 released yet another C class solar flare, this time a C7.6 at 1855 UTC. This solar flare is now the largest so far for solar cycle 24. Looking at the latest Lasco 2 and 3 imagery it appears that a geoeffective (Earth directed) (probable full halo) coronal mass ejection (CME) was released. The CME could trigger geomagnetic storming here on Earth several days from now.

The solar flux index is 87 and the sunspot number is 20.

Posted Wednesday December 16, 2009 at 1400 UTC

Sunspot group #11035 near N30W13 has grown into the largest (seven times larger than the Earth) and most magnetically complex (beta-gamma) sunspot group of solar cycle 24. At 0102 UTC the sunspot group released a small C5.3 solar flare, the largest solar flare of solar cycle 24. More small C class solar flares are possible, with a chance for an isolated medium size M class solar flare.

#11035 also produced the first partially geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal mass ejection (CME) of solar cycle 24. The CME will arrive at Earth in a approximately two days and could spark a geomagnetic storm and visible aurora. Another geoeffective CME is possible, with an associated sudden ionosphere disturbance (SID) and shortwave fadeout (SWF).

The sunspot count is 38 which is the highest of solar cycle 24. The solar flux index is 82 which is tied for the highest SFI of solar cycle 24.

With the increased sunspot count we should see improved propagation conditions on 15 and 12 meters.

Updated at 2300 UTC

Sunspot #11034 has dissipated into a spotless plage. The magnetic signature of sunspot group #11035 has become more complex and now has a beta-delta configuration. Small C class solar flares and an isolated medium size M class solar flare is possible. Three small C class solar flares (C5.4, C3.7, C1.4) occurred today the most in one day so far in solar cycle 24.

Posted Monday December 14, 2009 at 1330 UTC

Yesterday evening a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged in the NE quadrant of the Sun near N30E20. It is located just to the north of #11034. It should receive #11035 from NOAA/SWPC later today. It has a beta magnetic signature capable of producing very small B class solar flares and isolated small C class solar flare. The sunspot count is 14 and the solar flux index 76.

Updated at 2300 UTC

This evening NOAA/SWPC assigned the new solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11035, near 31NE07. The sunspot count is 28 and the solar flux index is 79.

Posted Wednesday December 10, 2009

After sixteen days with no sunspot activity a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group has emerged in the NE quadrant of the sun near N18E73. Yesterday evening NOAA/SWPC numbered it 11034 and SIDC Belgium Catania #29.

It has a beta magnetic field capable of producing very small B class solar flares and isolated small C class solar flares. The sunspot number is now 13 and the solar flux index 74.

Posted Sunday November 22, 2009

Today is the 46th anniversary of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, always a sad day for me. On that fateful day America lost it's innocence forever.

Yesterday morning SOHO/C2 observed a slow moving (approximately 200 km/s) partially geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) at 0755 UTC. The source of the CME appeared to be a collapsing solar filament located near S40E30. The CME should arrive at Earth around the 24th and could spark unsettled (Kp-3) to active (Kp-4) geomagnetic conditions.

Posted Friday November 20, 2009

Yesterday evening another new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged in the NE quadrant of the Sun in between sunspot group #11032 and #11033. If numbered by NOAA/SWPC it will be #11034 and SIDC Belgium Catania #32.

The NOAA/SWPC sunspot number is 30 (tied for the highest so far for solar cycle 24) and the SIDC Belgium sunspot number is 26. The solar flux index (SFI) is 78.0.

The new sunspot groups could push the SFI above 80 in coming days. This would raise the maximum usable frequency (MUF) of the F layer high enough to improve propagation conditions on 20, 17 and 15 meters.

Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up this month. As Paul McCartney once sang, "Coming up".

Posted Thursday November 19, 2009

The cycle 24 sunspot group that I mentioned on November 18, 2009 has been numbered 11033 by the NOAA/SWPC. It is located near N17E20 and contains a beta magnetic signature capable of producing very small B class solar flares. As mentioned yesterday SIDC Belgium assigned it Catania #28.

The old solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11029 has produced new sunspots and has been re-numbered 11033 by NOAA/SWPC. SIDC Belgium has given the sunspot group Catania 30. It is located near N21E47 and contains a beta magnetic signature capable of producing very small B class solar flares.

The NOAA/SWPC sunspot number is 29 (the second highest so far for solar cycle 24) and the SIDC Belgium sunspot number is 30. The solar flux index (SFI) is 77.4.

Solar cycle 24 continues to ramp up this month!

Posted Wednesday November 18, 2009

Yesterday evening a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged in the NE quadrant of the Sun near N19E68. SIDC Belgium assigned it Catania #28. If numbered by NOAA/SWPC it will be 11032.

The sunspot group currently contains a beta magnetic signature capable of producing very small B class solar flares. On November 17, 2009 at 1259 UTC the sunspot group produced a very small B1.5 solar flare.

Under the very old method of counting sunspots SIDC Belgium gave the sunspot group a number of 11. But in reality only one simple sunspot actually emerged.

Posted Sunday November 15, 2009

Late today NOAA/SWPC did assign the new solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11031 at N30E20 and SIDC Belgium assigned it Catania #26. It has a beta class magnetic signature capable of producing very small B class solar flares.

This new sunspot group pushed the solar flux index (SFI) to 75.9 yesterday and could push the SFI above 80 in coming days. This would raise the maximum usable frequency (MUF) of the F layer high enough to improve propagation conditions on 20, 17 and 15 meters.

Under the very old method of counting sunspots SIDC Belgium gave the sunspot group a number of 11. But in reality only one simple sunspot actually emerged.

The solar cycle 24 sunspot group that emerged on Friday November 13, 2009 that received SIDC Belgium Catania #25 and located in the SW quadrant of the Sun has faded, with it's remnant Plage currently setting around the west limb of the Sun. It did not receive #11031 by NOAA/SWPC.

Yesterday yet another solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged, this time in the NE quadrant of the Sun near N29E35. As of yet it has not received a number by SIDC Belgium or NOAA/SWPC. If numbered by NOAA/SWPC it would receive #11031.

Also yesterday old solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11029 rose above the east limb of the Sun but is only a large Plage with no sunspots. Last month #11029 made it's debut as the largest and most active sunspot group in fledgling solar cycle 24.

Posted Saturday November 14, 2009

Yesterday a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged in the SW quadrant of the Sun near S27W53. It currently contains a beta magnetic signature capable of producing very small B class solar flares.

It remains to be seen if NOAA/SWPC will assign it #11031 before it fades or sets around the west limb of the Sun. SIDC in Belgium has assigned it Catania 25. Solar cycle 24 continues to slowly but steadily become more active.

Posted Thursday November 5, 2009

Greetings from Rollinsville, CO (elevation 10,000 feet) where it was 24 deg. F this morning with 9 inches of snow on the ground. Last week at this time we had 56" of snow on the ground and the temperature was 2 deg. F. What a difference one week makes.

We are really enjoying our vacation but it will soon come to an end. I brought one of my Icom IC-746 Pro's with me but the transmitter failed (the dreaded IC151 issue) so no ham radio on this trip.

A new sunspot group has emerged in the NE quadrant of the Sun near 24N12E. Tentatively it appears to have a solar cycle 23 magnetic polarity. NOAA/SWPC has yet to assign it a number but SIDC in Belgium has assigned it Catania 13.

If indeed it is a solar cycle 23 sunspot group then the already record long solar cycle is extended to 13 years and 7 months.

This evening EST NOAA/SWPC gave the new sunspot group #11030 with a beta magnetic field. There has been no mention of the polarity of the sunspot group but it could be a member of solar cycle 23.

2% of all sunspot groups contain a reversed polarity (like #11030) and the sunspot group is high enough in latitude to be a solar cycle 24 sunspot group. So I guess we should flip a coin to see what solar cycle that #11030 belongs too?!

Posted Friday October 23, 2009

Today a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged in the NE quadrant of the Sun near N15E17. It has a beta magnetic signature and should survive long enough to receive #11029 by NOAA/SWPC. This evening we officially have #11029 at N14E13.

Posted Tuesday October 20, 2009

Today NOAA/SWPC numbered a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group. It is #11028 and located at N26E51 with a simple alpha magnetic signature.

Posted Monday October 12, 2009

On Saturday October 10, 2009 a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged near N18W25. Unfortunately it didn't survive long enough to get numbered by NOAA/SWPC.

Posted Wednesday September 23, 2009

Yesterday evening NOAA/SWPC numbered the newest solar cycle 24 sunspot group 11027 at N24E32. The sunspot count is now 26 and the solar flux index is 75, the highest since April 1, 2008.

Posted Tuesday September 22, 2009

At 2119 UTC today fall begins in the northern hemisphere and spring begins in the southern hemisphere.

Yet another new solar cycle 24 sunspot group has emerged in the NE quadrant of the Sun. It should receive #11027 later today from NOAA/SWPC.

Sunspot group #11026 contains a simple alpha magnetic signature capable of producing very small B class solar flares.

Posted Monday September 21, 2009

A new solar cycle 24 sunspot emerged yesterday at S30E77. Today NOAA/SWPC gave it #11026 at location S29E63. In the past few days there had been allot
of hype concerning this new sunspot group and as I didn't want to followed the Pied Piper into the abyss, so I held off on posting about the sunspot
group until I could verify that it was actually a sunspot group and not another active Plage.

It remains to be seen what it's magnetic signature is and how fast if any that it grows in size and magnetic complexity. So far it has produced 11
sunspots and pushed the solar flux index to 73, the highest since Jun 01, 2009. #11026 has produced one very small B class solar flare in the past 48
hours and small C class solar flares are possible in future days.

Prior to the emergence of solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11026 we went 19 days without a sunspot group. Since January 01, 2009 we have seen 212 days
without a sunspot group.

Posted Tuesday September 15, 2009

There are two very small sunspots trying to emerge in the SW quadrant of the Sun. We can only hope against hope that they emerge and get assigned numbers 11026 and 11027.

Posted Saturday July 25, 2009

The Plage that I first mentioned on Thursday July 23, 2009 did produce one small short lived sunspot but NOAA/SWPC failed to assign it a number. The sunspot group did have a solar cycle 23 magnetic polarity. Solar cycle 23 is now 13 years and 3 months long from first spot to present one, a further extension of the already record long solar cycle!!!

Besides space plasma physics I also have education in paleoclimatology, meteorology and oceanography. Having said that I am becoming seriously concerned that we are really headed for a second "Dalton Minimum" and it's attendant global cooling for a period of 20-30 years. Another Dalton type Minimum would put quite a strain on resources such as food and petroleum.

Posted Thursday July 23, 2009

There is a growing solar Plage at approximately S16W11. It has the latitude of a solar cycle 23 magnetic disturbance and could begin producing sunspots during the next 48 hour period. If it were to produce sunspots we could be looking at a further extension of already record long solar cycle 23.

Or it could turn out to be a lower than normal latitude solar cycle 24 sunspot group. Stay tuned.

Posted Sunday July 5, 2009

At 0707 UTC this morning solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11024 released a small C 2.7 class solar flare. This the first C class flare of solar cycle 24 and the first C class solar flare since December 11, 2008.

Sunspot group #11024 is currently located at S26W01, which is geoeffective (Earth facing). If the C2.7 class solar flare released a coronal mass ejection (CME) it could create a minor geomagnetic storm on Earth a few days from now.

Sunspot group #11024 continues to grow in size and complexity and could release more small C class solar flares in future days. There is also a small chance that a medium size M class solar flare could also occur.

Posted Saturday July 04, 2009

This morning NOAA/SWPC assigned the new solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11024. It currently has a beta magnetic signature and continues to produce very small B class solar flares.

#11024 is growing in size and complexity and could produce small C class solar flares in coming days.

Posted Friday July 03, 2009

As I surmised on the July 01 post the solar cycle 24 sunspot group that first appeared near S27E45 and then faded has made a strong come back today. It appears to have four spots and has produced four very small B class solar flares. It should receive #11024 tomorrow by NOAA/SWPC if the holiday does not interfere.

Posted Wednesday July 01, 2009

Yesterday a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged in the SE quadrant of the Sun near S27E45. It did not survive long enough to receive a number by NOAA/SWPC. It may re-emerge later today.

Posted Monday June 22, 2009

Today a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged in the SW quadrant of the Sun near S22E41. NOAA/SWPC has assigned it #11023, with a beta magnetic signature.

We now have two solar cycle 24 sunspot groups visible on the surface of Sun, this is the first time that this has happened during the new solar cycle. We have seen four solar cycle 24 sunspot groups this month and six in the past 30 days. It appears that solar cycle 24 has finally come alive.

Posted Sunday June 21, 2009

Today a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged in the SW quadrant of the Sun at S27E15. This evening NOAA/SWPC assigned a number to the new solar cycle 24 sunspot group, #11022. It has a beta magnetic signature.

Posted Wednesday June 17, 2009

Today a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged in the SW quadrant of the Sun. Hopefully it will survive long enough to be numbered by NOAA/SWPC. If so it will be #11021.

This evening NOAA/SWPC assigned a number to the new solar cycle 24 sunspot group, #11021 at location S16W71.

Posted Tuesday June 9, 2009

On Monday a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged in the NE quadrant of the Sun at N22E07. NOAA/SWPC assigned it #11020. It has a beta magnetic signature and is capable of producing B class solar flares. The down side is that the sunspot group appears to be short lived, as most solar cycle 24 sunspot groups have been.

Posted Sunday May 31, 2009

Today a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged in the NE quadrant of the Sun. Hopefully it will survive long enough to be numbered by NOAA/SWPC. If so it will be #11019 and the third numbered solar cycle 24 sunspot group in the past two weeks.

This evening NOAA/SWPC assigned #11019 to the newest solar cycle 24 sunspot group. It is located at N27E41 and is the third numbered solar cycle 24 sunspot group of May 2009. It has a beta magnetic signature and is capable of producing B class solar flares.

Posted Saturday May 23, 2009

Today a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged near N32E50 but NOAA/SWPC and NOAA/SWPC assigned it #10118. It has a beta magnetic signature.

Today a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged near N18E27 and NOAA/SWPC assigned it #10117. It has a beta magnetic signature.

On Thursday solar cycle 23 sunspot group S740 re-emerged near S08W64. Today NOAA/SWPC assigned it #10116. Solar cycle 23 is now 13 years long from first spot to present one, an extension of the already record long solar cycle!!!

Today a new solar cycle 23 sunspot group emerged near S08W38. As has been the norm as of late it remains to be seen if it survives long enough for NOAA/SWPC to assign it a number, which would be #10116. Solar cycle 23 is now 13 years long from first spot to present one, an extension of the already record long solar cycle!!!

A new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged near N22W78 on Monday April 20, 2009. Today NOAA/SWPC assigned it #10115.

In keeping with the trend of a record long solar cycle 23, I'm revising my forecast a bit to a solar cycle 24 peak at a (SSN) smoothed sunspot number of 100 in July 2013.

My previous prediction made on February 1, 2008 was for a solar cycle 24 peak at a (SSN) smoothed sunspot number of 105 in October 2012.

A new sunspot group has emerged near N25W01. It has the latitude of a solar cycle 24 sunspot group. It appears to be a reemergence of the sunspot group that first appeared at N26E51 on Sunday March 22, 2009. As has been the norm as of late it remains to be seen if it survives long enough for NOAA/SWPC to assign it a number, which would be #10115.

A new sunspot group has emerged near N26E51. It has the latitude of a solar cycle 24 sunspot group but a magnetic signature of a solar cycle 23 sunspot group. It remains to be seen if it survives long enough for NOAA/SWPC to assign it a number, which would be #10115.

A new sunspot group has emerged near S04E03. It has the latitude of a solar cycle 23 sunspot group but a magnetic signature of a solar cycle 24 sunspot group. It remains to be seen if it survives long enough for NOAA/SWPC to assign it a number, which would be #10114.

On Friday evening NOAA/SWPC designated the new sunspot group #10114 and a solar cycle 23 sunspot group. Solar cycle 23 is now 12 years and 11 months long from first spot to present one, an extension of the already record long solar cycle!!!

On Tuesday February 24, 2009 a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged near N36E25. Today it was numbered #11013 by NOAA/SWPC.

On Wednesday February 12, 2009 yet another solar cycle 23 sunspot group formed, this time at approximately S06E52. It is numbered #11012 by NOAA/SWPC.

Solar cycle 23 is now 12 years and 11 months long from first spot to present one, a further extension of the already record long solar cycle!!!

On Tuesday January 27, 2009 yet another solar cycle 23 sunspot group (S738) formed near S05E40. If numbered by NOAA/SWPC it will be 11012.

Solar cycle 23 is now 12 years and 10 months long from first spot to present one, an extension of the already record long solar cycle!!!

This morning I took a second closer look at sunspot group #11011 images. Of course it certainly is at the latitude that you would expect a solar cycle 23 sunspot group to be located. Looking at it's magnetic signature it appears to be a solar cycle 23 sunspot group and could be what is left of old sunspot group #11008.

However looking at the images a third time I think I might also be seeing the magnetic signature of a solar cycle 24 sunspot group. Maybe it's a rare hybrid and can be classified as a rogue?! If it is a solar cycle 23 sunspot group then that cycle is now 12 years and 10 months long from first spot to present one, an extension of the already record long solar cycle!!!

On Sunday January 18, 2009 a new sunspot group formed near S12W25. On Monday January 19, 2009 it was numbered 11011 by NOAA/SWPC. Unfortunately it lasted less than two days before fading away.

It's location and magnetic polarity pointed towards a solar cycle 23 sunspot group. This sunspot further extends the length of already record long solar cycle 23 to past 13 years, if my memory serves me correctly. I will check on that number and revise if I'm incorrect.

A new solar cycle 24 sunspot group formed in the NE quadrant of the sun earlier today but at the moment position data is unavailable. It remains to be seen if the group will survive long enough to be numbered by NOAA/SWPC.

The new solar cycle 24 sunspot group located at S27W63 was numbered as 11006 on Thursday October 16, 2008 by NOAA/SWPC. This is the first time that two solar cycle 24 sunspot groups have been visible at the same time.

A new solar cycle 24 sunspot group formed in the SW quadrant of the sun on Wednesday October 15, 2008 but at the moment position data is unavailable. It remains to be seen if the group will survive long enough to be numbered as 11006 today by NOAA/SWPC.

Yesterday the new solar cycle 24 sunspot group was numbered as #11005 at N26E42 by the NOAA/SWPC. #11005 did push the solar flux index (SFI) to 71.8, the highest since May 15, 2008 when the SFI reached 71.9. Unfortunately though the 71.8 value was not high enough to boost propagation conditions on 17-10 meters.

The past 24 hour period has seen a significant geomagnetic storm event. So far the Ap has reached 111 which is at a severe geomagnetic storm level and the Kp has reached 7 which is at a strong geomagnetic storm level. This the most significant geomagnetic storm event since January 29, 2007 when the Ap and Kp reached the same values.

Yesterday solar cycle 23 sunspot group (S734) was numbered as 11004 by the NOAA/SWPC. If it's any consolation 11004 did push the solar flux index (SFI) to 70.4, the first time that we have seen a SFI value of 70 or higher since May 15, 2008 when the SFI reached 71.9.

Also a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group has formed in the NE quadrant of the sun but at the moment position data is unavailable. It appears that this sunspot group may be around for a while and will likely boost the daily solar flux index above 70.

A new solar cycle 23 sunspot group (S734) formed at S08W02 on Thursday October 09, 2008. It remains to be seen if the group will survive long enough to be numbered as 11004 today by NOAA/SWPC.

We have a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group. It is numbered 11003 and is located at S23 E28. Unfortunately it will probably not last very long.

.....With September passed, we now can calculate the 3-month average of sunspot numbers centered on August, which was 1.1. Compare that
with 3 month averages going back to June 2006.

Jun 06 28.9
Jul 06 23.3
Aug 06 23.5
Sep 06 21.2
Oct 06 24.1
Nov 06 23.1
Dec 06 27.3
Jan 07 22.7
Feb 07 18.5
Mar 07 11.2
Apr 07 12.2
May 07 15.8
Jun 07 18.7
Jul 07 15.4
Aug 07 10.2
Sep 07 5.4
Oct 07 3.0
Nov 07 6.9
Dec 07 8.1
Jan 08 8.5
Feb 08 8.4
Mar 08 8.4
Apr 08 8.9
May 08 5.0
Jun 08 3.7
Jul 08 2.0
Aug 08 1.1.....

On Friday February 1, 2008 I posted the following on this website (now in the archive) and I still stand by it:

.....I predict a solar cycle 24 peak at a (SSN) smoothed sunspot number of 105 in October 2012 and of course I hope that my forecast is incorrect. If correct solar cycle 24 would be smaller than the previous three. Also if correct solar cycle 24 will be smaller than the previous three and make for grim DXing on the higher HF bands and a cooling of the global climate.

Anecdotal evidence is pointing towards another Dalton Minimum. A Dalton Minimum is a miniature version of the infamous Maunder Minimum, where the number of sunspot groups drop to a below normal level and corresponding total energy output of the Sun also drops. This would bring on a mini ice age for a period of 30-50 years.

NOTE!!! A slow rise time in a solar cycle is indicative a relatively small maximum within the cycle, with a fast rise time indicative of a relatively large maximum within a solar cycle.....

A new solar cycle 24 sunspot group (S731) formed at N20 W12 on Sunday September 21, 2008. It should be numbered as 11002 today by NOAA/SWPC.

Officially the last solar cycle 24 sunspot group to form (#10993) was on May 4, 2008. Unofficially the last solar cycle 24 sunspot group to form was on August 2, 2008. For what ever reason NOAA/SWPC failed to number this sunspot group.

It appears that we are seeing a second minimum in solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24 may not get underway in earnest until winter 2009.

.....If we don't see any sunspots this weekend, Sunday will mark 42 consecutive days with no sunspots. This will also bring the 3-month
moving average for daily sunspot numbers (that we present monthly) clear down to 1.76, the lowest on this side of Cycle 23. This would
be the three month average centered on July

That makes the 3-month moving average for the past 14 months look like this:

Jun 07 18.7
Jul 07 15.4
Aug 07 10.2
Sep 07 5.4
Oct 07 3.0
Nov 07 6.9
Dec 07 8.1
Jan 08 8.5
Feb 08 8.4
Mar 08 8.4
Apr 08 8.9
May 08 5.0
Jun 08 3.7
Jul 08 1.8.....

It appears that we are seeing a second minimum in solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24 may not get underway in earnest until winter 2009.

.....This brings us to our practice of presenting the average daily sunspot number for the past three months, then comparing it with a monthly 3-month moving average for the past couple of years. There were 92 days in May, June and July, and 70 out of those 92 days had no sunspots. This brings us back toward the low of 3 from last fall, centered on October. The average daily sunspot number for the last three months, centered on June, was just 3.7.....

Jun 06 28.9
Jul 06 23.3
Aug 06 23.5
Sep 06 21.2
Oct 06 24.1
Nov 06 23.1
Dec 06 27.3
Jan 07 22.7
Feb 07 18.5
Mar 07 11.2
Apr 07 12.2
May 07 15.8
Jun 07 18.7
Jul 07 15.4
Aug 07 10.2
Sep 07 5.4
Oct 07 3
Nov 07 6.9
Dec 07 8.1
Jan 08 8.5
Feb 08 8.4
Mar 08 8.4
Apr 08 8.9
May 08 5
Jun 08 3.7

Today's 1700/2000/2300 UTC solar flux index readings were as follows; 64.2 64.6 64.6. The 64.2 reading is the lowest of solar cycle 23 and the lowest since the 64.5 which occurred on July 18, 1996 at the bottom of solar cycle 22. From memory (and it may be incorrect) the 64.2 is the lowest SFI ever measured.

On July 11, 2008 NASA solar physicist David Hathaway published an article http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/11jul_solarcycleupdate.htm stating that the length of the current lull between solar cycle 23 and 24 is within the realm of normalcy. With all due respect I think that he missing the forest for the trees. The real issue is that the length of solar cycle 23, from it's first visible spot in May 1996 through the most recent one now is 12.4 years, which is the longest solar cycle in recorded history. The current lull may last into winter 2009 which would make the current lull the longest on record also.

Just an FYI! My memory was incorrect concerning the historical significance of the 64.2 SFI reading of yesterday. Thanks to Mark AB7MP for correcting
me, as the reading was the second lowest ever recorded. The lowest SFI was 62.6 on November 3, 1954!!!

As follows are recent month sunspot number averages. May took a big dip from April. Solar cycle 24 continues in the stalled mode and could continue to do so through winter 2009.

October- 2007 3.0
November- 2007 6.9
December 2007- 8.1
January- 2008- 8.5
February- 2008- 8.4
March 2008- 8.4
April 2008- 8.9
May 2008- 5.0

Just an FYI! On Saturday 06/21/2008 the three daily solar flux values measured at Pentiction, BC, Canada were 64.6 64.8 65.2. The 64.6 value is the second lowest of the current solar minimum. The lowest SFI of 64.4 occurred on 09/28/2007. Solar cycle 24 continues in the stalled mode and could continue to do so through late winter 2009.

Just an FYI! On Sunday 06/08/2008 the three solar flux values measured at Pentiction, BC, Canada were 64.8 64.9 64.9. The 64.8 value is the second
lowest of the current solar minimum. The lowest SFI of 64.4 occurred on 09/28/2007.

Using the smoothed sunspot number solar cycle 23 minimum was in October 2007 with a value of 3.0. Looking at the values below you can see that solar
cycle 24 has pretty much stalled since December 2007.

October 2007- 3.0
November 2007- 6.9
December 2007- 8.1
January 2008- 8.5
February 2008- 8.4
March 2008- 8.4
April 2008- 8.9

We have a brand new S725 (but as of yet unnumbered by the NOAA/SWPC) sunspot group and it has the magnetic polarity and latitude of a solar cycle 24 sunspot group. Hopefully this one will be numbered by NOAA/SWPC and if it is it will be the fourth sunspot group of solar cycle 24.

At this point it is a lone small spot that will not impact the upper HF bands in a positive manner. However it is a continued step in the right direction for emerging solar cycle 24.

We have a brand new sunspot group #10993 that was numbered by NOAA SWPC today. It is the third solar cycle 24 sunspot group. It emerged yesterday as S724.

At this point it is a lone small spot that will not impact the upper HF bands in a positive manner. However it is a continued step in the right direction for emerging solar cycle 24.

We have a brand new (but as of yet unnumbered by the SWPC) sunspot group and it has the magnetic polarity and latitude of a solar cycle 24 sunspot group. Hopefully unlike last weeks (S721 on April 8th) unnumbered sunspot, this one will be numbered by NOAA/SWPC.

At this point it is a lone small spot that will not impact the upper HF bands in a positive manner. However it is a continued step in the right direction for emerging solar cycle 24.

I borrowed the following information from the DXLC website at http://www.dxlc.com/solar/index.html .

.....At midnight there was 1 spotted region on the visible solar disk. The solar flare activity level was very low. Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC: [S722] This cycle 24 region developed small spots on April 13. Location at midnight: N27E30.....

We finally have a second solar cycle #24 sunspot group! It was numbered today by NOAA/SWPC as 10990 at N26E20. I never thought that I would see a day when such a tiny sunspot could be such a big deal!

As of Tuesday evening UTC 04/08/2008 it appears that we have a brand new (but as of yet unnumbered by the SWPC) sunspot group and it has the magnetic polarity and latitude of a solar cycle 24 sunspot group. At this point it is a lone small spot that will not impact the upper HF bands in a positive manner. However it is a step in the right direction for emerging solar cycle 24.

I borrowed the following information from the DXLC website at http://www.dxlc.com/solar/index.html .

.....Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC: [S721] This region emerged on April 7 in the southeast quadrant with a single, tiny spot. Location at midnight: S28E14.....

Unfortunately though the sunspot degenerated into a spotless Plage before NOAA/SWPC could get around to numbering it. As already mentioned above, it is a step in the right direction for emerging solar cycle 24.

Posted Monday March 31, 2008:
As mentioned above on January 4, 2008 it was declared by the NOAA SWPC that solar cycle 24 had begun based on the first reversed polarity sunspot cycle group but that was just to end the suspense. We are not at that point yet. As of March 31, 2008 we have seen only eleven sunspot groups since January 1st. Of those eleven, seven are solar cycle 23 sunspot groups. By the way as of March 1, 2008 solar cycle 23 has now set a new record for the longest solar cycle in recorded history.

Therefore in my professional opinion though we have seen the beginning of solar cycle #24 on January 4, 2008, the bottom of solar cycle 23 is winning the battle at the moment. From an improved propagation point of view there is no difference between the bottom of solar cycle 23 and the beginning of solar cycle 24.

Posted Saturday March 1, 2008:
Courtesy of www.spaceweather.com on Friday January 4, 2008: SOLAR CYCLE 24:

.....Solar physicists have been waiting for the appearance of a reversed-polarity sunspot to signal the start of the next solar cycle. The wait is over. A magnetically reversed, high-latitude sunspot emerged today: image. If you have a solar telescope, take a look at this important new active region. It marks the beginning of Solar Cycle 24 and the sun's slow ascent back to Solar Maximum.....

Unfortunately there is no official definition as to when a new sunspot cycle begins. It is generally accepted that when the number of solar cycle 24 sunspot group numbers surpass the number of solar cycle 23 sunspot group numbers solar cycle 24 will be underway. This will probably not occur for a
few more months or so.

It's easier to look back and declare that a solar cycle is already underway then to predict when it will begin. As of this moment we still can't point to the month that the lowest smoothed sunspot number occurred, to be able to point to the arrival of the bottom of solar cycle 23, however October 2007 looks like a good candidate.

NOAA/SWPC predicted that solar cycle 24 would begin in January 2007, which did not occur. Their next prediction was for March 2007, which did not occur. Their latest prediction is now for February 2008.

The SWPC currently has two forecasts out for solar cycle 24. Forecast #1 calls for a sunspot number peak of 140 in October 2011. Forecast #2 calls for a sunspot number peak of 90 in August 2012.

I predict a solar cycle 24 peak at a (SSN) smoothed sunspot number of 105 in October 2012 and of course I hope that my forecast is incorrect. If correct solar cycle 24 would be smaller than the previous two and make for grim DXing on the higher HF bands and a cooling of the global climate.

Posted on Tuesday January 1, 2008:
Anecdotal evidence points to solar cycle 23 minimum in October 2007 with a monthly International Sunspot Index (ISSI) number of 0.9. The lowest daily solar flux reading since July 1996 of 64.4 occurred on September 28, 2007. The lowest maximum daily Solar Flux Index (SFI) reading since October 1996 of 71 occurred on September 01, 2007.

However a brand new Coronal Hole #299 formed on 11/14/2007, then #301 on 11/24/2007 and #302 on 11/30/2007. We have also seen new sunspot group activity on November 6, 2007, November 13, 2007, between November 24-26, 2007 and December 01-07, 2007. All of these recent sunspot groups carry a solar cycle 23 magnetic polarity.

This put’s in doubt the anecdotal evidence that solar cycle #23 bottomed out in October 2007. However we will have to see what the Smoothed Sunspot Number (SSN) is for September and October 2007.

Some good news for pending solar cycle 24 beginning is a new mid latitude Plage that rose above the eastern horizon of the Sun on Wednesday December 12, 2007. It has a magnetic polarity of a solar cycle 24 sunspot group. Often times a Plage is a fore runner of an emerging sunspot group. Check out the following NASA site about it. Is A New Solar Cycle Beginning?