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Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my radiowave propagation forecast. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2012 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O. Reproduction of and distribution of the propagation forecast herein is allowed without advanced permission as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts are not official but for hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. 

Published on Friday May 25, 2012 at 0000 UTC. Valid 0000 UTC Saturday May 26, 2012 through 2359 UTC Friday Jun 01, 2012

1.) GLOBAL MEDIUM FREQUENCY (300-3000 KC) RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND AND 160 METERS-

Medium frequency (300-3000 kc) radiowave propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic disturbances (Kp-3-4) and geomagnetic storms (Kp-5 & >) that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the general altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels (>A0), proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) and galactic cosmic rays.

There is also the issue of magneto ionic power coupling. Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul DX contact. As a medium frequency RF signal traverses Earth's magnetic lines of force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3 land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily absorbed than lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other propagation paths on the globe opposite results can be found, i.e., horizontally polarized signals suffer less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W6 or S9 and W4.
 

Note! This forecast is based upon quiet solar, space and geomagnetic weather conditions. Geomagnetic storming Kp-5> and energetic proton storms >10 MeV (10+0) can at times render the forecast temporarily inaccurate.

Magnetic Equator-

FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-

Forecasted Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in

excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Forecasted Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in

excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Propagation Forecast Scale-

Lower HF (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic storms that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels and proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to geomagnetic storms. D layer signal absorption due to elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) and elevated background solar flux levels, is usually but not always inconsequential on 20-10 meters.

As follows are examples of how to apply the propagation forecast to your location (QTH).

(1) If you live in Tampa, FL, USA and want to work into Salt Lake City, UT, USA which is an approximate 2000 Mi/3200 km distance, the forecast is for good propagation conditions.

(1) If you live in London, England and want to work into Moscow, Russia which is an approximate 2000 Mi/3200 km distance, the forecast is for good propagation conditions.

(2) If you live in New York City, NY and want to work into London, England which is an approximate 4000 Mi/6500 km distance, the forecast is for good propagation conditions.

(2) If you live in Moscow, Russia and want to work into Perth, Australia which is an approximate 8000 Mi/13000 km distance the forecast is for good propagation conditions.

As far as band openings:

Short= 100-500 miles

160 meters is open at day time out to short distances and medium to long distances at night time, best in winter.

80 and 60 meters are open at day time out to short and medium distances and long distances at night time, best in winter.

40 and 30 meters are open at day time out to short and medium distances and long distances at night time in summer, closed in winter close in but open long distances.

20 and 17 meters are open at day time out to medium to long distances in winter, also long distances at night time during solar maximum, closed at solar minimum and in winter night time.

15, 12 and 10 meters are open at day time out to short to medium distances in summer due to Es propagation, medium to long distances in winter, also medium to long distances at night time during solar maximum, closed at solar minimum and in winter night time.

6 meters is open at day time out to short and medium distances in summer via Es propagation, medium to long distances via F2 propagation at the peak of some solar cycles. Other propagation modes such as direct wave, Aurora E, troposphere ducting, meteor scatter and trans-equatorial propagation can occur at any time, day, season and year.

For a more comprehensive explanation of radiowave propagation characteristics for 160-10 meters check out  http://www.astrosurf.com/luxorion/qsl-propa4.htm .

Note! This forecast is based upon quiet solar, space and geomagnetic weather conditions. Geomagnetic storming Kp-5> and energetic proton storms >10 MeV (10+0) can at times render the forecast temporarily inaccurate.

Magnetic Equator-

FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE GLOBAL HF CONDITIONS BY BAND-

             BAND                  DAY-NIGHT

FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE GLOBAL HF CONDITIONS BY BAND-

             BAND                  DAY-NIGHT

80, 60, 40, 30 Meters	Fair-Good
20, 17, 15 Meters	Good-Good
12, 10 Meters	Fair To Good-Poor

 

FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE GLOBAL HF CONDITIONS BY LATITUDE-

Low latitude	Normal
Mid latitude	Normal
High latitude	Normal

 

FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE GLOBAL HF CONDITIONS BY LATITUDE-

Low latitude	Normal
Mid latitude	Normal
High latitude	Normal

 

FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 80, 60, 40, 30 METERS VIA SHORT PATH-

East <-> West To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Fair To Good
West <-> East To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Fair To Good
North <-> South To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Fair To Good
South <-> North To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Fair To Good

 

FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 80, 60, 40, 30 METERS VIA SHORT PATH-

East -> West To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Good
West -> East To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Good
North -> South To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Good
South -> North To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Good

 

FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 20, 17, 15 METERS VIA SHORT PATH-

East <-> West To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Fair To Good
West <-> East To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Fair To Good
North <-> South To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Fair To Good
South <-> North To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Fair To Good

 

FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 20, 17, 15 METERS VIA SHORT PATH-

East -> West To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Good
West -> East To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Good
North -> South To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Good
South -> North To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Good

 

FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 12, 10 METERS VIA SHORT PATH-

East -> West To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Fair
West -> East To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Fair
North -> South To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Fair
South -> North To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Fair

 

FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE 12, 10 METERS VIA SHORT PATH-

East -> West To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Good
West -> East To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Good
North -> South To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Good
South -> North To 2000 Mi/3200 km	Good

 

FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VIA LONG PATH-

80, 60, 40, 30 meters

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions greater than

2000 mi/3200 km.

Low Latitude	Fair To Good
Mid Latitude	Fair To Good
High Latitude	Fair To Good

 

FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VIA LONG PATH-

80, 60, 40, 30 meters

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions greater than 2000 mi/3200 km.

Low Latitude	Good
Mid Latitude	Good
High Latitude	Good

 

FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VIA LONG PATH-

20, 17, 15 meters

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions greater than

2000 mi/3200 km.

Low Latitude	Fair To Good
Mid Latitude	Fair To Good
High Latitude	Fair To Good

 

FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VIA LONG PATH-

20, 17, 15 meters

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions greater than

2000 mi/3200 km.

Low Latitude	Good
Mid Latitude	Good
High Latitude	Good

 

 

 

FORECASTED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE VIA LONG PATH-

12, 10 meters

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions greater than

2000 mi/3200 km.

Low Latitude	Fair
Mid Latitude	Fair
High Latitude	Fair

 

FORECASTED SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE VIA LONG PATH-

12, 10 meters

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions greater than

2000 mi/3200 km.

Low Latitude	Good
Mid Latitude	Good
High Latitude	Good

 

Note!!! At times propagation conditions on 10 meters will be Good, via the less predictable Sporadic E (Es) and trans-equatorial (TE) propagation modes which involve the F2/3 layer.

 

HF Propagation Forecast Scale-

Excellent	S9+1 Or Better
Good	S7-S9
Fair	S4-S6
Poor	S1-S3
None	S0

 

Meter Band Equivalents

Ham           SWL

160              90

80                75

60                60

40                49, 41               

30                31, 25

20                22, 19

17                16, 15

15                13

12, 10          11

 

3.) GLOBAL 50000-54000 KC (6 METER) MODES PROPAGATION FORECAST-

F2	NO
Sporadic E (Es)	YES
Aurora E High Latitude	YES
Aurora E Mid Latitude	NO
Troposphere Ducting	YES
Transequatorial (TE) F2/F3	YES
Meteor Scatter	NO, excluding random meteors, lightning bolt plasma channels, space junk and alien spacecraft

 

For more information about meteor shower events check out http://stardate.org/nightsky/meteors .

 

VHF Propagation Forecast Scale-

Excellent	S9+1 Or Better
Good	S7-S9
Fair	S4-S6
Poor	S1-S3
None	S0

 

For global real time information concerning 6 meter band openings check out the VHFDX website at:

http://www.vhfdx.info/spots/map.php 

A good source of information concerning 6 meter band openings via troposphere ducting in the U.S. is at:

http://www.dxinfocentre.com/tropo.html

 

 

4.) GLOBAL LIGHTNING NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-

U.S. near real time lightning strike data:

http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html

A global view of near real time lightning strike data:

http://webflash.ess.washington.edu  

 

 

Northern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter season proximity

to the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) as well as cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low

pressure systems.

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect HIGH TO VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter

season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

 

Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to winter

season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

 

Southern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer season

proximity to the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect HIGH TO VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer

season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems, as well as tropical warm core low pressure systems.
 
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to summer

season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

 

Lightning Induced Noise (QRN) Forecast Scale-

Very High	>+1 db Over S9
High	S7-9
Moderate	S4-6
Low	S1-3
None	S0

 

5.) GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF/HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2012 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

1.) Dropping magnetic field indices numbers are better.

2.) For high frequencies a solar flux of 150 or higher, 200+ best, for medium frequencies under 100, fewer than 70 best.

3.) For high and medium frequencies a solar flux in the mid 100’s for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
 
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than A1 for several days consecutively.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path Aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -20 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a Geomagnetic Storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

 

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my radiowave propagation forecasts. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the propagation forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore this propagation forecast contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2012 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O. Reproduction of and distribution of the propagation forecast herein is allowed without advanced permission as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts are not official but for hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. 

 

SOLAR CYCLE 24 FORECAST DISCUSSION ARCHIVE

NZ4O 160 METER (MF) RADIO PROPAGATION THEORY NOTES

NZ4O SOLAR SPACE WEATHER & GEOMAGNETIC DATA DASHBOARD

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NZ4O DAILY SOLAR SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC DATA ARCHIVE

SUBSCRIBE TO COL LF/MF/HF/VHF/UHF FREQUENCY RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION EMAIL REFLECTOR

You can contact me
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA at

thomasfgiella at tampabay dot rr dot com

 

MF/HF/6M RADIOWAVE FORECAST ARCHIVE

2012 NZ4O MF/HF/6M RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #21

2012 NZ4O MF/HF/6M RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #20

2012 NZ4O MF/HF/6M RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #19

2012 NZ4O MF/HF/6M RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #18

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HF/6M RADIOWAVE FORECAST ARCHIVE

2012 NZ4O HF/6M RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #16

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MF RADIOWAVE FORECAST ARCHIVE

2012 NZ4O MF (300-3000 KC) RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #16

2012 NZ4O MF (300-3000 KC) RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #15

2012 NZ4O MF (300-3000 KC) RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #14

2012 NZ4O MF (300-3000 KC) RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #13

2012 NZ4O MF (300-3000 KC) RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #12